Chapter 489 Interpreting the Recent RMB Depreciation and the Ministry of Commerce's Negative List
Jiang Gan came to the news again: "On July 3, 2018, the National Business Daily reported: The RMB fell below 6.7 against the US dollar, depreciating by 7% in 75 days, and the deputy governor of the central bank said that China is confident that the RMB will remain stable within a reasonable range. ”
Wang Qiang was stunned: "Wait! Didn't you say last time that the Fed was playing with suicidal interest rate hikes, and the dollar would return to China, and China would not follow, it should appreciate, cut interest rates, cut the reserve ratio, and what enemy retreated and I advanced, and the RMB was internationalized? Why has the renminbi depreciated? (See Chapter 460)
Su Su frowned: "The RRR cut has been reduced, and the interest doesn't seem to have moved much, but the depreciation of the RMB is also a normal tactical operation, Brother Qiang knows the usefulness of the depreciation, right?" ”
Wang Qiang was surprised: "I know, as I said earlier, appreciation is convenient for others to run away with money, and depreciation is the opposite, and it is inconvenient to run away." ”
Su Su nodded: "Yes, review - if the exchange rate of RMB to US dollars is 6:1, then foreign capital in China will have to exchange the 6 yuan earned in their hands for 1 US dollar if they want to run away." If the RMB depreciates to 7:1, then you have to exchange 7 yuan for 1 US dollar and leave, which increases the cost of running away by 1 yuan, which is really a decimal. Therefore, the 7% depreciation is still to lock in domestic foreign capital and make them not run away easily. And then - Brother Qiang also knows another benefit of devaluation, right? ”
Wang Qiang frowned: "Increase exports and attract foreign investment?" ”
Su Su said with a smile: "Yes, under the premise of a trade war, it is necessary to increase exports, but the more important thing is to absorb international financial capital that has run away from the United States. But Europe is the origin of international capital and the place of faith, after all, China is socialism that once fought local tyrants, so if you want to cut off Hu, you must offer better conditions! ”
Jiang Gan flipped through the book: "A few days ago, on June 28, Xinhua News Agency reported that the Ministry of Commerce of the National Development and Reform Commission issued a negative list for foreign investment access, and the deputy in 22 fields relaxed the market access for foreign investment. ”
Wang Qiang sighed: "That's it...... So what is the negative list? ”
Jiang Gan smiled: "The lord has no waves in his heart? The meaning of the negative list is that China sells its interests, so the opening up of these 22 fields has aroused huge repercussions. First of all, in the financial services sector, foreign ownership will be relaxed to 51%, and all foreign ownership restrictions will be lifted by 2021. ”
Wang Qiang's face changed: "I'll wipe it!" Cancel it all? ”
Jiang Gan continued: "In the field of infrastructure, the restrictions on foreign investment in the railway network and the power grid will be abolished. ”
Wang Qiang's face was changing: "I'll wipe it!" Restrictions on railways and electricity have also been lifted? Is this to privatize state-owned enterprises? What's more special is that it is privately owned by foreigners! ”
Jiang Gan was reading: "In the field of agriculture, the restrictions on foreign investment in the production of crops other than wheat and corn will be lifted!" ”
Wang Qiang was shocked: "Don't want food security anymore?" This is to ask Monsanto and the like to sell genetically modified children and grandchildren in China, then China is not finished! ”
Su Su smiled: "Brother Qiang, calm down!" ”
Jiang Gannian said: "In the field of resources, cancel the foreign investment restrictions on rare earth smelting and separation!" Automotive, Marine, Aircraft ......"
Wang Qiang sighed: "Okay, the brother in the back is too lazy to listen, let's interpret it, this must be a routine, right?" ”
Su Su smiled: "That's right, if it was 20 years ago, these would have been traitorous clauses, and it would have been the next South Africa, but at this time, China is not what it used to be, and it already has absolute control." And if you really want to sell the country, what kind of trade war will you fight with the United States? Just submit to the United States. ”
Jiang Gan nodded: "First of all, let's talk about financial openness. Finance is not the core lifeblood of China, and the complete opening of finance is nothing more than a gesture to replace the United States. As mentioned earlier, China needs international capital to help promote the internationalization of the renminbi, which is also consistent with the goal of international capital groups to abolish the dollar in order to repay debts, so I believe in China's ability to control it. ”
"Then let's talk about the opening of the railway power grid, think about it, what is the basic routine for international capital groups to acquire and control a country's lifeblood industry?"
