(At the request of the book friend "Ghost Fire Incense", the current hot Sino-US trade war is analyzed.) In fact, there is nothing to analyze, a few years ago, there were already masters wearing vests to interpret. The text is as follows :)

Neither Hillary Clinton nor Trump can change the fate of America's decline. Don't talk about them, whoever they change, there is no way, because the general trend cannot be changed.

Of course, one of the things that Trump is better than Hillary Clinton is that Trump is more pragmatic than Hillary. Trump has also seen the decline of the United States, and is trying to find reasons and solutions for the decline. And Hillary is a dead duck with a hard mouth, does not recognize the decline of Midi, and does not intend to accept Midi's decline, and wants to continue to make trouble.

Trump's coming to power can be said to be either late or early.

What does it mean to be late? If according to Trump's policy guidelines, after 2008 it is not ***, but Trump, the situation in the United States is much better than it is now. Although it may not be able to turn around, it will not go so far on the road of no return to overdraft the dollar credit and the national strength of the United States.

So in that sense, Trump came to power late.

Why did he say that he came to the stage early? It is that the American elite and the people have not yet accepted the reality of the decline of the United States, which has led to the fact that some of Trump's ideas cannot be realized at all.

For example, if Trump's infrastructure construction is to be carried out after 2008, there is hope that it will be realized. At that time, the total US national debt was only a few trillion dollars, and now it is almost 20 trillion dollars.

Where does Trump raise the money for infrastructure construction now?

Raise taxes? Whose taxes are added? The middle and lower classes are already impoverished, and the power held by the bourgeoisie can raise taxes on itself dramatically? It's almost impossible.

Printing money? The base currency of the United States is now six times that of 2008. If you print money again, do you want to have dollar credit, and do you plan to follow in the footsteps of the Golden Yuan Bill?

Borrow money? Who can lend you such a large sum of money? Due to the high commodity prices in the United States, if we want to stimulate the economic growth of the United States and improve the infrastructure, we must at least have a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars.

The world economy is in a recession, the economy in Europe and Japan is in a downturn, and the Middle East, the original source of petrodollars, has also fallen into an income crisis because of low oil prices.

The only one who has the ability to lend money to the United States on a large scale is China! Because China is now the largest industrial country, as well as the largest producer and exporter of goods, it is not difficult to lend the United States hundreds of billions of dollars.

But if China continues to lend money to the United States, it will require the United States to exchange tangible benefits.

What the United States can take out now is hegemony and hegemonic appendages. As I said earlier, if the United States is willing to exchange hegemony and hegemonic appendages, China is willing to pay $10 trillion for this deal.

With these 10 trillion US dollars, we can first solve the debt crisis and currency over-issuance, and then control the currency depreciation, and then solve the problem of deindustrialization---- the US dollar is now too high, and it is no fun to engage in manufacturing reshoring.

But is the United States now psychologically prepared to exchange hegemony and hegemonic appendages? I don't think so! It's going to be a few more years.

Will Trump come to power and fight a trade war with China?

I think it's extremely unlikely. It is certain that there will be trade disputes, but they will not go beyond the bounds.

Because Midi no longer has the capital for a trade war!

Let's start with socialized mass production. Even if a large country with a population of more than one billion people like China is the only country in the world with a complete range of industries, it is impossible for China to close itself off, because China's per capita resources are not enough and it needs to be imported from abroad.

With only 300 million people, the United States is far from meeting the needs of producing all commodities. Many commodities cannot be produced because of the lack of population, so they must be imported from abroad.

If the United States imports from other countries, the prices of these imports will inevitably rise significantly compared to China's low quality and low prices. Who will bear the added costs? The middle and lower classes in the United States are already impoverished, and if they increase the cost of production and living, their living standards will inevitably decline, and even become unsustainable.

What we are afraid of is that class contradictions will inevitably intensify further, and the United States is really in danger of civil strife or even disintegration.

Besides, why do the Americans want to pull China to engage in the G2, isn't it because they can maintain their hegemony without China's support, or if they don't oppose it?

If the United States falls out with China, then US hegemony will not be maintained. China now has enough cards in its hand to make it difficult for the United States to parry.

