172. Mr. Du is really fishing
"First of all, it should be noted that because of its lightness, flexibility, green environmental protection and other characteristics, bicycles will be people's favorite means of transportation and leisure and entertainment for a long time in the future, which also ensures that the bicycle industry will continue to maintain health and stability. As long as you do a good job in product quality and keep pace with the times in terms of design, brand, price, etc., there is still a broad world and a lot to do. ”
Sun Yuanqi first affirmed that the bicycle industry has a lot of room for development, and then the conversation changed: "Although the current stage of the industry is developing rapidly, we are also making a lot of money, but from a long-term perspective, we should also note that the bicycle industry has low technical content, low industry threshold, mainly relying on innovative design, strong dependence on raw material manufacturers, small industry scale, low additional output value and other problems." ”
In the first few points, Jamie and others nodded frequently, but when they heard the two comments of "the industry is small" and "the added output value is not high", they disagreed.
None of the people present were outsiders, so Jamie said very directly, "Yank, I'll correct your opinion. First of all, the bicycle industry is not small. According to market research, the global demand for bicycles is 20 million, and people who have the ability to buy and the desire to buy can at least ensure that the annual sales volume is more than 1.5 million, with an average of 200 US dollars per bicycle, which is the output value of 300 million US dollars! Nowadays, in addition to a few industries such as steel, oil, mining, and military industry, it may be counted. We are not demanding at this stage, as long as we occupy 5%-10% of the market share, it is enough for the company to leap into a well-known enterprise in the United States.
"In addition, the added value of the bicycle industry is not low. In terms of the company's financial situation last year, the gross profit was about 35%, although it is not a windfall profit, but it is already rare in the entire industrial system! ”
Sun Yuan said with a smile: "At this stage, the added value is high, mainly because your bicycle style is relatively novel, and some patents have a monopoly. When anyone notices this fertile field, just ask a few professional designers to tinker, and then avoid patents, and compete with you, to see how much profit you can have left at that time? If the price of steel and rubber in the upstream rises again, I'm afraid your life will be difficult, right? ”
If there is a situation of multiple competition, the profit margin of the bicycle industry will indeed drop significantly, for example, in 2009, the profit margin of Chinese bicycles was only 3.2%; In 2010, there was a significant increase, but it was only 3.6%.
"Of course, as you said, the bike industry is really big. But compared to the industry I'm going to talk about, it's many times smaller! Sun Yuanqi threw a bigger piece of bait.
How many times bigger than the bicycle industry? Several people's eyes suddenly began to glow green, and they asked eagerly, "What kind of industry is that?" ”
"Automobile manufacturing, especially household car manufacturing!" Sun Yuanqi gave the answer firmly.
The industrial scale of the bicycle manufacturing industry is almost the same as that of the automobile manufacturing industry. In 2010, for example, the total production of bicycles (including electric bicycles) in the world was 120 million, even if the average was $200 per bicycle - in fact, it is far from reaching this figure, because China's bicycle production and exports account for more than 60% of the world's total. Data for 2005 shows that 53.58 million bicycles were exported throughout the year, earning a total of $1.75 billion, with an average unit price of only a pitiful $32.65 per bicycle – even if it is overestimated, the bicycle output value is only $24 billion.
And what about the auto manufacturing industry in the same year? In 2010, the total output of the global automobile manufacturing industry was 52.4 million vehicles, and the total output value was 728.3 billion US dollars. Compared to the two, the gap reaches a staggering 30 times!
"Cars?" Jamie asked rhetorically, somewhat confused.
"That's right, it's a car." Sun Yuanqi said with great certainty, "Year, German engineer Karl? Benz patented his invention of the three-wheeled motor, which was approved that year, which is recognized as the world's first modern car, and the year is also considered the first year of the automobile. Only 22 years have passed since then. Compared to the more than 100-year-old bicycle, the car is still very young. It is precisely because of its youth that it has more development potential and gives us the best opportunity to enter this industry.
