8. Which is more important, the timing of the investment or the investment project
Lead:
Generally speaking, when buying and selling stocks, choosing the right time to intervene in the market is more important than choosing individual stocks. It's usually easy to start thinking about which stocks have potential, but when to buy them is often confusing. Whether you are an investor or a speculator, if you want to be a winner, you must understand the main trends in the market and follow the trend and choose stocks that are in line with the direction of the market, rather than operating against the trend.
The fluctuation of stock prices is very similar to the tidal phenomenon in nature, the rise and fall of the stock market is like the waves of the sea, one wave pushes one wave, the tide rises and falls, if you can grasp the ups and downs of the stock market, you can follow the trend and pan for gold in the big waves.
In a bullish market, each high price will be the bottom price of the next wave; In a bearish market, each low price will be the sky-high price of the next wave. If investors can judge the situation and grasp the general trend of stock price fluctuations, they do not have to be busy around the small fluctuations of stock prices. In this way, you can not only seize the favorable opportunity to make a lot of money, but also avoid unexpected risks and stop losses in time. Eliot's wave theory provides investors with an effective tool for identifying stock price fluctuations.
Eliot, the originator of the wave theory, was a professional accountant in the restaurant and railroad industries, but retired in 1927 due to a serious illness in middle age and lived in California for a long time. It was during his recuperation that he developed his own theory of stock price waves.
Elliott divided the uptrend wave into five wave patterns. The first wave is the starting wave, the second wave is the initial adjustment wave, the third wave is the development wave, the fourth wave is the readjustment wave, and the fifth wave is the high wave. The downward trend wave is generally composed of three waves, wave A is the falling shipping wave, wave B is the rebound shipping wave, and wave C is the bottoming shipping wave. From the composition of the wave pattern, the five rising waves and the three falling waves constitute a situation map of the ebb and flow of the stock market. After the above eight waves (five up and three down), one cycle is completed and the trend will enter the next eight wave cycle. The length of time does not change the pattern of the wave, as the market will still develop according to its basic pattern. Waves can be elongated or shortened, but their basic form remains the same. In conclusion, the wave theory can be summed up in one sentence, the "eight-wave cycle".
Wave theory has gone beyond traditional graphical analysis techniques to provide a holistic analysis of market volatility, further warning signs of the head and bottom, and the reason and timing of the development of specific pattern patterns. Wave theory can also help market analysts find out where the market cycle lies.
A drop of water has its own color and composition, but when it merges into the ocean and becomes part of the ocean, it also follows the current of the ocean. Therefore, as far as individual stocks on the exchange are concerned, they are like water droplets in the ocean, following the trend. According to observation, more than 75% of individual stocks in the bullish market will be bullish; In the short market, more than 90% of individual stocks will follow the trend.
Generally speaking, when buying and selling stocks, choosing the right time to intervene in the market is more important than choosing individual stocks. It's usually easy to start thinking about which stocks have potential, but when to buy them is often a problem. Whether you are an investor or a speculator, if you want to be a winner, you must understand the main trends in the market and follow the trend and choose stocks that are in line with the direction of the market, rather than operating against the trend.
American oil tycoon Hammer has a legendary life story. In early 1921, Hammer left the United States for the Soviet Union. When he saw that the large quantities of platinum, precious stones, and furs in the Sumaral region could not be sold, but there was a severe shortage of food, Hammer had a bold idea.
At that time, there was a bumper grain harvest in the United States, and food prices fell. So Hammer bought a large amount of wheat in the United States with $1 million and shipped it to Petrograd in the Soviet Union. After selling the grain, Hammer purchased large quantities of furs and other goods from the Soviet Union back to the United States. In the back and forth, Hammer earned a large price difference and made a good profit.
At the same time, Hammer solved the food crisis in the Soviet Union and received a special reward from Lenin, who encouraged Hammer to invest in factories in the Soviet Union and allowed him to mine the stones of Siberia. Hammer became the first foreigner in the Soviet Union to obtain mining rights.
The barter trade between the United States and the Soviet Union thus began. Hammer organized the United States Corporation, which brought together more than 30 American companies. He became an agent of the Soviet Union's trade with the United States.
Hammer spent nearly 10 years in the Soviet Union, during which time he went from millionaire to billionaire. Still, Hammer's glory continues. In 1931 he left the Soviet Union and returned to the United States.
Hammer's return to the United States coincided with the Great Depression in the thirties of the 20th century. Even so, Hammer seized the opportunity to make money in the big picture of the country. At the time, Roosevelt was running for the presidency of the United States. All kinds of phenomena show that Roosevelt will become the president of the United States. Roosevelt had a well-known hobby of drinking, and if he was elected president, the prohibition of alcohol in 1919 in the United States would probably be repealed.
Hammer concluded that there would be a surge in demand for beer and whiskey in the United States, and that there would be a huge shortage of casks for the liquor. Hammer immediately set up a temporary barrel processing plant in the New York dock from several ships of high-quality lumber from the Soviet Union, and a modern barrel factory in New Jersey.
As Hammer expected, Roosevelt became president of the United States. Shortly after Roosevelt took office, he announced the repeal of Prohibition. At this time, Hammer Cooperage's casks were being produced in a steady stream, and Hammer's casks were snapped up at high prices by distilleries around the world. Hammer had a lucrative monopoly on almost the entire U.S. barrel market.
Hammer took advantage of the victory and began to enter the liquor industry, running a whiskey business. Hammer bought several wineries one after another. His Dante brand whiskey has become one of the best in the United States, with annual sales of 1 million cases.
Hamer's success lies in the fact that he is always around the country's overall situation, and he is able to grasp the development trend of the macro market. This has brought him great wealth.
From this, we can know that choosing the timing of the investment is more important than choosing the investment project. Warren Buffett also believes that the safest investment strategy is to invest first and wait for an opportunity, rather than waiting for an opportunity to invest again. Investing with the mentality of "the boat goes straight to the bridge" and getting by is the most common obstacle to personal investment, and it is also the main reason why most people cannot get rich.