Chapter 230: The Law of Counter-Cyclicality
There is a well-known Moore's Law in the world of CPUs, which reads:
When the price remains the same, the number of components that can fit on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every 18-24 months, and the performance doubles. In other words, the performance of a computer that can be bought per dollar will more than double every 18-24 months.
This law is also known as the "law of strong periodicity".
But in the memory market, this law not only does not apply, but under human manipulation, there is a "counter-cyclical law".
The best at using this law is Sanxin Company, which can be called the existence of the grandfather.
Sanxin makes full use of the characteristics of the strong cycle of the memory industry, relying on the government's blood transfusion, when the price falls, overproduction, and other enterprises cut investment, it goes against the trend and expands production crazily, and further kills the price of products through large-scale production, so as to force competitors to withdraw from the market or even go bankrupt directly, which the world calls "counter-cyclical law".
In the field of memory, Sanxin has sacrificed a total of three "counter-cyclical laws", the first two occurred in the mid-80s and early 90s, so that Sanxin started from scratch and achieved the position of the memory boss.
But Sanxin obviously felt that the game was not big enough, so before and after the 08 financial crisis, he raised the "counter-cyclical" butcher's knife for the third time.
At the beginning of 07, Microsoft launched the Vista operating system that eats memory, DRAM manufacturers judged that the demand for memory will increase significantly, so they have increased production capacity, as a result, Vista's sales are less than expected, DRAM oversupply and prices have plummeted, and the 08 financial crisis has worsened, and the price of DRAM particles has collapsed from $2.25 to $0.31. At this time, Sanxin made a jaw-dropping move: 118% of Sanxin's total profits in 07 years were invested in DRAM expansion business, deliberately aggravating industry losses, and adding the last straw to the opponents who were struggling to survive.
The effect is significant, DRAM prices have plummeted, falling below the cost of cash in mid-'08 and even below the cost of materials at the end of the year. At the beginning of 09, the third German manufacturer Qimonda was the first to fail to hold on and declared bankruptcy, and the memory players on the European continent disappeared. At the beginning of 12 years, the fifth-place Elpida declared bankruptcy, and Japan, which once occupied more than 50% of the DRAM market, also lost the last card.
On the night that Elpida declared bankruptcy, the headquarters of Sanxin in Gyeonggi Province was bright all night, and the stock price rose sharply the next day, and the whole world knew that the people of Hanguo had won again this time.
So far, there are only three players left in the DRAM field: Sanxin, Hynix and Micron.
But.
Since the beginning of 20X8, the memory market has added a new player, Z country Ziguang.
After Tsinghua Unigroup successfully produced DDR memory, Sanxin did not act rashly, but sometimes reduced production and sometimes increased production according to market demand, so as to stabilize the price in a range and ensure its own profits.
In 20X9, Dajiang Storage's NAND storage achieved mass production, with amazing production capacity, which has threatened Sanxin's market share.
Even so, in terms of NAND storage, Sanxin Company only reduced the price appropriately and did not move.
In 20X0, Unisplendour achieved mass production of DDR3 and successful DDR4 research and development, but Sanxin Company still did not take big action.
The "Fourth Counter-Cyclical Law" has not been promulgated for a long time.
The reason is that the "counter-cyclical law" may be difficult to replicate in other countries, but here in country Z, it will only be played more skillfully. For example, Sanxin and LG through counter-cyclical investment, successfully defeated the Japanese panel industry, and the government of country Z also did the same, through years of blood transfusion and subsidies, took money to smash out a crystal oriental, and even seized a large number of market share of Sanxin screens.
In the face of an opponent of the size of country Z, the people of the cold country have extreme fear in their hearts.
But now it's 20X1.
Looking at the rapidly growing and growing purple light storage, if you don't make a move, you won't have a chance to make a move.
The relevant practitioners on the side of country Z are clearly aware that the reason why Sanxin has not moved in recent years is because they are storing "ammunition".
Ammunition for a shocking battle!
……
Cold Country.
Sanxin Company, internal mobilization meeting.
Li Jianrong clenched his fists and said:
"Ladies and gentlemen, it's time for a life-and-death showdown!"
"For this day, we have prepared more than $300 billion in cash reserves, and the government has also pledged full assistance."