"I know, in the United States in 1896 Henry? Ford drove his first car — a four-wheeled bicycle mounted on four bicycle wheels with a trolley frame — on Detroit Street. In 1903, Mr. Ford partnered with 11 initial investors to form the Ford Motor Company; In the same year, David? Buick also created the American Buick Motor Company with the help of the Brisco brothers. Now they have survived in good health for five or six years, which shows that car manufacturing is still profitable.
"Of course, the public still regards the car as an entertainment toy for the rich, but I firmly believe that in the unwilling future, the car will definitely enter thousands of households, become the darling of ordinary people, and will replace horse-drawn carriages and even bicycles, become the main means of transportation for people, and human beings will begin to enjoy the wonderful experience brought by speed. The automobile manufacturing industry will also follow day by day, and make money every day! ”
In order to encourage the group of guys of his age in front of him to devote themselves to the automobile industry, Sun Yuanqi carefully collected a lot of materials.
"However, I have heard that the structure of the car is very complex, and it is very difficult to manufacture!" Bieber said uncertainly.
"That's right! Automobiles are generally composed of four basic parts: engine, chassis, body and electrical equipment, and no matter which part they are, they are huge and sophisticated system engineering. Because of this, it is difficult for ordinary people to enter this industry. Sun Yuanqi glanced at Bieber appreciatively, "But just right, my Jingshi University established an engine research institute four or five years ago, which is enough to solve the engine problem of automobiles; It has jointly established an element laboratory and an electronics laboratory with Yale and MIT, which can solve the problems of body materials and electrical equipment; As for the Hubei Craft School that I established in central China, it can solve some of the chassis problems; Plus I just have a couple of really good designs in my head – car manufacturing just takes a while for me to put together the results of my research! ”
There is no doubt that Sun Yuanqi is bragging!
Not to mention the element laboratory that studies materials, not to mention the Jingshi University that studies engines, and the Hubei Technology School, which is responsible for solving some chassis problems in the conception, it takes a lot of effort to develop a simple potato peeling machine, not to mention the chassis that includes four complex systems of transmission train, driving system, steering system and brake system? I'm afraid it will take two years to figure out the inner principle!
Cars are not bicycles, the funds for preliminary research are a large amount of investment, raw material procurement, production and manufacturing are even more astronomical, and the future of the sales of the produced cars is uncertain, which makes these already wealthy people hesitate.
Sun Yuanqi retreated: "Of course, this is just a suggestion, you don't have to care too much, and you don't have to be reluctant." Anyway, I made up my mind to enter this industry, and this time I came here mainly to ask if you are interested in entering this industry, which can be regarded as an invitation. If you're not interested, I'll look for other partners, and I think someone will be happy to work with me. Even if no one cooperates with me, I can still transfer some of the radio and television patents and do it myself. ”
These words are true and false.
The real part is that Sun Yuanqi is really interested in the automotive industry. Now that the industry is just getting started, it's the perfect time to pan for gold. Later five of the world's top 10 automakers have now appeared, or at least their predecessors:
The predecessor of Daimler AG was the Mercedes-Benz Automobile Plant and the Daimler Automobile Plant, which were merged in 1926 to become the current company.
Peugeot Motor Company, one of the predecessors of Peugeot Citroen, appeared in France in 1890.
Fiat Cars was founded in Turin, Italy, for 99 years.
Buick, the predecessor of General Motors, was founded in 1903 and will change its current name in September this year.
The Ford Motor Company was also founded in 1903, and in March of this year, it was to produce the world's first car belonging to ordinary people, the Model T, and it was here that the world's automobile industrial revolution began.
In addition, there are five other companies, which are still in the bubble stage: Krasler (1925), Toyota (1933), Nissan (1933), Volkswagen (1938), Honda (1948).
In the 21st century, although Sun Yuanqi is a car-free family, he has also taken a driver's license; The streets and alleys of the capital are full of parking lots, and I have seen a variety of models. As the saying goes: If you haven't eaten pork, haven't you ever seen a pig run? With these advanced insights, how can you occupy a place among the many car manufacturers?
