Chapter 16: Football and Probability

Willingsham's good days are over, they ushered in the most difficult month of the Premier League, in the horror of November, they need to face Manchester United, Everton, Chelsea and Aston Villa, these four teams, all of last season's top eight teams, this month's results will directly determine the ranking of Willingsmu, whether they really have the strength to squeeze above the middle of the league, or just a few soft persimmons to temporarily rank at the top.

Whether to be beaten back to the prototype or to shock England with a bang, Willingham stands at the crossroads of their first Premier League campaign.

"Aguero has five goals, Anelka has two goals, Huntelaar has two goals, Helder has four goals, Kicic has one goal, Cabo has two goals, and we have scored sixteen goals in eight games, can we be considered strong in attack? Having conceded 10 goals in eight games, is our defense good? Liu Luzhen counted with his fingers crossed, and next to him was a professor with a stern face.

"If we compare our normal strength with the top four of the Premier League, we should not be a little bit worse, but to be able to score such goals in these middle and lower teams, it still shows that our offense can wrestle with them, so does it mean that we should play against them, the defense is estimated to be undefinable, but will the attack bring more defensive holes?" Lao Liu was still talking to himself, and the professors around him were still silent.

After pondering for a while, Lao Liu seemed to have made up his mind, "That's it, the home game against Manchester United adopts a balanced offensive and defensive style of play, the home game against Everton and Aston Villa is mainly attack, and the away game against Chelsea is still defense-oriented, professor, what do you think?" ”

Wenger did not directly answer Lao Liu's question, he has actually been listening carefully to Lao Liu's self-talk, basically, he does not agree with Lao Liu's style of play, if there is no boss like Lao Liu, he will definitely stabilize the defense in these four games, and then wait for the opportunity to attack, after all, no matter how capable the striker is, football games are a project with an overall surname, and the gap in overall strength cannot just fantasize about relying on the super play of a certain player to turn the situation back, but, after living with Lao Liu for so long, He already accepted Lao Liu's very strong tactical ideas in his heart, after all, in many games in the English League One and the Championship, Lao Liu relied on this risky style of play to achieve results that seemed completely impossible to others.

And in the professor's heart, there is another idea that is not completely felt by himself, that is, this way of playing is really cool, whether it is winning or losing, it is more cool, maybe in addition to the careful calculation of the football game if the most favorable result is obtained, more is the exciting spirit of not admitting defeat, that kind of spirit of a newborn calf is not afraid of tigers.

The current Willingham has such a calf energy, so even if Wenger does not approve of the more aggressive tactics from the bottom of his heart, but on the other hand, for Willingsmu, who have no Premier League experience and no Premier League veterans, this is their biggest characteristic and can also be said to be their biggest advantage. This is also the reason why Wenger mentioned the League Cup to Leboeuf before, rather than setting the goal of relegation according to the convention, and then gradually adapting to the Premier League in a few years, it is better to directly strengthen their own characteristics and set the goal directly high, so that the overall momentum of the team reaches the highest point.

"Strategically, I don't disagree with your direction, but in terms of specific tactics, we may need to plan a little more carefully." Wenger explained to Liu Lu like a teacher, Lao Liu nodded deeply, he may be very stubborn at some times, but as long as he can accept what you say, he will be very easy to listen to and integrate.

"Then I just want to ask you, according to your strategic thinking, how many points do you think we want to achieve in these four games, how many points do you want to score at the least, and how many points do you want to score at most?" Wenger was very pleased with Liu's attitude, and simply asked questions like a mentor.

Liu Luzhi obviously asked himself this question just now, basically there was no pause, Wenger's voice just fell, and he directly gave his answer, "According to common sense, it is a very good result for us to get more than four points in these four games, and according to my thinking, if the luck is not with us at all, we may only get two points or less." Wenger was stunned, he didn't expect that Lao Liu would not take care of his own face at all, "Isn't this risky?" So how many points do you hope to score? ”

"Yes, I'm just taking a risk, my plan is 20% with less than two points and 20% with less than four points, but I think at least 40% of the proportion we can get more than 5 points, and the remaining 20% can even get more than 6 points, so in this comparison, I think it's better to be conservative than to be conservative for the sake of getting four points."

"How did you calculate these proportions, and what did you study? Probability? Arsene Wenger is also the first time he has heard of this method being used to choose the tactical style of a football game.

"Well, I was very fond of probability in college, and I've been trying to evaluate what needs to be decided in this way in my subsequent work, and to be honest, it's all bullshit, and decisions are a feeling, but using this method can make you feel more determined."

Wenger was finally speechless again, but he was really interested in seeing what kind of situation Lao Liu just said after completing four games according to this tactical idea......

The home game against Manchester United is the second giant team after Lenovo Fengyun Stadium ushered in Arsenal twice this season, and the tickets were sold out very early, and when the fans entered the stadium, they were still talking about the tactics that Willingham would adopt in today's game, when a Manchester United fan listened to Willingham fans say that Willingham might attack Manchester United in this game, he said disdainfully, "If you really dare to be so big, I think maybe Manchester United's record for the number of goals scored in a single game will be updated again." The surrounding United fans burst into laughter, and the enraged Wellingsham fans rushed over to make a move, but fortunately the police arrived in time to separate the two sides.

Van den Boray and Richards were finally able to play, and seeing that Arsene Wenger's line-up for this game did not mean to strengthen the defense in the slightest, the young fans of Willingham cheered loudly, while some of the more mature fans worried about their own team.

(To be continued)