"Lu Lu, I got up and brushed my teeth for breakfast, I made porridge and cut two eggs!"

At eight o'clock the next morning, Lu Yi, who was still sleeping in bed, was pulled up by Professor Lin and urged him to brush his teeth and eat breakfast.

"Just now there was a message from the laboratory, saying that Wei Hong had built a test engine and was ready to conduct a test, and asked when we would go back."

"What engine? Thermally expanded or Orion? Lu Yi walked into the bathroom and squeezed some toothpaste on his toothbrush, and asked vaguely while brushing his teeth.

"I don't know, it's just that the test model machine has been built, and the low-energy test will be conducted to collect data first."

In December, the weather in Beijing has cooled down even further today, Professor Lin took out Lu Yi's down jacket in the closet and prepared to go out later to wear it.

"Well, I just read the message, and they asked us to talk about heat pollution and the earth's heat dissipation, and we'll go back in the afternoon after the talk."

After eating the breakfast made by Professor Lin himself, Lu Yi and the others put on thick down and went out with their notebooks.

"There's a move."

Sitting in the car, Lu Yi was not idle, sent a plan that he had roughly conceived last night to the Nuclear Industry Group, and then used professional tools to retrieve the latest current affairs news in the world.

When the content of these news headlines and the country to which the news belonged were sorted out, Lu Yi's brows suddenly furrowed.

"What's wrong?" Professor Lin next to him glanced at him worriedly.

"It's okay, I mean, because of the heat crisis, the next step is to protect the environment, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions."

Lu Yi closed the notebook, reached out and grabbed Professor Lin's soft little hand and gently kneaded it, but the guess in his heart was not spoken.

After just retrieving the latest current affairs news in the world, he found a change, that is, the proportion of environmental and environmental protection news has increased significantly, which usually does not occur at all except for the proximity to the National Environmental Protection Day and the El Eno pumping period.

If there is an abnormality, there must be a force to intervene, and judging from the news situation, Western Europe also realizes that their big brother Lao Mi is ready to sell them, or is it honey oil blending with Lao Mi's public opinion guidance.

After all, the heat crisis data was only determined the afternoon before yesterday, and the video conference of the three countries was launched yesterday afternoon, and the time from the beginning to the present is very short, and there are only a few people who know the situation, so the news is still under control.

That's good news.

Thinking about this, Lu Yi's mood also became happier.

......

"Professor Lu, several academicians have arrived, but the leaders are still resting, everyone has to wait a while."

As soon as he came to the conference room, Minister Hu, who had been waiting for a long time, saw Lu Yi and the two and walked over to say.

"Yesterday's video conference went on late?" Lu Yi looked at the time, it was already more than nine thirty, and something suddenly thought of in his heart.

"It's almost three o'clock in the morning, and the three countries have agreed on the general direction of this matter, and there are still some details to add."

Minister Hu said softly, he knew that Lu Yi was the first person to confirm the heat crisis situation, and yesterday's video conference could also enter, and the progress of this matter did not need to be hidden from Lu Yi.

"It's almost three o'clock in the morning,......" Lu Yi remembered the age of the leader and nodded silently.

At ten o'clock in the morning, everyone often saw the leader on the news network and came to this conference room in high spirits, but if you look closely, you can still see a trace of tiredness in your eyes.

"Feel free to sit at will."

Lu Yi, who beckoned to stand up, sat down, and said, "I just want to confirm with you experts this time the views on thermal pollution and the thermal pollution crisis, and whether there are technical means to solve it." ”

The leader's voice fell, and several academicians present looked at Lu Yi, except for Academician Chen and Academician Shen yesterday, there were two academicians who Lu Yi did not know.

"Let me tell you about it."

Lu Yi connected the high-definition projector to his notebook, opened a data and said: "Now the Yangcheng nuclear fusion reactor adopts a pressurized water reactor scheme, with an energy efficiency of 0.416, which is about the same as the energy efficiency of ordinary thermal power plants."

The next step of the nuclear fusion reactor will be a ferrofluid-based, pressurized water reactor supplemented by a power generation scheme, the energy efficiency can reach between 0.69 and 0.70, and compared with thermal power plants, controllable nuclear fusion also reduces carbon emissions, soot emissions and other environmental problems.

Judging from these data, the environmental impact of our phase-out of thermal power plants and the use of controlled nuclear fusion is positive, and if the total energy consumption of human society is maintained at the current level, the thermal energy emissions of human activities to the environment will enter a negative growth state, and the environment will only get better and better. ”

"What if the total energy consumption of human society increases?"

The leader saw the crux of the problem at a glance, the controllable nuclear fusion breakthrough, who would be willing to limit the use, who would not want to explode it with a wave of power.

"Looking at the promotion method, in the past, only 40 of the 100 parts of energy were effective, and the remaining 60 parts could not be used and were directly discharged into the environment.

Now that energy efficiency has improved, we can use 70 out of 100 parts, and only 30 parts are not used and emitted into the environment.

The significance of controlled nuclear fusion as an energy efficiency improvement is that the total energy consumption of human society will increase by 75%, and the total amount of heat we emit into the environment will not change.

Because heat pollution is not about whether you use it or not, the energy is released from the matter, and unless the energy is returned to the matter, the energy will end up in the environment.

It's the same as forest fires, where a lot of energy is released during the burning process, and even if it's not used by us, it's all going to the environment.