As for the fake part, Sun Yuanqi does not plan to run the car company by himself, because he is really not the material for business. There are only two purposes for me to get involved in the automobile manufacturing industry: one is to use relevant funds to reasonably study engines, build steel plants, and train relevant technical personnel under the banner of researching automobiles; The other is to make a big profit from the automobile manufacturing industry to subsidize the school's daily expenses.
I don't know if it was out of trust in Sun Yuanqi's ability or out of kinship considerations, Jamie gritted his teeth and took the lead in supporting: "I want to buy shares!" ”
Then Bieber also hurriedly said: "Count me in!" ”
"And me!" "Me too!" The few remaining people also signed up.
Sun Yuanqi was very determined, but he said: "Regarding the establishment of an automobile company, I have two plans, and it is not too late for you to decide whether to buy shares after listening to them." ”
Seeing them nodding, he continued: "The first plan is that you set up an automobile company in the United States and I set up a research institute in China. The automotive company will provide research funding to the institute in the first year, which is expected to be $1 million in the first year, $800,000 in the second year, and $600,000, $400,000 and $200,000 in the third and fifth years, respectively. In the sixth year, the institute provided the company with a full set of automotive design solutions and patents, and the two parties agreed to pay a certain percentage of the sales as patent fees. After the patent fee is offset by the research funds paid, the institute can transfer the patent use right to other companies in addition to continuing to collect patent fees; The other patents obtained by the research are not related to the automobile company, which only has the right of first refusal. In order to ensure that the car company's investment in the institute is not lost, I can use my shares in the bicycle company as a guarantee.
"The second option is to set up a car company in the U.S. together, and I invest in technology. Of course, for the first five years, you have to invest $3 million in research funding for the institute, as in the first option, but the patents obtained by the institute belong to the company. In addition, I will not guarantee in any other way, and I will have at least 30% of the shares in the car company.
"Let's talk about it, do you want to buy a stake? If so, which option to choose? With that, Sun Yuan got up and walked along the beach, enjoying the warmth of the winter sun, and leaving room for Jamie, Bieber and others to discuss.
There are pros and cons to both options for investors:
The first option is very safe, at least it will not be discounted, but it is also difficult to get more benefits. Because once the car produced is very popular, after the R&D expenses are paid soon, in addition to the need to pay royalties, it is also possible to face competition from the same product, and the profit margin will be significantly reduced.
The second option may make huge profits, but if the development is not successful, it may be lost. It's a combination of risk and opportunity!
As far as Sun Yuanqi himself is concerned, he is more inclined to choose the first option. This is not only about having confidence in their future design proposals, but more importantly, it ensures a good relationship with their investors and the independence of the institute in the future.
About half an hour later, Jamie, Bieber and others came looking for them. Sun Yuanqi asked, "How did you discuss it?" What is the result? ”
"We are going to accept the second option, but your stake in the car company needs to be adjusted, and 30% is too high." Jamie said.
Sun Yuanqi shook his head: "If you feel that the share is too high, you can choose the first plan, and absolutely guarantee that your investment will not lose money." ”
"By the standards of a bicycle company, you have a 15 percent stake, and we think that's more acceptable," Bieber said. ”
"No," Sun Yuanqi flatly refused, "The structure of the car is so complex, and the patents involved in it are not comparable to bicycles!" ”
"But we're going to invest $3 million in research money this time! Bicycles do not have this fee. Another retorted.
……
After some bit of speculation, Sun Yuanqi's stake in the new company was determined to be 22% non-dilutable, but the patents in the Far East belonged to Sun Yuanqi personally, not to the company.
At the end of the debate, Sun Yuanqi was a little curious: "Why don't you choose the first option?" ”
"Because we have faith in you!" Bieber said, "Besides, this money is all earned by your patents, and if it is dispersed because of your invention, we will have no complaints." ”
"......" Sun Yuanqi was speechless. After a while, he said, "By the way, I have already prepared the name of the car company, either General Motors or Volkswagen, can you choose one?" ”
The slogan of the crossing crowd is: go the way of others, let others have no way out!