Chapter 3 The Three Stone Sutras

preface

From big to small: according to the judgment of macro expectations, book the annual investment plan, refer to the macro trend to do the analysis of industry data, and then refine the portfolio on this basis;

Chapter 1 Judging the general trend

Section 1: Judging the Economic Situation

Judge the current economic situation in order to make corresponding investment strategies: consider the current economic situation from four aspects: capital, external, internal, indicative, and indicative.

1. Capital: The fundamental lies in the satisfaction of liquidity

1. Effective use of stock funds

2. The adequacy of reserve funds

3. The degree of policy bias

2. Outside world:

1. The China policies of major external economies

2. The stability of the external economic environment

3. Changes in the country's foreign policy

3. Internal:

1. The structure and status quo of the internal capital market

2. Judgment and policy on the current market

Fourth, indicative:

1. The stock market reflects the current state of the economy, but it is not predictive;

2. If the market deviates excessively, it will intervene implicitly;

3. The economic trend will be close to the economic expectations of the first class;

4. No means will control the economic trend for a long time;

Section 2 Scheduled annual investment plan

The first point is to judge the general trend, strong economic cycle, weak economic cycle, and the prospect preference or stability of the volatile economic cycle, and there are many future crises in the volatile economic cycle;

1. Strengthen the economic cycle, choose an efficient investment portfolio, focus on medium and long-term investment ideas, change to other investment portfolios when the risk increases or the profit reaches expectations, and seize the hot spots;

2. Weak economic cycle, hold currency, wait, prudently and appropriately allocate short-cycle portfolios;

3. Shock preference for the economic cycle, choose a safe portfolio, in the decline stage, to wait for a certain space to fall, wait for the rebound to warm up, if you don't catch up, don't chase the opportunity to let go, the risk will sometimes be unbearable; In the medium term, hold some mild varieties, the yield is not large but the income cycle is long, and the amount of funds is not easy to be too heavy;

4. Shock and fall of the economic cycle, choose investment varieties that can be exchanged at any time, invest a small amount of money in the short term, and the risk is very high at this stage.

The second point is the proportion of funds

1. When the market prefers (1, 3), most of the funds are operated in the medium and long term, and a small part of the funds are operated in the short term;

2. When the market is weak (2, 4), most of the funds do not participate in the stock market, and a small part of the funds are properly operated;

Section 3: Information Rules

1. Before and after important dates

In the short term, the general trend of the session is opposite or pauses before the meeting, and the previous trend will continue after the meeting, if there is no obvious short-term trend a few days before the meeting, the medium-term trend before the meeting will be referenced;

The trend of the Party Congress: Generally, the month of the session is the inflection point of the medium-term trend, and the trend during the meeting and the current month is generally of little significance (there are no obvious characteristics, focus on observing the trend after the meeting);

The trend of the two sessions: the short-term trend formed before the meeting will have a pullback in the opposite direction during the meeting, and the previous trend will continue after the meeting; If there is no obvious short-term trend, refer to the medium-term trend before the meeting; In terms of monthly indicators, the performance of the current month will affect the medium-term trend after the meeting;

The tactics of the end of each year and the beginning of the year

The end of the year and the beginning of the year are a critical period. If the market trend is relatively strong during this period, it will often affect the overall trend of the following year. On the contrary, if the market trend is relatively weak during this period, it will often affect the overall trend of the following year.

In the absence of obvious trend guidance, the market at the end of each year and the beginning of the year is often relatively light, in a narrow range of fluctuations, and the fluctuations of most investment varieties are not much different from the overall economy. However, speculative speculation varieties are very active in this period, if they are strong, they are very strong, and if they are weak, there is the possibility of diving.

Chapter II: Capital Control

Section 1 Analyze the amount of funds in the market and the proportion of capital investment

First, the low price of the entry, the low volume of easy growth, the high volume of the high volume, the high shock recovery of funds

1. The market has been cold for a long time, which is convenient for low-level and low-key entry, and widens the distance from the sale of assets

2. The market can not be overheated when it rises, and it can be raised to a higher price with a lower amount of energy (cost).

3. When the market tends to be hot, shipments are shipped at a high level

4. When the market heat and cost are too high, the funds will be recovered in batches

Section 2: Identifying the types of capital investment entities

1. **Sexual function organs

2. Investment private institutions

3. Listed companies

4. Joint investment institutions

5. Professional-level investors

Common advantages: unique identity, financial support from the bank, understanding the use of high-level information policy side guidance. It has a great advantage in terms of capital, technology and information. Common purpose and difference: As the main body of investment, its purpose is the same, that is, to make profits and cash out in a timely manner. Then their difference is whether the funds at the time of operation can meet the target actual operation, and whether they can predict the sudden change of the market in time and the accuracy of judgment. In the end, it depends on the experience and adaptability of the actual combat. All instantaneous market fluctuations must have the intervention of capital, and it is difficult for people to act collectively when they are scattered; Generally speaking, a large number of large amplitudes, when the market sentiment is high, it is suitable for capital operation, and capital will create such an environmental atmosphere; When market sentiment is sluggish, it is suitable for capital selection and looking for opportunities; The essence of the capital market provides the soil for capital profits, and on the other hand, the operation of capital is an indispensable process for regulating the capital market;

