8. How high can China's housing prices rise?

Lead:

Although China's housing prices have reached unattainable heights, there are still some advocates hired by interest groups who claim that China's housing prices are normal. These people who think that housing prices should be so high do not know that China's housing prices are not only high in the eyes of ordinary people, but also outrageously high in the eyes of many foreigners. China's high housing prices have become a laughing stock for people all over the world.

China's housing prices remain high for a long time, far beyond the reach of ordinary people. Take Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing and other cities as examples to illustrate, in these cities, the price of buying a new three-bedroom for a normal family to live in is more than 3 million.

For the rich, for the cattle on the rich list, 3 million is a small number, but for most Chinese, the number is heavy, heavy enough to affect the happiness of all. On this point, we can calculate an account: now the per capita monthly income in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing is about 4,000 yuan, and the monthly income of a family is about 8,000 months, assuming that the family spends 50% of the monthly income on buying a house, it can take out 4,000 yuan per month, and it is less than 50,000 yuan a year. What does this mean, this means that it takes more than 60 years for the average family to buy a house, and the life of a house is only 70 years. You know, we don't include the interest on the loan here.

Housing prices are so high, but in this society, there are still some interest groups who have hired spokespeople who say that China's housing prices are normal. In their opinion, China has money, and most of the Chinese have money. These people who think that housing prices should be so high do not know that China's housing prices are not only high in the eyes of ordinary people, but also outrageously high in the eyes of many foreigners. They don't know that China's housing prices have become a laughing stock for people all over the world.

This can be seen through Shenzhen, which is about to become an international city. Although the data released by ** shows that the per capita living area of Shenzhen is as high as 29.6 square meters, this is behind the average data, because Shenzhen locals and property speculators have a large number of houses, while outsiders have an average living usable area of only 8 square meters. This data, not to mention compared with developed countries, even compared with the poor slums in Africa, seems very narrow, because the poor people have a tent and live more spacious than the people in Shenzhen.

Nowhere else is the house-price-to-income ratio so high. In the face of excessively high housing prices, many people admit that they are becoming more and more unable to understand the property market, and buying a house seems to have become an unattainable dream. So, what exactly is contributing to the current high house prices? The reasons for this are roughly as follows:

Investment push. As people's incomes increase, the demand for investment grows. However, at present, there are few investment channels, and housing prices have continued to rise in recent years, so that many people think that housing prices only rise and fall, and that buying houses only makes money and does not lose money, and they have joined the "army of speculation", and there is a serious tendency of "investment" in housing consumption. Excessive investment is speculation, and the wind of speculative home buying is blowing more and more fiercely, which has played a role in fueling high housing prices.

Funding pushes. Because monetary policy is relatively loose and the market is liquid, that is, there is too much money in circulation in the market. In 2009, China's new credit scale was nearly 10 trillion yuan, equivalent to the increase in the past three or four years. Abundant funds will inevitably stimulate investment demand, and some real economies have not yet completely come out of the trough due to the impact of the financial crisis, and a large amount of capital will pour into the real estate market, which will inevitably make housing prices rise too quickly.

Driven by land prices. In recent years, the rise in land prices caused by "land finance" has become a major driver of high housing prices. The so-called "land finance" refers to the income obtained by some localities by relying on the transfer of land use rights. For example, in 2009, the land transfer revenue of a city in the coastal area reached 120 billion yuan, which was 2.3 times that of the local fiscal revenue of 52.079 billion yuan. Due to the excessive dependence on "land finance" in many places, the excessive reliance on the real estate industry to drive economic growth, and the imperfect system of the current land "bidding, auction and listing" (that is, land bidding, auction, listing, etc.) system, the highest price wins, resulting in frequent "land kings", land prices and housing prices affect each other and rise alternately.

Institutional reasons. The development history of China's real estate market is only more than 10 years, and the system and mechanism are not perfect. For example, because housing has both people's livelihood and commodity dual attributes, most countries have both market supply of commercial housing, and public housing to support investment, China in the past 10 years or so more emphasis on solving housing demand through the real estate market, low-income groups of affordable housing supply is insufficient, too much arrears, resulting in a very serious structural imbalance in housing supply. Another example is the inadequacy of the real estate tax system, with China being one of the few countries in the world that does not levy real estate taxes, making the cost of owning or hoarding large quantities of housing too low and fuelling speculation. At the same time, there are still many problems in the real estate market, such as unequal rights, information asymmetry, and insufficient competition.

In particular, it should be noted that the excessively high housing prices are also related to the rapid development of urbanization. In recent years, urbanization has continued to develop rapidly, a large number of rural population has shifted to urban areas, and the development of urbanization and the natural growth of urban population have generated a new and large demand for housing, and the problem of housing supply is more prominent. According to the estimation of the urban development rate from 1998 to 2008, by 2015, China's urbanization rate will increase to about 52 percent, and the urban population will exceed the rural population. In the next five years, it is estimated that the number of people in cities and towns will increase by 15 million per year, and the number of new households will increase by 5 million per year. At the same time, with the rapid development of China's economy, the upgrading of residents' consumption structure has accelerated, and the demand for housing improvement has increased significantly, which has also exacerbated the gap between supply and demand of urban housing and brought pressure on housing prices.

In a deeper sense, high housing prices are also a reflection of many contradictions in economic and social development in the housing sector. For example, the long-standing imbalance between urban and rural areas and regional development is still prominent, and a large number of people are concentrated in the eastern region and large cities, resulting in excessive housing pressure in these areas. For example, the current financial system makes the asymmetry between the power and financial power of the local government, which has become an important reason for the problem of "making money from land"; For example, corruption is more prominent in the real estate sector, which leads to the weakening of the implementation of the country's macro-control policies; Wait a minute. These issues have a direct or indirect impact on the real estate market. High housing prices are not just a problem in the real estate sector, but a combination of factors.