Chapter 602: Barrister Paul
"Oh? Are you so bullish on real estate in China? I think that China's housing prices are already very high now, and I am afraid that it will not take long to follow in the footsteps of the United States, and Ms. Pan's investment is not without risk. Thomas obviously does not agree with Hong Tao's judgment, he should be considered a more conservative American, not much knows about China, in his eyes, if the US real estate bubble bursts, then the whole world will have to tremble together, although China may react a little slower, but in the end it is not necessarily lighter than others.
"This problem can only be measured by time, as far as I know, although China's economy will be affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, but it will not hurt the real estate industry much, housing prices can rise for at least another 3 to 4 years, and then tend to stabilize, even if it is risk aversion, it is too early to stop now." In addition, China's real estate market is very different from the real estate market in the United States, and it is not so much a business as a policy, so it cannot be analyzed and judged from a pure market perspective, which would be very wrong. Although Hong Tao doesn't understand any macroeconomic regulation, he has the memory of this big killer, no matter what you say, the price of the house is there, this is an indisputable fact.
"Maybe you're right, who knows, even if I want to do those projects, I can't do anything, our firm's focus has been in North America, and it's just entered Asia in the past two years, if it weren't for this damn financial crisis, the Chinese market wouldn't be necessary for our firm, but now everything is different, and all we can do here is to fight those uncountable bankruptcy lawsuits, and with these projects alone, my firm will probably have to lay off staff, so you and Erin didn't just save me and my partner, I also saved a lot of American lawyers in the firm, but unfortunately they didn't know about you and Erin's work, otherwise they would have greeted you with banners at the airport gate. "Thomas is a bit conservative though. But he is not too conceited, he will not insist on his own opinions in areas that he is not very familiar with, people with this kind of personality are most suitable for being a conservative person, both assertive, and not stubborn, although he will not expand his territory on a large scale, but he will not easily lose his advantages.
"Mr. Hong, what do you think of the $850 billion bailout plan that the U.S. government has just passed?" This is a man in his 40s next to him who finally couldn't help it, and when he saw Thomas, he made Hong Tao speechless, and he began to believe the rumors about this young Chinese man. Tentatively asking his own questions, it became clear that his firm was dealing with domestic clients in the United States and had little interest in China or Asia.
"I don't think it will have much effect in the short term, and governments don't have a good way to stop the spread of this crisis, it's nothing more than a cut in interest rates, and the U.S. stock market will continue to fall, even to the lowest point in decades, not only the U.S. stock market, but the global stock market will fall." And at least until 2010. I estimate that the stock market will have to fall as soon as AIG's fourth-quarter report comes out early next year, and GM will not survive on its own, although it has received capital injection from the government. The end result would have to be paid by the government, and most of its shares would have to fall into the hands of the federal government, but this GM would not be the GM of the past. "This is the first time that Hong Tao has felt the taste of being regarded as an expert in economics, to be honest. It's cool.
When you see the American barristers around you listening intently to your vernacular, your heart will supply blood to your brain, and your brain will be in a state of excitement because of the excessive blood supply. You may have two reactions. One is that the speed of the brain is too high and it crashes, and the other is that the brain becomes more flexible and more witty, and Hong Tao is the latter.
He was originally a master who could talk and fool, and he could be hypocritical for half an hour when he took up a little reason, but now no one can explain these problems clearly, and everyone is all guessing. He is even more unscrupulous, put aside his broken mouth and blow hard, anyway, it is all foreigners who are fooling, and he will not work with them, and after finishing speaking, he pats his ass and returns to China, and he has no burden in his heart.
And his image in the eyes of these people is a little taller, which also promotes Erin's work. As for whether he is right or not, he is still very sure in his heart. Because the things he said were all things that really happened in his memory, he was only responsible for talking about the results, and did not mention anything about the process and principles, which not only made him appear unfathomable, but also covered up his shortcomings in financial expertise.
Of course, the people here will not get to the bottom of the matter and raise the bar with you, everyone is a person with an identity, and people are willing to say a result It is already very face-saving, and the judgment of these key issues is often the secrets of large groups, large companies and even the government level. As for whether you believe it or not, that's your own problem, whether Hong Tao is right or not, it's a new idea, there are only benefits and no harm.
