The crisis that broke out in Bulgaria touched the nerves of the two great powers, and the Austro-Hungarian Emperor Joseph I even summoned Count Andrách overnight after the Bulgarian crisis broke out.

Now Joseph I was very annoyed with the Bulgarian Grand Duke Alexander, and the interests of a divided Bulgaria and Austria-Hungary, once a united Slavic power were formed, it was very likely that the next thing would be in favor of Russia.

Joseph I believed from the beginning to the end that the meeting of 1878 did not bring much benefit to Austria-Hungary. Because the damned French stirred things up behind their backs, although Great Bulgaria was formed, Bulgaria was never really merged. So the Great Slavic state failed to be established, as Austria-Hungary had hoped;

After the Berlin Conference, Austria-Hungary sent troops to occupy Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was still legally owned by Turkey, in accordance with the Austro-Turkish Agreement of April 1879. The Austro-Hungarian influence in the Balkans was greatly strengthened.

However, the prospects for the superiority of Austria-Hungary in the Balkans were not promising. First, the Austro-Hungarian Balkan policy lacks the support of comprehensive national strength, and it is difficult to act alone; Second, Austria-Hungary's main rival for the Balkans was Russia, which, since Peter the Great, had been trying to occupy the Balkans and the Black Sea straits. In the struggle for the territory of the Ottoman Empire, the interests of Austria and Russia were incompatible.

After the Berlin Conference, relations between Austria and Russia deteriorated, and the relationship between the Three Emperors Alliance came to an end.

In the face of Russian rivalry and hostility in the Balkans, Austria-Hungary had to enlist the support of Germany and Britain diplomatically, and for this reason, it finally embarked on the path of alliance.

In 1879, Austria-Hungary entered into a military alliance with Germany. The Austro-German alliance was a defensive alliance against Russia that strengthened the power of both countries to contain Russia. Austria-Hungary's position as a relatively fragile power in Europe was somewhat improved and ensured through its alliance with Germany, which became the cornerstone of Austria-Hungary's foreign policy.

In the opinion of the Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister, Count Andráhi, an alliance with Germany would both strengthen Austria-Hungary's international position and defend it against Russian aggression. However, Bismarck's view of the alliance at that time was different: on the one hand, he wanted to maintain the status of Austria-Hungary as a great power, which was necessary for the balance of power in Europe; On the other hand, he will not support the activities of Austria-Hungary in the Balkans either! He wanted to use the power of the Austro-German alliance to reconcile with Russia.

However, Austria-Hungary was skeptical of the purpose of re-cooperating with Russia under the framework of the Three Emperors, and was slow to respond to the negotiations. Austria-Hungary hoped to cooperate with Britain in the fight against Russia. The Gladstone Liberal Cabinet, which came to power in 1880, had changed its policy towards Russia and Turkey, leading to the affirmation of the idea of fighting Russia by Austria-Hungary.

Out of distrust of Germany at this time, Austria-Hungary began to further test Russia's bottom line in the Balkans, believing that this Great Bulgarian crisis was an opportunity to further expand the power of Austria-Hungary.

Coming together, two expansion-minded countries are destined to turn the Balkans into an exploding powder keg.

Originally, Count Andráhi hoped that Austria-Hungary would not act rashly for the time being, because their relations with Bulgaria and Serbia were too delicate.

"When we can't swallow each other in one gulp, we should taste it slowly. Now it is too ugly to eat, but it will arouse the scruples of the Russian Empire, you must know that Alexander III has always opposed the expansion of our power in the Balkans, and now France, England and Germany are already in a posture of drawing swords and bows. If we make a blatant provocation in this place and a war really breaks out, no one will come to the aid of Austria-Hungary. ”

Count Andrásy also gave back information about St. Petersburg to Joseph I.

"By all indications, the present Tsar Alexander III was very interested in the situation in the Balkans, and after the unrest in Bulgaria, he openly stated at the meeting that the Slavs should establish a state in the Balkans to which they belonged. This is also a hint that the Grand Duke of Bulgaria, Alexander I, after unification, would have better fall into the arms of Russia. As for what will happen if he does not fall into the arms of Russia, he also specially left the suspense blank. ”

Joseph I frowned very dissatisfied, and he said in a deep voice, "According to the current situation, shouldn't we strike first?" There are two forces in Bulgaria today, and the tsar can decide to directly use the pro-Russian forces to depose Archduke Alexander. For example, the pro-Russian elements could instigate a coup d'état in Sofia and overthrow the Grand Duke, and if the Grand Duke was forced to abdicate, he would have to leave Bulgaria from then on. Russia could have set up a pro-Russian government headed by Archbishop Kliment. ”

"My Honorable Majesty, now Austria-Hungary is in a relative advantage, and we cannot push Russia too hard. It is even possible that they are planning a war. ”

In 1882, Austria-Hungary entered into an alliance with Germany and Italy, which was an alliance against Russia. At this time, Austria-Hungary was able to secure its southern flank through an understanding with Italy, which relieved the worries of a conflict with Russia. In 1883, Austria-Hungary also signed a treaty of alliance with Romania, and Germany declared its accession. The alliance was an alliance against Russia, and Romania was also included in the Austro-Hungarian sphere of influence.

Now that Austro-Hungarian influence had also penetrated into Serbia, the Grand Duke of Milan believed that the Russian government had not done its best to defend Serbian interests at the Treaty of San Stefano and the Berlin Conference, so he changed course and relied on Austria-Hungary instead.

"If Your Majesty is ready for war with Russia, then I will give my full support to Austria-Hungary to war. But if Your Majesty only wants to gain new spheres of influence through political diplomacy, or expand your own territorial scope. Then I do not propose to provoke Russia at this time. The biggest war in Europe was on the verge of breaking out, and they chose to stir up trouble at this time, because they saw that Germany did not have time to help Austria-Hungary. ”

Joseph I interrupted the other party, "No, you don't have to say it, I know all this. ”

"I understand the big truth, since Russia thinks that it can turn the situation around through this war, why can't we crush Russia's last hope?"

"One question, one question."

In order to ensure the interests of the Balkans, after the Berlin Conference, Austria-Hungary adopted a policy of alliance with Germany and also insisted on provoking the Balkans, which led it to a dangerous path.

Joseph I raised his left hand, pointed to Count Andrách in front of him and asked, "If Austria-Hungary really goes to war with Russia, will we lose?" ”