Chapter 103: The Prisoner's Dilemma

Yu Fan was still very surprised by the glasses man's initiative to speak, generally in this oppressive environment, few suspects operate like this. This man with glasses is a typical dominant personality who wants to take the initiative in any situation, especially in an objectively unfavorable situation, this personality will be more obvious.

Yu Fan ignored him, walked to his stool, dragged the stool out, sat down, slowly opened the notebook, knocked the pen on the table, and said, "Then let's start." ”

The man with glasses deliberately made a very relaxed expression and said, "Leader, I think we must have some misunderstanding here, don't you think this?" As he spoke, he shook the handcuffs on his hands.

Yu Fan was unmoved: "Say, you know something, tell me everything you know." ”

The man with glasses still had an innocent expression: "Comrade, I'm just a salesman, I really don't know anything, what do you want me to say?" ”

Yu Fan: "Who instructed you to come here to commit this scam?" ”

Glasses man: "I really didn't know that this was a trick to deceive, and I was innocent, I just followed the process." ”

Yu Fan: "Who instructed it?" ”

Glasses Man: "Boss." ”

Yu Fan: "Who is the boss?" ”

Glasses man: "Jiang Ran hydrocarbon." ”

Yu Fan: "How old are you and what are your characteristics?" ”

Man with glasses: "About 60 years old, right?" I can't say for sure, because he has a big beard, so I can't tell the age. ”

Yu Fan was surprised, this feature is very similar to Chen Tizhou. Yu Fan took out a photo of Chen Tizhou and asked the man with glasses: "Take a closer look if it's him?" ”

Man with glasses: "The body is about the same, but the face is not clear." I haven't met our boss a few times, and he's usually secretive. ”

Yu Fan: "Where is your boss now?" ”

Man with glasses: "It should be in LZ City right now." ”

Yu Fan: "Aren't you from XA?" ”

Glasses Man: "How did you know we came from XA?" ”

Yu Fan: ""Where public or private property is defrauded, and the amount is relatively large, the sentence is up to three years imprisonment, short-term detention or controlled release, and/or a fine; where the amount is huge or there are other serious circumstances, a sentence of between 3 and 10 years imprisonment and a concurrent fine is to be given; where the amount is especially huge or there are other especially serious circumstances, a sentence of 10 or more years imprisonment or indefinite imprisonment is to be given, and a concurrent fine or confiscation of property. We already know your information well, it depends on your level of cooperation, and then decide your sentencing. If you can make meritorious deeds, things are not so serious. ”

The man with glasses was no longer so relaxed, and he asked, "Our matter is not that serious, is it?" “

Yu Fan: "Whether the sentencing is serious or not depends on your performance, but also on the performance of your companions." ”

The man in glasses began to look a little anxious: "Why do you want to look at my companion's performance?" ”

Yu Fan: "We are based on the principle of confession, leniency, and strictness. If the three of you are the first to recruit everything, they will get the maximum reduction in their sentence, and on the other hand, the person who recruits late will receive the full sentence because your information is worthless. ”

After listening to Yu Fan's explanation, the man with glasses began to lower his head, and it could be seen from his expression that he was hesitating, he was thinking about whether his other two accomplices would confess in advance? If you confess in advance, you will lose a lot. However, if none of the three of them confessed, Yu Fan would not be able to ask anything, and they should not be able to be convicted of serious crimes.

In fact, at the same time in the other two rooms, Chen Jieyang and Guo Na also said the same thing to the other two suspects, and at this moment, the three suspects were struggling with how to choose in three different rooms. How will the companion choose?

This is the classic mental model – the prisoner's dilemma!

A prisoner's dilemma is a peculiar game between two captured prisoners that illustrates why it is difficult to maintain cooperation even when it is beneficial for both parties. The prisoner's dilemma is a representative example of a non-zero-sum game in game theory, reflecting that the best choice of the individual is not the best choice of the group. Although the dilemma itself is only a model, similar situations often occur in the real world, such as price competition, environmental protection, and interpersonal relations.

In 1950, Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher of the RAND Corporation in the United States formulated a theory of the relevant dilemma, which was later elaborated by the consultant Albert Tucker in a prisoner's way and named it the "prisoner's dilemma". The two conspirators were put in prison and could not communicate with each other. If neither of them denounces the other, each goes to jail for a year because the evidence is uncertain; If one person denounces and the other is silent, the whistleblower is immediately released for meritorious service, and the silent person is imprisoned for 10 years for non-cooperation; If they expose each other, they will both be sentenced to eight years in prison because the evidence is conclusive. Since the prisoners are unable to trust each other, they tend to expose each other rather than remain silent.

The same psychological conclusion is reflected in the spectacled male trio, and the three of them start to actively expose each other after only a short period of thought.

In Yu Fan's interrogation room, the man with glasses explained all their ins and outs.

Glasses man: "Originally, I was a XA training company, specializing in training for enterprises, and by chance I learned about their water purifier project, so I went to apply for their salesman, in fact, we knew that this was a scam at the beginning, and the teacher who trained us was our boss Jiang Ranhydro. At first, we set up stalls in the family area of XA City, but later we moved to the surrounding urban villages and county seats, and then these places were slowly tightened, so we came to LZ with Boss Jiang to explore the market. In fact, there seems to be a partner above Boss Jiang, but we have never seen it. When we came to LZ, we had a low-key attitude, starting with the surrounding towns and villages, and the countryside surrounded the city, and we were almost done, so we developed agents here, and then we continued to withdraw XA. “

Yu Fan asked: "So your Boss Jiang is also in LZ City now?" ”

The man with glasses nodded: "Yes, he has been in LZ City recently, because in a few days we are going to open a dealer investment promotion association in LZ City, and the formation of this meeting is relatively large, so he will personally stay here for a while." ”

Later, the glasses man explained the contact information of their boss Jiang Ranhydro and the address of LZ City.

The man with glasses pleaded with a humble attitude: "Comrade policeman, that's all I know, do you think I can make meritorious service for my crimes?" “

After Yu Fan lowered his head and sorted out the information, he got up and prepared to leave, and said, "As for whether the information you provided is true, we still need to verify it, and then make a decision on your performance." Also, I'm not a police officer. ”

The man with glasses wondered: "Then who are you?" ”

Yu Fan raised his head and smiled slightly: "I'm a psychochemist." ”