After this idea came up, Qiao Liang was startled by himself at first, thinking that he might be thinking too much, but the more he turned his head to analyze, he felt that this possibility did exist.

Whatever Mr. Pei does, there must be deep meaning!

For the game "Fitness Wars", how to do this lottery system does not necessarily have much impact on the profitability of the game itself.

Even if it is changed to a regular draw, the players who should draw it will still draw.

And since Mr. Pei is so radical to make the lottery system into its current state, there must be a certain intention in it.

This intention is not yet apparent, but it is likely that Mr. Pei predicted the possible reaction of the players.

Therefore, if you want to really analyze Mr. Pei's intentions, you still have to start from the reactions of the players.

Qiao Liang immediately looked for posts on the Internet about the "Fitness Wars" lottery and analyzed the portraits of different user groups.

He quickly found a lot of cases.

Because the desire of players to post orders seems to be much higher than that of other games.

Whether you are particularly lucky or unlucky, you are very keen to post the results of the lottery on the Internet.

If you analyze according to the traditional krypton gold game, the player group that can charge money is generally divided into micro krypton, medium krypton and heavy krypton, the boundaries are relatively blurred, and they can be converted to each other, but the overall demarcation is the amount of money charged.

But in "Fitness Wars," that distinction doesn't seem to work.

For example, if someone charges 100,000 yuan, he leaves his favorite orders and refunds all the others after a click, and only spends more than 1,000 yuan in the end, so is this a medium krypton or a heavy krypton?

This is rare, but it certainly exists.

Qiao Liang read a lot of cases on the Internet and found that they were really varied and strange.

For example, someone drew five consecutive tens, and the result was all blue sky and white clouds, so a purple prop came out, and the result was not what he wanted.

So this guy laughed and cried and refunded them all.

If it was in another game, he might have to ask customer service for an explanation, but since Fitness Wars refunds casually, let's come back in three days.

There are also people who draw three consecutive ten-draws, all of which are orange-bursting, originally he planned to pick one of the best results of the ten-consecutive draw to keep, and the other two ten-consecutive draws were all refunded, and this time there will be no refund, and he is excitedly showing off on the Internet.

There is one of the most bizarre ones, I really drew more than 50 ten consecutive draws, and I kept a ten consecutive draw of two oranges, and all the others were refunded, and I was very proud to post that I was the "king of wool", and I suggested that everyone should learn from themselves to make Tengda bald.

There are even people who use this lottery system as a testing ground, anyway, all of them can be refunded, and the lottery and refund are equivalent to no money, and they can have a good time with the lottery addiction.

These strange situations are never seen in the lottery system of other games.

Even if the players of other games are exposed, I am afraid that there are only two results: "Europe" and "non". Of course, Europe may be very European, but what is not is not necessarily too wrong.

"Tengda's lottery mechanism...... Seems to be a true probability? ”

Qiao Liang suddenly had an idea, and listed the differences between the traditional lottery mode and the lottery mode of "Fitness Wars" on the document.

"True probability" is relative to "false probability".

It would be a mistake to think that the traditional lottery model is purely based on probability.

Qiao Liang also consciously made up a lot of knowledge of game design, and knew very well that the lottery in the game was never a true probability, but a false probability.

Of course, the fake probability is not all about the merchant making money, and sometimes it is also to ensure the player's feelings.

This point can only be understood with a relatively basic knowledge of probability.

For example, if a merchant sets a product with a 20% explosion rate, this is already very high.

Then, when the number of players is large enough and the sample is large enough, the number of players who draw this product for the first time is about 20%, which is easy to understand.

However, the probability of not winning five draws in a row is five 80% multiplied, which is 0.32768, which means that about 30% of players will not draw five times in a row.

And the probability that it won't come out even ten times is ten 80% multiplied, which is about 0.1, which is 10%.

A prop with a 20% explosion rate, if calculated according to the probability, 10% of players will not even draw ten times.

And if you add more, the probability that you won't even draw 20 times is 1%.

Assuming 100,000 people participate in the draw, 1% is 1,000 people.

There are 1,000 people who can't draw a thing with a 20% explosion rate even 20 times, can they accept it?

This obviously doesn't match their intuition: isn't something with a 20% explosion rate sure out five times?

But the probability of this thing is originally different from person to person, and a 20% explosion rate is not equal to five times of certain out, and there is no guarantee that ten times will be out.

The probability cannot be accurate to a certain individual, and only when the data sample is large enough, the true probability will be infinitely close to the theoretical data.

That is, once smoked, anything can happen; But if you draw 100 million times, the probability of coming out will be infinitely close to 20 million times.

But people who don't know the basics of probability don't know this.

It is conceivable that if these 1,000 people have not even drawn out a thing with a 20% explosion rate for 20 times, they will definitely go to the forum to make trouble, and how much public opinion pressure will there be at that time?

And most of them are medium or heavy krypton players, will they participate in the event again after getting such a lottery experience? It's good-tempered not to uninstall the game directly.

Therefore, in order to avoid this situation, many game manufacturers will set false probabilities in the game.

That is to say, if a 20% explosion rate is not drawn out by the player for the first time, the explosion rate of the second time will be increased, and if it is not released for the fifth time, then 100% will be released.

In this way, you can ensure that no matter how bad the player's luck is, there is always a guarantee.

