First mover advantage

The coin spun upwards and then downwards into the big hands, and the eyes of Higayama followed it closely the whole time. This is his role as a moderator, and he must prevent players from cheating.

The two players didn't even look at the coin, but looked at each other quietly. The choice between heads and tails is over, and the next thing is decided by luck, and sane people know that it won't make a difference to look at.

"Human heads." Long Shan pondered and said in a deep voice, "It is up to Mr. Xu Wen to choose who shoots first." ”

Xu Wen smiled and said, "Of course, the opposite side came first." ”

Liang Jingmo shrugged his shoulders and calmly accepted the result. Xu Wen's answer was completely in his expectation. Because this game is still the same as the original Russian Roulette in general, the game ends when one of them dies. If the first one is shot while shooting, the person who is the next hand does not need to shoot again, which is equivalent to one less risk.

In a 1 in 6 probability, this missing one is considered significant, and the first one is undoubtedly taking a greater risk.

Of course, the first moves will be swapped at the end of each round, and the right to take the initiative to shoot is also relatively balanced by the gap between the first movers, giving the first player the opportunity to take this opportunity to attack. But in the first game, when both sides don't know enough about it, the right to attack is of little significance, and the person who gets the first move will only be more dangerous.

"If it comes, it will be safe." Liang Jingmo smiled and raised his hand to pick up the revolver in front of him. Higayama Takuma glanced left and right, and made a look, and the host, who was originally standing behind the two players, stepped forward at the same time, opened his hand, and sent the bullet in his palm to the player.

At the same time, Higayama Takuma, who was standing between the two, also raised a light-opaque baffle at the right time, which was not large, but it just happened to cover their vision. With their bodies firmly attached to their chairs, the two players were unable to go around the baffle to see the opposite side, but this also ensured that their loading of bullets would not be seen by the person on the other side.

"It's so careful."

Liang Jingmo sneered, put the pistol in front of him, and turned slightly to block the action of reloading. There is an example of Xiang Nanxing a long time ago, he didn't dare to ignore the host standing behind him, who knows if this will be another guy like Xiao Leping who is peeping behind his back?

In the same way, he didn't trust the baffle in front of him. You must know that the enemy opposite him at this time is a host, and those who are standing around to ensure that the game is going on normally are also hosts, who knows if there will be any collusion between them. What seemed to him to be an impenetrable baffle was actually a piece of one-way glass that could be seen through from the other side. If you don't do something to cover it, the other party can directly see his loading action.

So Liang Jingmo completed his reloading work with a rather awkward move. Then he saw that Tsuruma nodded and removed the baffle. "Then, the game is officially on." He said in a deep voice as he took the loaded pistols from both sides, swapped them, and handed them back to the two players. He looked at Liang Jingmo, raised his hand and made a "please" gesture - according to the result of the coin guess just now, he fired the first shot in the first game.

"Whew......" Liang Jingmo exhaled a long breath. He didn't feel it when he first loaded it, but when he touched the pistol again, his face showed a solemn look, as if he suddenly felt that the piece of iron in his hand was so heavy. He tried to shoot several times, and his hand was about to rise, then it hung down heavily, as if he was not strong enough to lift the hand that held the gun.

It's normal to think about it. If the first shot is fired at you, and the other person puts the bullet in the first nest, it means that your life will be over in the next second. When you think about it, who doesn't hesitate.

The piece of iron in the palm of the hand is heavy on the weight of life.

"Feeling nervous, aren't you?"

Just when Liang Jingmo was hesitating, he suddenly heard a voice from the opposite side. raised his head, but saw Xu Wenzheng looking at this side with a smile on his face. His voice was friendly and sounded like a good friend's explanation, but Liang Jingmo knew that with the opposing positions of the two at this time, what came out of his mouth could only be misleading or intimidating.

He shrugged, feigning disapproval.

Xu Wen smiled. "This version of the rules of Russian roulette is very interesting and reminds me of a well-known philosophical problem called the 'Accidental Exam Paradox.'" He said, "I don't know if you've heard this?" ”

Liang Jingmo lowered his head and played with the pistol. "I haven't heard of it." He replied with a smile.

It's a blessing from heaven. Since the other party suddenly wants to say something, he just took this opportunity to delay a little time and take the opportunity to observe the other party. It's a great time like this for an idiot to answer "know" and let it go.