"I'm not worried about GM going bankrupt or not, I'm worried about whether China's domestic economy will be hit too much, I'm different from Thomas, more than 60% of my firm's clients are from Asia, especially Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, Mr. Hong, what do you think about the trend in China?" Hong Tao is pretending to be an expert here, I don't know when Paul and Erin secretly came back, and they were standing behind him listening to his vernaculars, Erin was surprised that her husband En was able to integrate into these barrister groups so quickly, and faintly became the controller of the topic, and she was even more proud, and her little face was about to burst into laughter, and that Paul had obviously recognized or partially believed Hong Tao's previous statement, so he put down his body and actually asked Hong Tao's opinion.
"China will certainly not be able to avoid this crisis, and the first to be hit is the export industry, and I am afraid that a large number of export manufacturers will soon go out of business. But China's real estate and infrastructure will not be affected too much, because the Chinese government will invest heavily in these aspects, although it is not the same as the US government's bailout method, but the overall investment figure should be about the same, Mr. Paul still put his heart in his stomach, you can rest assured to invest in China in the next 5 years, the only thing that can not be touched is China's stock market, it is now at the bottom, and it will not be able to climb out after 5 years. Hong Tao only knows much about China's domestic economic structure, but he still has the impression of the 4 trillion bailout and the stock market fell sharply at the end of 08, and his daughter-in-law also played stocks in his previous life, but he was directly trapped until the day he crossed, and he lost 60%.
"Is it really as good as you say?" Paul didn't dare to believe Hong Tao's judgment, but Hong Tao said it very specifically, and even said the approximate amount of the government's bailout funds, which made him dare not believe it all.
"Mr. Paul can call to ask Ms. Pan's opinion, Hong Tao and her suggested that all the stocks be sold when she hesitated for a week, almost every day to call me to ask about the situation in the United States, regardless of day and midnight, the final result is exactly the same as Hong Tao's judgment, so Ms. Pan decided to listen to Hong Tao's suggestion, with funds to invest in China, now the progress of her projects I believe you are also clear in your heart, the prospect is still very optimistic." Erin saw that someone questioned her husband, and immediately stood up for Hong Tao, and the example she gave was more straightforward, mentioning Pan, the only successful case of Hong Tao, where are the ready-made achievements, you can't help but believe it.
"You are such an amazing young man, I have never seen such an accurate and accurate grasp of the international situation, are you interested in coming to my company to develop, I will give you a senior investment consultant position, the office location is chosen by you, in Manhattan, San Francisco, Shanghai, Beijing!" Paul and Thomas are not at all the same style, not only is this man younger than Thomas, but he is also more radical, more adventurous and pioneering, which is a testament to why his firm has grown so much faster than Thomas's.
"Aren't you a law firm? I didn't know anything about the law, and I didn't go to court once. "Hong Tao is really a little tempted, if he can work with Erin in New York, it should also be a good choice, anyway, he is also a consultant, if he can take care of it, he will ask, and if he can't take care of it, he will get it, which is equivalent to taking money for nothing.
"Oh, no, no, no, the firm is just part of my job, and I also have an investment company, venture capital!" Paul laughed like the Sherlock Holmes in the British TV series "Sherlock Holmes", not so much laughing, not to mention that his face was cramping, and both of them also had a big hooked nose.
"I ...... I'm not very comfortable in the office, I like the outdoors, I can't be idle, and I still have my own company to manage in China, although it's small, but after all, it's my own, and I would like Mr. Paul to understand my decision. Hong Tao originally wanted to say that he should think about it, but suddenly there was a stinging pain in his back, this is Erin pinching him, usually this situation occurs, it means that Erin is very opposed to something, so Hong Tao changed his words very smoothly and became a direct refusal.
"Paul! You've committed a foul! It's not fair that you can't poach the family members of my senior employees in front of me to work for you! Hearing that Hong Tao directly rejected Paul's temptation, Thomas let out a long breath, and then began to protest against Paul, and was approved by several lawyers around him.
"No, no, no, I'm not a foul, the rules only apply between us practitioners, Mr. Hong is not a lawyer, so he shouldn't be counted." Paul is also not a fuel-efficient lamp, and begins to wrestle with Thomas, trying to clean himself up. (To be continued......)
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