Wang Qiang frowned: "Of course, it is the double harvest of the dollar to play appreciation and interest rate hikes, and wait for others to go bankrupt and buy them at a low price, and then wait for the market to sell them at a high price or something. ”
Su Su said with a smile: "That's right, so in the face of China Railway, CRRC, and International Capital Group, which are like giants, plus China Railway, CRRC, and other giant state-owned enterprises share their life value, how can China Railway go bankrupt?" How can you buy at a low price if you don't go bankrupt? If you can't buy it at a low price, then you can directly invest in a huge amount of shares? How much does this cost? Who can eat it? ”
Wang Qiang realized: "That is to say, this is an advertisement!" ”
Jiang Gan smiled: "Yes! Therefore, it is impossible for international capital to hit the idea of China's domestic golden trunk railway, but it can focus on China's overseas high-speed rail projects. And China's high-speed rail has not been able to make great strides out of the country over the years, because of various geopolitical problems - to put it bluntly, those places were mostly controlled and interfered with by international capital groups in the past, and they were friends and foes at that time, and of course they couldn't do it. But now that this railway is opened, it will turn enemies into friends, and in the future, various high-speed railways along the Belt and Road such as Thailand and Myanmar will definitely not cause trouble at all. ”
Wang Qiangwu realized: "It's really a routine!" ”
Jiang Gan said with a smile: "Then let's talk about the food field, pay attention to the key words, wheat and corn, the two weak staple foods, have not been opened, that is, the rice has been opened, and my country has Yuan Da Druid, the desert and the sea can grow rice, our rice technology is definitely the world's peak, as long as the core technology is in our hands, those foreign capital who come to participate in the shares are workers, and the meaning of their existence is to help China promote rice all over the world, otherwise they will not make money." ”
Su Su said with a smile: "As long as the whole world is Chinese rice, then the ABCD of the United States is not the only four, and it cannot easily launch a food war against all countries in the world." As for the issue of genetically modified organisms of all kinds of pit people, to be honest, this is not what it used to be, and with today's agricultural technology, there will be no tricks? ”
Wang Qiang realized again: "I see! ”
Jiang Gan said with a smile: "Then there are rare earths, pay attention to the key words, it is the relaxation of restrictions on rare earth smelting, but the rare earth mining rights are still in our hands." China's weakness is actually the smelting of rare earths, which is equivalent to changing technology from the market. Of course, international capital is not stupid, and if the mining rights cannot be obtained, it means that there is no way to do large-scale, and it is difficult to say whether they will come or not. ”
"Then there is the opening of airplanes and ships, in fact, to put it bluntly, it is the promotion of military industries such as drones and warships to the military market around the world. There is no doubt that the military industry is a market with huge profits, but this market is very special, and the small countries that have purchased high-end weapons from the United States and Russia mean that they will have to accept the one-stop after-sales maintenance and upgrading of the United States and Russia in the future, as well as the compatibility of the system, as well as various political reasons, and the exclusivity is extremely strong, so it is difficult to have room for China's military industry to intervene. However, as long as the international capital group participates in the shares, this will definitely be of great help to China's military industry to gain market share. ”
Wang Qiang realized: "On the surface, it is to invite in, but in fact, it is to go out!" ”
Su Su said with a smile: "Yes, in the long run, if the RMB wants to go out and internationalize, it will inevitably appreciate. This is a strategic goal. And this devaluation is just a tactical adjustment. Tactics are all in the service of strategy. In fact, the exchange rate of the renminbi has always acted at its own pace and will not be disrupted by others. ”
"For example, a few years ago, there was a financial war, and the international tour capital recognized that the RMB would depreciate, so it was ready to create a panic effect and wantonly short the RMB.