"Let me introduce me, then." Xu Wen actually began to explain, "The 'accidental exam paradox' refers to a fictional event. One day, a teacher announced to his students that an exam would be held on a day from Monday to Friday next day. Based on this premise, the students reasoned. First of all, Friday was the first to be ruled out. ”

Liang Jingmo casually continued: "This is because if there is no exam in the first four days, then the exam can only be taken on Friday." In that case, Friday can't be considered 'unexpected'. ”

"Yes." Xu Wen nodded, "Then they thought of Thursday, but Thursday is not eligible, because according to the conclusion we just speculated, Friday has been ruled out, then Thursday becomes the last day, and those speculations that apply to Friday also apply to it." ”

"That's interesting." Liang Jingmo smiled, "According to this logic, after excluding Thursday, Wednesday can also be excluded with the exact same reasoning process, and then Tuesday." However, if these four days are excluded, the only remaining Monday will also become ineligible. ”

"You got to the most interesting thing about this paradox."

Xu Wen also smiled: "In some versions, this story has an ending. Eventually, the teacher took the test on Wednesday, and the students were really surprised by it - because, according to their reasoning, the exam should not have existed, so no matter what day it was taken, it was just as unexpected for them. ”

"Is this a metaphor?"

"No, because it's clear." Xu Wen said, "For you, the question of where I put the bullet is like an exam that is destined to be unexpected, you can try to reason, but no matter how you think about it, the result will only be a dead end of paradox." ”

"So I should not care about thirty-seven twenty-one, and do whatever comes to mind?" Liang Jingmo raised his eyebrows.

Xu Wen nodded: "If I were you, I would do it." ”

"Okay, then I'll decide to ...... with my first shot"

As he spoke, he slowly raised his hand and pressed the muzzle of the gun to his temple. He closed his eyes, took a few deep breaths, and his fingers clenched and loosened, looking quite nervous. Finally, he made up his mind, slammed his grip on the pistol, and hooked his index finger on the trigger. The moment he was about to deduct it, his movements suddenly stopped.

At this moment, a sly smile appeared at the corner of his mouth.

"I can't reason, I don't think so."

He calmly put down the gun, his face did not change color and his hands did not tremble, and he was almost like the trembling appearance just now. The silver-gray pistol flipped between his fingers, as if he wasn't worried about misfire.

"Although the first shot is pure luck as you say, and no smart person can see through the opponent with a brief contact of just a few minutes, but if you take a long-term view, the first shot is actually the starting point of all observations." He said, "You can see I'm pretending to be nervous, which is good, but then trying to shake me up with such a story is really not clever." ”

He raised his hand and pointed the muzzle of the gun at Xu Wen in front of him: "You use a plausible concept like 'Accidental Exam Paradox' to replace this game, in fact, it is just a trick. If you want me to believe that reasoning really doesn't work in this case, and that I have to rely on my intuition to choose the answer, then the choice I will take is my most instinctive reaction, and you can see a part of the intelligence within me as a person. ”

"Not only that, but if this mentality continues, it may give you a windfall. Another problem with substituting intuition for thinking is that people react more directly. On the turn when it was my turn to place the bullet, even though the bullet was not in the gun in my hand, there was always a feeling that something was more or less unusual, and it might reflect the way I came to my conclusion, or the hesitation to make a decision but then change it on the fly. Once you see such a signal, you can directly bet on a counter-kill, and if you don't know how to win the first game, you will be able to decide the winner. ”

He babbled a lot, but Xu Wen just looked at him with a smile. "So what?" He asked lightly, as if what the other party had just said had nothing to do with him.

"So, interpret your behavior the other way around." Liang Jingmo's fingers had already hooked the trigger, just waiting for it to be pulled, "The story you just told has a psychological implication in addition to confusing concepts. The fact that students couldn't guess when the exam was going to start started when they started excluding Friday, the last day. This gives the potential hint that they might guess the test date if they don't start with the exclusion from behind. In other words, if you draw an analogy between the story and reality, as you do, the lesson of the story is not to ignore the next few in the queue. ”

"You want to implant in me the idea that the further you go, the more risky it is, in this case, it is better to grit your teeth and risk your life in the front, and the next few shots will be easier. But on the other hand, since you're trying to make me think that, it means that the bullet should be loaded with the first three rounds. If I can shrink the scope to this extent, if I don't make good use of the advantages of the first move, wouldn't it be a tyrannical thing? ”

"First mover advantage, you say?" Xu Wen's smile suddenly stiffened.

Until just now, he felt that Liang Jingmo was just bluffing, and this first shot would eventually be risked to the temple. However, from the tone of the last sentence, which suddenly became crazy, he realized that the other party was serious.

"Yes, it's still the 'first mover advantage' you gave me."

Liang Jingmo tilted his head and sneered.

The index finger, which had been hooked for a long time, suddenly pulled the trigger hard!

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