From this point of view, the false probability does have a certain effect on protecting the player.

But the problem is that since the game company has made a fake probability, it is definitely impossible to protect only the interests of players, they naturally have to protect their own interests.

For example, a very precious prop worth tens of thousands of dollars, even if the explosion rate is 0.1%, if 100,000 players participate in the lottery, there will be 100 lucky people who will be in the soul at one shot, and more than 90 lucky people will come out twice......

If it's an unlimited number of precious items, it doesn't matter.

But what if in order for this prop to maintain its value, the official wants to limit it to 500 or 1,000 copies?

According to this drawing method, the people who really get the props are not necessarily the people who charge the most money, but most of them are the real European emperors.

Maybe the local tyrant didn't come out after charging a few thousand yuan, but someone came out as soon as he fired it.

was siphoned off by these European emperors, and the local tyrants would be psychologically unbalanced regardless of whether they were drawn out or not, because even if the local tyrants were drawn, they must have spent far more than the European emperor's money.

Luck and money ability, there is no balance.

Therefore, game companies often set a prerequisite at this time, that is, it is possible to draw this thing after accumulating the amount of money consumed XX, and the more money you charge, the greater the probability of drawing.

And doing so is also in line with the psychological expectations of most players: I only smoked once, and it is normal that I didn't come out; The local tyrant has smoked dozens of times, and it is reasonable to come out.

But in fact, this has long been arranged by game manufacturers through fake probabilities.

In this way, game companies ensure the consumption experience of local tyrants, so as to maintain their desire to consume, and naturally maintain their own income and reputation.

It is the interests of the small group of pure European emperors who are sacrificed, but it doesn't matter, because they don't know that they are actually pure European emperors, and they don't know that they can actually pull out this precious prop in one shot, and they think it's normal that they don't pull it out.

And players have no way to verify the authenticity of the data, because whether it is the detailed rules of the lottery or the data after the lottery, they are in the hands of the game company, and players have no channels to contact them.

And Mr. Pei's lottery model is obviously a real probability, that is to say, 20% is 20%, and it doesn't matter if a thousand people can't even draw 20 times, I'll give you a full refund and it's over.

After in-depth comparison of the two different lottery models, Qiao Liang suddenly had an idea.

Could it be that Pei always wants to deconstruct the traditional lottery model through this new type of lottery model? Make some players realize that what they think is a lottery is nothing more than a framework drawn by a game company? ”

"And Tengda's lottery actually took the initiative to break this framework and give players an absolutely fair, but a little uncomfortable real probability?"

"That'...... It's an almost impossible task! ”

Qiao Liang couldn't help but be in awe of Mr. Pei.

The false probability has long been accompanied by the lottery system, and even before the lottery function of many games, some websites and APPs have already done it.

But after all these years, few people have questioned this kind of thing.

On the contrary, more and more players are beginning to get used to and are keen on lottery, and more and more businesses have researched a variety of lotteries that take care of players' feelings on the surface and are actually more convenient for themselves to make money.

For game companies, the lottery system is equivalent to a stable cash cow, so that whether it is a terminal game, a mobile game, or even a casual activity for many merchants, they have begun to draw frequently.

If someone earns, then naturally someone loses.

Game companies like to do sweepstakes so much, and they definitely don't lose money.

Isn't it obvious who loses then?

And Mr. Pei's lottery system is obviously to pierce this veil, tell the players the cruel truth, and change the status quo!

Of course, the current situation is not promising.

Because the vast majority of gamers do not have the relevant knowledge of game design, and human nature is to try their luck and take advantage.

Many people like lottery, you tell him to talk about probability, expectation, and lottery is very pitiful, he can't listen to it at all, he must think that he is the lucky one, and even was pitted, spent a lot of money to draw out a bunch of garbage and then insisted that it was just that he was unlucky this time, and he would definitely be able to draw what he wanted next time.

And the general merchants will obviously only try their best to tell consumers that the lottery is a kind of preferential activity, and the players and merchants are mutually beneficial, and it is very cost-effective to draw a lottery.

At most, it is to use a very small line of words in the lottery to remind me: the lottery is risky, and the recharge needs to be cautious.

But this kind of hint is sure to be small and small, and most people don't take it to heart at all.

After this analysis, Qiao Liang came to a rather astonishing conclusion.

"Mr. Pei's behavior, isn't he cutting off all the financial routes of the lottery?"

"Although it may not be successful, Mr. Pei is really working hard to use the lottery system of "Fitness Wars" to contrast with other lotteries, so that everyone can better see the so-called lottery facts."

"Even if not many people will appreciate it in the end, even if it will attract crazy attacks from other companies that are counting on lottery to make money, I don't care."

"What a good intention!"

Qiao Liang couldn't help but sigh, this kind of thing is only done by Mr. Pei, willing to do, and dare to do!

It's just that most people are too slow to react, and they don't perceive Mr. Pei's good intentions at all.

We must come up with a video to explain the key to this, and we can't let Mr. Pei's hard work be in vain!

The lottery activities of the finger company and the Longyu Group seem to be conscientious, but it is only compared with other lotteries that are too black to be blackened.

In fact, it is still a change of soup and not of medicine, even if it is discounted, it is still trying to find a way to make money from players!

Compared with Tengda's approach, what conscience can there be?