It's very different now than it was during World War II. During World War II, any industrial country could produce most of the world's goods, but now there are too many types of goods than during World War II, and there are too many industrial categories than during World War II.

This is a factor that we must refer to when considering international political, economic, and military issues.

Take the military as an example, how many countries can produce all weapons and equipment completely autonomously? You can count on one hand! The only two countries, China and the United States. Now even Europe and Russia are starting to be unable to keep up.

The United States has been able to do so because many of its civilian industrial products are imported, and its resources are concentrated on the military side. If the United States produced all its industrial goods and weapons and equipment completely on its own, as it did in World War II, the United States would not be able to do it because the population was too small.

Before World War II, although there were not many industrialized countries, it was still feasible to produce all kinds of weapons and equipment.

The United States is now relying on itself alone, not relying on the support of its allies, and wants to fight a trade war with China, or a conventional weapons war, no fun!

……

Why is China so keen to sign FTAs with other countries? Why are other countries willing to sign FTAs with China?

It is because there are more and more types of commodities now, and countries with small populations simply cannot produce all the commodities. Or the cost of production is also extremely high!

It is simply impossible for a small number of people like New Zealand and Australia to produce all kinds of goods. Many goods are inevitably dependent on imports.

Xinao has a small population and many resources, and exports resources to export agricultural and mineral products, which is the advantage of Xinao. Chinese have a large population and small per capita resources, and engaging in production is where China's advantage lies.

Therefore, the signing of free trade agreements between China and Singapore and Australia is a mutually beneficial and win-win thing, which is beneficial to both sides.

In the future world, there will only be more and more types of commodities, trade barriers, trade protectionism, and closed off the country, which will become more and more promising, and will only become more and more marginalized.

Those who think that Trump will rise to power in the United States are! Those who hold these views forget that *** is also a cry for CHANGE; Those who came to power with slogans such as YES and ECAN have also tried to ease relations with Russia and have tried to strengthen relations with allies, but what is the result?

Has the antagonistic relationship with Russia changed? Has it come to save relations with its European allies?

None of them.

Why can't you do nirvana?

The U.S. economic model is blood-sucking and is destined to fail to support this strategic vision ----- unite other countries to deal with China.

If Americans want to change this blood-sucking economic growth model, they must revive manufacturing, and to revive manufacturing, they must first reduce the value of the dollar. In order to reduce the value of the dollar, other countries will be reluctant to hold the dollar and dollar assets, which will lead to the outbreak of the dollar credit crisis and debt crisis.

The three major dilemmas of the over-issuance of US dollar currency and the debt crisis and deindustrialization are interlinked, and the solution of one crisis will trigger the other two.

If we want to solve these three major crises, we can only solve them as a whole, and the Americans have only two paths, one is the collapse of China, and the other is to give up hegemony.

Counting on China's collapse is a fantasy. The Americans are reluctant to give up hegemony. Then these three dilemmas will only get worse, which in turn leads to the increasing need for the United States to suck blood from the outside.

In order to suck blood from the outside, the United States has to provoke confrontational conflicts or wars from the outside and force funds to go to the United States.

Therefore, when Trump comes to power, if China does not collapse and the Americans are reluctant to give up hegemony, they will only follow the old path.

Only when the United States lays down the burden of hegemony will there be hope for the resolution of these three major predicaments and will it be possible for the United States to ease its relations with other countries.

At first, Trump didn't know the price of firewood and rice, but when he ran into a bloody encounter in international politics, he knew that his job was not a good job.

In the words of the bureaucracy, Trump was the first president to take the U.S. economy from the world's largest to the second.

……

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That's about it, two years ago, God's permission. How to say this kind of article, just like a book friend in the book review area said, "I look confused, but I do relish"......

Probably this is also the reason why the ashtray is keen on this kind of article now, this is the happiness that online articles can't bring, and it's also the new hobby of the ashtray, which is about to enter middle age, after all, as you get older, your interest has begun to gradually shift. I hope that there are book friends who like it, if you don't like it, the new book "The Brave Demon God" is 100,000 words~~~~