Chapter 244: Southeast Asian Economic Crisis
"Since the sixties of this century, developed countries in Europe and the United States have transferred labor-intensive industries to developing countries, first Xiangjiang, Baodao, Singapore, and South Korea seized this opportunity to promote economic development, known as the Asian Four Little Tigers, and then in the eighties, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia also seized this wave of wind, attracting a large amount of foreign capital and technology, and quickly embarked on the road of development, known as the Asian Four Little Tigers...... What has been experienced in the world is the first word.
"In the early stage of development, Thailand's foreign exchange control system was relatively strict, and national speculators had no opportunity to operate." Yes, Shen Long predicted the occurrence of the Southeast Asian crisis in this paper, and now it is 1996, Soros began to arrange an offensive against Thailand, and it will involve Xiangjiang in the future.
"Then why did you predict that Soros would launch an offensive against Thailand?" Professor Lian Jing asked, those previous situations can be said by looking up some information, the point is why this kind of prediction was made.
"This is inseparable from the fact that we want to take back Hong Kong, after entering the 90s, as 1997 approached, more and more immigrants from Hong Kong, and due to the connivance of the British, the financial order of Hong Kong became more and more chaotic, and Thailand saw an opportunity to replace Hong Kong and become the financial center of Asia." Speaking of this, Shen Long couldn't help but sneer, this is called self-inflicted.
"For this reason, Thailand has changed its financial system to allow international financial funds to enter Thailand without being supervised by the Bank of Thailand, which means that international funds can freely enter and leave Thailand, and attack their securities market, financial market, and foreign financial institutions can freely receive Thai baht, which has no defense in the international currency market."
"Earlier, Soros had already made an attempt to attack Thailand, but because the Thai economy was performing better at that time, the international financial institutions had confidence in Thailand, and the timely intervention of the Bank of Thailand, Soros did not take any advantage; But this year, Thailand plans to completely liberalize regulatory ......"
"It is expected that international travel capital will frantically pour in, and in a short period of time, Thailand's real estate market and stock market will usher in a surge, housing prices will be higher day by day, and stock prices will continue to soar; But these are groundless, which means that the entry of international capital will lead to a huge bubble in the Thai economy and create a false prosperity......"
"And once this false prosperity is punctured and the bad debts of Thai companies and banks are exposed, Soros will launch a final assault and lead the international money behind him to push Thailand's economy to the bottom, because Thailand's foreign exchange reserves have been depleted in the previous defense against Soros's attack, so Thailand has little to fight back......," Shen concluded, citing a large amount of data to illustrate his point.
"The logic of the thinking is clear, the argumentation process is rigorous, and from the paper itself, it is indeed well written, and it can also prove your ability." Lian Jing nodded in agreement, but it could be seen that his approval was only for the paper itself, and it did not mean that he was completely convinced of Shen Long's judgment.
This is also a reasonable thing, in his position, he must be cautious in everything he says and does, because this may affect the changes in the country's financial and economic policies, and it is not okay to be careful.
"And I judge that Soros's target is not just Thailand." Speaking for a while, Shen Long said more things that were not written in the paper, "In addition to Thailand, the financial systems of some countries and economies in Southeast Asia are also unsound, Soros has been planning for a long time, and he will definitely not let go of this good opportunity." ”
"After defeating Thailand, he will definitely turn to Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Xiangjiang, and these countries and regions also lack defense capabilities, and even Russia will be affected, but given the particularity of Russia, those international speculators will not be able to bargain much." Russia directly announced the depreciation of the ruble, so that the international speculators lost all their money, but Russia has also fallen into economic difficulties and cannot get rid of it for a long time.
So, what do you think the impact of this economic crisis will be on the country? Also, you just mentioned most countries and regions in Southeast Asia, why didn't you mention domestic and treasure islands? Will Soros attack us? Professor Lian Jing listened with more and more interest.
"Soros may launch a tentative attack, but it will not achieve much results, because our country has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves and a good economic development, which is not comparable to those small countries in Thailand, and it is difficult to say how much spare strength Soros will have to attack the country after launching such a huge offensive." Historically, Soros has not taken much advantage at home, and the country will help Xiangjiang maintain stability.
"This economic crisis is a wake-up call for us, after nearly 30 years of construction since the reform and opening up, China has made indisputable achievements in the financial field, including banks, stock markets, futures and derivatives and other financial instruments in economic life The role of financial instruments in economic life is becoming increasingly prominent; But on the other hand, due to the short development time and lack of experience, there are many problems in the financial market, and even various crises are lurking. ”
"Through the study of this upcoming crisis, it has an important reference role in the construction of China's financial system; At the same time, we can also take advantage of this opportunity to deepen financial ties with Southeast Asian countries and regions, and expand China's influence on the region's economy......" Shen Long described the many measures taken by the country in the future, and deliberately used several very complex mathematical formulas during the period.
He knew that he was born in the liberal arts, and the study of economics must have a high degree of mathematical attainment, Professor Lian Jing must have doubts in his heart, fortunately, he himself studied computer, and in the world of "Blood Romance" and studied in the Department of Computer Science of Tsinghua University, although his mathematical skills cannot be compared with those genius mathematicians, it is enough to meet the needs of economic research.
"These formulas are used very cleverly, and it is indeed rare for a liberal arts student to have such deep attainments in the field of economics and mathematics." Professor Lian Jing high-fived and praised, now he finally believed that the paper was written by Shen Long himself, "Okay, you passed this interview." ”
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