"And this time, what we're going to kill is a dragon, a super monster."
"For defeating such a monster, many shareholders have no confidence, Sanxin cannot be the opponent of the government of country Z, they have endless ammunition."
"I don't think so, I'm sure we'll win!"
"Because our screen and memory technology is more advanced, the yield is higher, the production efficiency is higher, and the production cost is lower, we have an inherent advantage!"
"Once the price war starts, they will lose more, and for every one dollar we lose, they will lose at least two, three or even more."
"Just like the competition between a strong warrior and a dragon, each sword will release a large amount of blood on the dragon's body, and the warrior consumes a certain amount of physical strength."
"A 30% or 50% price reduction is just the beginning, because their product performance is insufficient, and the price must be reduced by 60% or 70%, otherwise it is impossible to sell."
"If the price drops a little more, the government of country Z must go back to the bottom and come up with valuable financial expenditures to continue this war."
"But we lost 500 billion dollars, is the government of country Z willing to pay a greater price to protect those small companies? Do their people agree to take their pensions, their people's fat and people's anointing, and plunge into this senseless competition? ”
"Good! Assuming that the government of country Z withstands the pressure of the people and persists to the end, our HBM flash memory should be commercialized on a large scale, and all DDR technologies on the market are eliminated, so what's the point of them winning? Can their people accept the fact that the government is spending hundreds of billions of dollars just to keep a few backward companies? ”
"In any case, we will be the victors in this war, and even the most terrible dragons will fall to our swords in front of the most skilled warriors."
"This war, I want to call it the 'Dragon Slaying War', everyone, please join this war with me, create the glory of Sanxin, and write the glory of the people of the Han country!"
Listen to this blood-boiling speech.
All the Sanxin executives raised their fists, their faces full of fanaticism!
"Victory must belong to us Smecta!"
"Slay the dragon! Slay the Dragon! ”
"We are about to win against country Z! We will be national heroes! We will be adored by the whole people. ”
"In this universe, there is no one who is the opponent of our Great Cold Nation!"
……
Xinghai Technology.
In the high-rise conference room.
Looking at Zhao Guowei, chairman of Ziguang Group, who came to Shanghai on a special trip, Chen Jin asked him a few questions that he was most concerned about.
"Mr. Zhao, the people of the Han country are menacing, and it is your company's life that they want to take, can the purple light stop it?"
"Just in time!"
Zhao Guowei smiled disdainfully: "I was still trying to break my wrist with them." ”
"Oh, why did Mr. Zhao have so much confidence? Don't be careless. Ling Jundong interjected and reminded kindly.
"The purple light is not the purple light of a few months ago."
Zhao Guowei shook his head and said: "The people of the Han country will not believe it at all, we have increased the yield of DDR particles from more than 20 percent to 99.7% in just four months, and the production efficiency has increased by 250%, and in terms of production cost, we have reduced a 4GB DDR4 particle to about 3 pieces...... This is definitely lower than the people of the cold country! ”
"The last thing we are afraid of is a price war."
Nest grass!
99.7%。
The yield improvement of the purple memory is amazing, right?
Chen Jindu was very surprised, but the horror of this official "virtual factory".
Zhao Guowei continued: "We are not afraid of the price war, we are afraid of the backwardness of technology, so our DDR4 high-frequency version, DDR5, DDR6 are in parallel research and development, the high-frequency board DDR4 has been basically completed recently, and it should be able to win DDR5 within the year." The next generation of HBM memory is also being tackled by the team, but the results will not be available until next year...... I hope that the time of this battle will be longer, as long as Sanxin does not let go of the last big move, we are sure of victory. ”
"No, it won't."
Chen Jin nodded: "DDR memory is still the mainstream, where is there a big move?" However, it is also necessary to do a good job of secrecy, show the enemy weakness, and never expose one's own details in advance. ”
"You know, we take confidentiality very seriously."
……
Unisplendour's powerful performance.
In addition, there is a country that has finally covered it.
Chen Jin is not particularly worried about the strong challenge launched by Sanxin Company, a three-year-old child challenges an adult giant, and he is just killing himself.
However.
On July 7th.
A news from Zhongxin International shocked Chen Jin's body again.
7nm chip manufacturing process, a major breakthrough!