As a matter of common sense, a country or region tends to be accompanied by inflation during periods of high economic growth. Compared to the double-digit national economic growth rate in the Far East in 1621, a 5% rise in the price index in a quarter does not seem to be worth the fuss. However, considering that prices in the era of the gold and silver standard have remained stable for a long time, coupled with the abnormal month-on-month surge in prices, Roland has to admit that there are indeed abnormal signs of inflation.

"Inflation isn't scary, it's a question of finding out what is driving it, Katya, you should have found the answer, right?" Roland cast a trusting glance at his vice president.

Katya smiled but didn't answer, and snapped her fingers handsomely. With a crisp snap, a statistical chart of spells appeared in the air, with time as the horizontal axis and purchasing power as the vertical axis, the curve remained basically stable throughout last year, and it was not until the end of the year that it suddenly probed downward, and it remained in a downward trajectory after the year.

"This is the true purchasing power index of Quintal, which can be seen to show signs of depreciation at the end of 1621, and this statistical result happens to coincide with the rise in the price index, and we have come to the conclusion that the depreciation of gold coins is highly correlated with the rise in prices."

"Quintal depreciation......" Roland couldn't help frowning, "there are counterfeit gold coins on the market?" "Counterfeit gold coins are entering the market in large quantities, which is likely to lead to inflation.

"The central bank's findings rule out this possibility." A strange smile tugged at Katya's lips, "In fact, the culprits of inflation are probably the real gold talers compared to the shoddy gold coins. ”

Roland was slightly moved. As a time-traveler from the 21st century, he has the impression that "inflation" is often highly related to the indiscriminate issuance of paper money by a country's government. In a world where credit money is common, paper money is decoupled from gold, and it is difficult for a government to control the urge to over-issue paper money to cover fiscal deficits.

However, paper money is not a necessary condition for inflation, and anything that floods the market with too much will depreciate, and gold, which is seen as a symbol of wealth, is no exception. Even in the era of the gold standard on earth, there was inflation due to the abundance of gold - the Spanish colonial empire brought back to the mother country a ship full of South American gold, which led to the rise in prices in Spain, and even the whole of Europe was affected by the gold flood and fell into inflation.

Precious metals such as gold and silver are commonly used as currencies in the world of Vares, and the kingdom of Kolas is no exception. Since gold is used as currency, a relative surplus of gold will inevitably cause prices to rise and inflation.

"In the past year, due to the impact of trade protection policies, we have earned a lot of gold in import and export trade; Second, the treasury bonds issued by the Far East are denominated in gold, and the underwriting of Far Eastern treasury bonds by banks of various countries has led to the concentrated remittance of a total of 100 million gold thalers into the Far East in a short period of time. In addition, after the conflict on the southern border of Xinjiang, we reached an agreement with Canaan to obtain a total of 10 million gold tales in compensation, which was also paid in gold; In the end, the news of the discovery of a huge gold mine in Mt. Mochizuki was publicly disclosed, and after being reprinted by many newspapers and periodicals, it has now spread to the gods, especially those third-rate tabloids, in order to attract the attention of readers, boasting that the output of the gold mine in Mt. Mochizuki is more than ten times higher than the actual output, as if any stone picked up on the mountain is yellow and clear gold......" Katya shrugged his shoulders, "These objective factors and rumors have caused people to feel that gold coins are becoming less and less valuable, but the bank interest rate has not been adjusted at the same time, which remains low, seems like a better option for people to spend it as soon as possible in order to avoid the depreciation of the quintal in their own pockets. ”

Roland couldn't laugh or cry. As Katya said, the authorities in the Far East received a significant amount of off-budget gold revenue during the year. However, most of the gold, including national debt, war reparations, and gold minerals, was kept in the treasury safely, and the Ministry of Finance revised the minting plan in accordance with economic development, and did not put it into circulation.

Compared with the economic growth rate, the central bank does not issue much more gold coins, and the amount of gold coins in circulation calculated on paper should not show significant signs of inflation, and the reason why people have the illusion of gold coin flooding is mainly because they have received wrong information and have been deceived by public opinion.

When news of the huge gold mine in Mt. Mochizuki spread, people expected a depreciation of gold, and the depreciation of gold coins meant that prices would rise. In order to hoard daily necessities before prices rise, scrambling to join the shopping army, people's inflation expectations are self-fulfilling, further exacerbating the depreciation of gold, driving inflation up, in a word - the rumors of "wolf coming" are intensifying, smart people have begun to strengthen "anti-wolf" measures, as for whether the "wolf" is really coming, it is not so important.

In addition to inflation, what is the impact of excess gold coin liquidity? Roland naturally made the association.

"Katya, have you counted the changes in the purchasing power of Silver Thaler?"

"That's exactly what I'm going to say next." Katya smiled knowingly, and with the flick of her fingers, cast a spell, and a statistical chart appeared in the air, which at first glance looked much like the price rise curve.

"This is the silver price change curve from January last year to February this year, it is not difficult to see that the trend of silver prices is highly consistent with the price trend, that is to say, while the purchasing power of gold is depreciating, the purchasing power of silver is rising rapidly, and the gold and silver price ratio is seriously dislocated!" Katya retracted her smile and turned cold, "According to the official price, one gold thaler is constantly exchanged for 10 silver thalers, but from the perspective of actual purchasing power, 1 gold thaler is only equivalent to 9 silver thalers, as far as I know, some people are already ready to move, if the central bank does not come up with countermeasures to calm the gold and silver price comparison as soon as possible, those 'smart people' will not be able to hold back their greed and take action to use the deviation between the official price comparison and the actual price for speculative arbitrage, Your Highness, this is probably not the result you want to see!" ”

Thinking of the arbitrage space pointed out by Katya, Roland's mood is quite complicated. The current predicament is unexpected, but it makes sense to think about it.

The countries of Vares, including the Far East, generally practice a composite standard of gold, silver and copper.

A surplus of gold coins will not have much of an impact on copper coins. To put it bluntly, those who use mostly gold coins and those who use mostly copper coins live in two worlds that are almost isolated. Those homeless and poor peasants, the monetary assets are nothing more than a few copper plates in their pockets, whether the depreciation of gold coins by 10% or 20% has no effect on their lives, they still can't possess the gold coins. But silver is different, silver coins are worth more than copper coins, and those who use gold coins also use silver coins, and silver coins have the ability to make an impact on the status of gold coins.