If the total energy consumption of the society is further increased, by more than 75%, then the amount of heat we emit into the environment will be higher than now, the greenhouse effect will be strengthened, and the heat pollution will be aggravated. ”

Lu Yi opened another data and said: "This is the data simulated and analyzed by the mathematical model of the heat crisis, and the current solar activity remains unchanged, and we can increase the total energy to 7.6 times the current one."

Of course, in order to avoid the impact of the volatility of the earth's environment, we need to reduce this multiple to 6.5, and then we will plant trees together, use tree photosynthesis to convert energy into chemical energy and store it, and finally get a value of 6.8 times.

This 6.8 times does not refer to the current 6.8 times increase in the total energy consumption of our human society, it refers to 6.8 times of energy production.

In fact, limited by energy efficiency, there will always be a part of the energy that cannot be used by us and will be discharged into the environment, which means that our actual production energy consumption can only be increased by 4.76 times.

This is still the data obtained by the higher energy efficiency of controlled nuclear fusion, and if it is replaced by thermal power, our actual production energy consumption can only be increased to 2.72 times at most. ”

"Production energy consumption is 4.76 times ......"

The leader was silent for a moment and asked, "Is there any way to improve?" During yesterday's video conference, an expert in the United States said that the sun is expected to further weaken activity into the Xiaoice period, if this news does happen, what will be the impact on our current situation. ”

"It's a big impact."

Lu Yi was silent and said: "I asked the scientists who study the sun, and they estimate that the intensity of solar radiation will decrease by about 7% during the Xiaoice period.

The power of solar radiation to the earth is about 1.73*10^17W, and the total power of human society was 2.253*10^13W last year (Note 1), the difference between the two sides is 4 orders of magnitude, and then counting the improvement of the energy efficiency of controllable nuclear fusion, then if the solar radiation really decreases by 7% this time, we can increase the total energy consumption of society by about 900 times to 1100 times.

I know that there is a great need to take advantage of the breakthrough in controlled nuclear fusion, and that the need for energy is urgent, but I would recommend ignoring the potential for a weakening of solar radiation intensity, and planning to prevent a thermal pollution crisis only from the present, or based on the highest radiation intensity data in the sun's history.

We can prevent possible Xiaoice periods, but we cannot rely on this possible Xiaoice period development. ”

"Tell me your reasoning." The leader tapped his fingers on the table and asked.

"Because of the unknown of the sun, the prediction of the sun cannot be accurately determined, and the prevention of human nature."

Lu Yi shook his head and said: "20 years ago, NASA was shouting, the beginning of the 21st century may enter the Xiaoice River, 10 years ago NASA changed the word, the middle of the 21st century may enter the Xiaoice River, in the past two years NASA released news that due to the weakening of solar activity, the recent record low temperature is coming."

There are many reasons why NASA has changed its statement many times, the first may be that they want more money to let the people of Lao Mi support NASA's space industry, but the main reason is that we do not know the sun and cannot make accurate predictions.

Our technology is a bit reluctant to monotonously control the earth, let alone the sun.

Even if we enter the Xiaoice period, we cannot guarantee how long this Xiaoice period will last.

It may last for more than a decade, or it may last for decades, but it may also be within a few years, or even a year or two, before we officially enter the starry sky, and solar activity begins to resume and intensify, and solar radiation levels begin to climb.

But at that time, we had already taken advantage of the low temperature of the Xiaoice River to build a burst of energy far beyond the limit of the earth's tolerance in normal times, so that when the solar activity began to resume and the radiation level climbed, we would not be able to stop the car......"

It is easy to go from thrift to luxury, and it is difficult to go from luxury to thrift, which is a very simple problem of human nature.

You are desperately trying to use the crazy explosion energy of the Xiaoice River period, but you can't accurately predict the solar activity, and you can't guarantee that it will increase in activity and radiation levels quickly after a year or two.

If such a thing really happens, how can you, who are used to bursting energy, adapt to the days when your energy use is suddenly restricted?

If there is no restriction, a large number of the country's ongoing programs will be interrupted, and all the people will not want to, so what should we do?

Then there can only be war, suppress all the weak countries, simply send them back to the Stone Age, and hardly use energy...... But this may not be enough, because then a big country may exceed the energy standard, so how can this be done? A full-scale nuclear war is over.

Don't say that the top is sensible, the war can't be fought, but don't forget that the people are blind.

When the whole people are unwilling to limit and reduce their energy, when the whole people are boiling, and the real public opinion is victorious, you will fight this war if you don't fight.

You can't know what the sun's temper will be like at the next moment, and accurately predicting the sun's activity is beyond the scope of human technology.

You can only analyze the probability from the available data, which is a 70 to 80 percent probability that solar activity will continue to weaken, but what about 20 percent?

Gambling on the 80 percent chance of using the entire civilization is a gambler and a businessman, and it should not be the thinking of a strategic scientist whose words and deeds will affect the direction of civilization, nor should it be the character of a person in power of civilization.

When it comes to the safety of the entire civilization, as long as the event is not 100% certain, even if there is only a 1% probability of it happening, you must also take precautions for this 1%, which is the thinking that a strategic-level scientist, including a person in charge of civilization, should have.

Instead of smashing the safety of the entire civilization on an 80 percent probability for the sake of faster development, to bet that 20 percent will not happen.