Lead:

The so-called ****** means that the renminbi can be freely converted, traded and circulated internationally, and has become a settlement and reserve currency widely recognized by all countries in the world.

In a recent article in Taiwan's "Commonwealth" magazine, the trade scene on the China-Myanmar border was described: Mujie City, a border city in northern Myanmar, faces Ruili River and Ruili City in Yunnan Province. In Mujie City, the renminbi is unimpeded, and businessmen from Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore are bustling.

Walking down the Mekong River, Chiang Rai, the big port in northern Thailand, is full of Chinese cargo ships flying the five-star red flag, and many merchants here have signs that say "Welcome to the RMB". The vendors wore aprons with two pockets, one for baht and one for renminbi.

Today, the renminbi has become another "hard currency" in Southeast Asia after the US dollar, the euro and the yen. The circulation of the renminbi in neighboring countries is a manifestation of the new stage of China's economic growth. At the same time, it indicates that the ****** process has begun.

So, what is ******? The so-called ****** means that the renminbi can be freely converted, traded and circulated internationally, and has become a settlement and reserve currency widely recognized by all countries in the world.

The meaning includes three aspects: first, RMB cash enjoys a certain degree of liquidity abroad; Secondly, and most importantly, RMB-denominated financial products have become an investment tool for major international financial institutions, including the central bank, and for this reason, the scale of the RMB-denominated financial market has been expanding. Finally, the transactions settled in RMB in international trade should reach a certain proportion. This is a common standard for measuring the ****** of money, the main of which are the last two points.

On December 24, 2008, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to carry out RMB settlement of goods trade between Guangdong and the Yangtze River Delta region and Hong Kong and Macao, and Guangxi and Yunnan and ASEAN.

In July 2009, the Administrative Measures and Implementation Rules for the RMB Cross-border Trade Settlement Pilot Program were promulgated, and more than 400 enterprises in the five pilot cities of Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan and Zhuhai were qualified for the pilot program.

Subsequently, the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice on matters related to export tax rebates for RMB settlement of cross-border trade, and the General Administration of Customs also further improved the relevant operational rules for customs declaration. All these measures have aroused people's attention to ******. Although from an economic point of view, cross-border settlement of RMB does not mean that RMB has been internationalized, the expansion of RMB overseas circulation will inevitably lead to the internationalization of RMB and make it a world currency.

From the perspective of the law of development, after the economic strength of any country increases, the country's currency will inevitably move towards internationalization. With the rapid development of China's economy, the internationalization of the renminbi has become the "consensus" of many experts and scholars.

In 1999, Professor Rudy Dembson, a well-known economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States, said that in 20 years, in Asia, China's currency may be dominant, and in South and North America, the dollar will be universal. In the rest of the region, the euro will dominate. Nobel laureate in economics and the "father of the euro" Mundell said that there will be two key factors in the internationalization of the renminbi, namely the expectation of renminbi appreciation and the free convertibility of the renminbi. He explained that whether the renminbi can become an international currency depends on the decision of the market. For the renminbi to become a more attractive currency in the market, investors need to believe that the value of the renminbi is stable and has room for growth, and that it is widely available and can be freely convertible.

It can be seen that ****** is the trend of the times, so what benefits can ****** bring to China?

The benefits to China are mainly manifested in the following aspects: 1. Enhancing China's international status and enhancing China's influence on the world economy, 2. Reducing exchange rate risks and promoting the development of China's international trade and investment, 3. Further promoting the development of China's border trade, and 4. Obtaining international seigniorage revenue.

Nevertheless, although the ****** is the general trend, it will not be smooth sailing, and the main factors affecting the ****** at present include the lack of growth in the international circulation of the renminbi; the depth and breadth of the domestic financial market and the degree of international standardization are insufficient; In the process of internationalization, the external value of the renminbi may change dramatically, hindering the autonomy of economic policy. Among them, the lack of international circulation of RMB will become the biggest problem.

Among them, the lack of international circulation of RMB will become the biggest problem. Because in the golden age of the gold standard, although Britain had a large current account surplus, it exported a large amount of pounds sterling to the world through capital exports; After the establishment of the Bretton Woods system, the United States provided dollar liquidity to the world through its current account deficit. Although China has become one of the world's largest trade surpluses, the scale of OFDI remains small.

Moreover, looking at the practice of currency internationalization of major countries in the world, the process of currency internationalization requires that the currency issuing country should have the following conditions: a large share of the global economy, a high degree of political stability, a stable macroeconomic environment and a sound market economic system, and the ability of sustainable economic development.

From the perspective of China's development situation, there are still many deficiencies in promoting the ****** process. Compared with countries with a relatively high degree of currency internationalization, there is still a certain gap in China's economic strength. At the same time, there are still some outstanding problems in China's macroeconomic environment. In addition, at this stage, the foundation for the large-scale promotion of the internationalization process of the people's towel is not solid.

Take, for example, the freely convertible capital account. The main reason why China has adopted the gradual model of capital account convertibility is to create as much time as possible to create the preconditions for the implementation of capital account convertibility. These prerequisites, in short, are a stable macroeconomy, a sound micro-mechanism, a healthy financial system, effective financial regulation, and a favorable international environment.

Clearly, China has not yet fully met these conditions. China's macro economy has many contradictions, it is still very unstable, the existing mechanism needs to be improved, the financial system is relatively weak, the financial supervision is also relatively weak, and the international environment is relatively severe. There is still a long way to go before the preconditions for RMB capital account conversion are ripe. In this case, the "progressive mode" becomes an inevitable choice.

A strong currency must be backed by a strong and efficient economy. For ******, we must not only recognize the long-term opportunities and importance, but also see the current difficulties, avoid blind "optimism" or "pessimism", and take every step in a down-to-earth manner.