Chapter III Capital Operations

Section 1 Rules

1. Basic Rules

1. Perception of the economy (data indicators, information)

2. Passed the disk verification (technical analysis)

3. Confirm according to the trend (ensure the safety of funds)

4. Execute according to the plan (ensure rationality)

2. Trading Principles

1. The principle of watching the market: In many cases, which bears in our eyes do not really exist, but the momentum of the rise is insufficient, and the capital does not have the confidence to do it, causing the people to follow the trend; Stocks with Zhuang, except for the highs and lows to pull up and follow-up, as long as there is no Zhuang's participation, the frequent operation of retail investors will not be too large; As long as the amount can be amplified, the dealer will have abnormal movements; For unconventional special trends, we should look at them from different perspectives of short-term, medium-term and long-term ~ Short-term traders (most stockholders) have little impact on medium-term and long-term trends except for providing liquidity. The long-term is moral constraints, the medium-term is legal constraints, and the short-term is practical action~; Information (trend) is king, capital is dominant; The high market will fall for a long time; When there are large sports events and other entertainment activities that attract the public's energy, the market will be affected to a certain extent and be weak~; The level of the stock price is relative, not the current price;

2. The principle of trial order: you can buy an appropriate amount in the early stage, increase the position after determining the trend, reduce the position appropriately after a certain value of profit, and when the resistance level is uncertain, you can leave the market with a profit first, and the trend is determined to enter the market; Don't put money into it at one time, otherwise the market will become very passive, unless you are sure or have a clear goal, otherwise blind entry will not be profitable, it will only give money;

3. Operating principle: the purpose of daily operation is different from that of overall operation, daily operation is the control of cost, and overall operation is the control of position, but the standard of income is unique, that is, the growth ratio of invested funds; Selling at a high level and buying at a low level does not bring real gains, its essence is the expansion of growth space, of course, it also avoids the loss of decline; People can't control their emotions, we can only control the behavior under bad emotions~ Think about it before the operation, execute it during the operation, and don't regret it after the operation; If there is a trend that deviates from expectations, don't take chances; You'll never lose it all, and you'll never get it all~

4. Cost control: Try to buy at a price lower than the selling price on the same day, and the holding cost on the book will be reduced~

Cost calculation formula: Present Value - Profit = Cost of Holding (Profit can be negative)

The increase in holding cost is divided into two kinds: passive increase in holding cost for the rising market, stock prices continue to rise, it is impossible to buy back at a low price after avoiding risks, and can only make up for it in time, resulting in an increase in holding costs, as long as the timely return has little impact on profits, and the other is to actively increase the holding cost, which is generally caused by operational errors in the volatile market, and the holding cost rises caused by low price and high price buying, which has a greater impact on profits ~

5. Earnings statistics: expected returns: that is, the expected increase above the purchase price; M*N%

Spread Gain: The difference between the price drop and the original price is covered; M*

%

Spillover Gain: Expected increase gain from spread gain; M*(

%*N%)

Transaction costs: the fees incurred by the transaction;

Total Returns = Expected Returns + Spread Returns + Spillover Gains - Transaction Costs;

Spread formula: M(N%+

%+

%*N%) (Note: M is the current market capitalization, N% is the expected rate of return,

% is the spread yield,

%*M% is the spillover yield), the spread formula minus the transaction cost is the total return;

Spread formula: M(

%+(

%^2)/(1-

%)) or M*

%+M0*

%^2；M0*

%^2 is equivalent to M(

%^2)/(1-

% is the difference between the decline and the percentage increase,

%+(

%^2)/(1-

% is the spread yield in the spread formula

%

(Note: M is the current market value, M0 is the market value calculated at the falling price,

% is the decline);

Section 2: Objective Analysis Method

To face things correctly and analyze things objectively, we should pay attention to avoiding two points:

1. Don't evade (don't look at the problem, ignore the problem) 2. Don't be pretentious (exaggerated expression)

Specific self-analysis method: from the four aspects of thinking, doing, understanding, and mentality, step by step, to judge whether the understanding of things is in line with reality;

1. Thinking (not pretentious): the starting point of self-consciousness and thinking, in the stage of thinking, don't always want to stand on the high point of morality, personality, class, and status, people are made choices based on different life experiences, don't always set yourself up to the high point of self-worth in advance and then look at others;

2. Do (not too aggressive): respect the choices of others within the framework of self;

3. Understanding (objective): rationally analyze everything around you, without adding self-suggestion;

4. Mentality (ordinary heart): improve self-control;

Note: 1->2-> (3->4); (3,4) after the psychological suggestion is generated, it will in turn affect 1;

The surrounding influences will magnify the disadvantages of staging, and it is necessary to distinguish whether opinions and comments are rational or emotional;

Conclusion: Sincerely obey the way of heaven and speak lightly about good and evil;