Can the market be predicted?

I think the stock market is not a matter of predictability, it is not necessary to predict is not to predict, many people lose money on prediction, because you can't objectively grasp the market is easy to produce qualitative thinking, if the market does not go in the direction of your prediction, your emotions will turn into a psychological barrier, making it difficult for you to adjust your trading strategy in time, so as to work against the market, resulting in trapping or missing the market.

On the other hand, you may be right or wrong ten times, and one of them will cause you to leave the market, and no one can guarantee that they are right. So what we have to do is to give up the forecast, leave the forecasting work to the analyst, we just need to trade with our eyes and hands, instead of imagining with our brains, will you close your eyes and cross the street because the prediction should not be coming? I think it's as pointless as predicting the market as if I'm trying to predict whether it will rain tomorrow or not, as long as I do it's raining, I'll bring an umbrella and not bring an umbrella if it doesn't rain. When you come to the stock market, as long as you do is to look at the number of people like a pickpocket, you can do it now, when there are many people, you will come out to get a vote, and when there are few people, you will not do it.

So we just need to see with the naked eye whether there are more people or fewer people now, the stock is not doing well because the greed is too great, the result of maximizing profits is to maximize losses, and always want to copy low and copy at the lowest point to escape from the top and escape at the highest. I hope there is a fairy to guide you. Wishes are good, but ...... In this impetuous society, everyone wants to take shortcuts, they all think about secrets, they all think about gossip, they all think about predictions, they all think about what good indicators can earn old in a book, and they just do it for a few years and want to punch Buffett and kick that person, don't think about this wish, it can be said that without a good father, you are destined to succeed and have to endure the pain that ordinary people can't bear.

So what we have to do is to give up the prediction and follow the market to do it, in fact, the stock is also like other industries have off-season and peak season, the stock in hand is the goods in our hands, will you do other business in the off-season when the warehouse is full of goods? Therefore, when we come to the stock market, we have to respect the reality that we are all ordinary people, not immortals, and we can only make money in the peak season, and let others do it in the off-season. Like the current market, it is the off-season, and the trading volume is sluggish, and now there is nothing to look for.

If you can't do it, you're greedy, you're going to lose, and if you do it, it's too little, so wait for the loss, and now it's just waiting, and when you wait for a lot, you will come out and pick up a small purse.

People who succeed in stock speculation are people who will lose rather than people who will win, everyone just need to look at the money you have lost in your account for so many years, what will be the result if you can lose half of the money? You can understand this truth. No matter how bad the person in the bull market is, he will win, win more and win less, the key is how much is left after a bear market in the past bull market?

So when we come to this market, the first thing to consider is to lose rather than win, as long as we will lose, we will not lose or win less, and we will come back naturally, as for winning more and winning less, it depends on your ability and creation. The process of success in stock speculation is the process of making more and more money in the bull market and losing less and less in the bear market as time increases. So when I do investing or doing stocks now, the first thing I think about is not how much I earn, but how much I want to lose if I make a mistake, and it doesn't matter how much I earn, the key is whether I want to lose, and if I lose, can I accept it? If the answer is no, I don't dare to make more money, so stock speculation is a loser's game, not a winner's game, and the one who will lose in the end of the laugh.

Maybe there are too many falls, the reason for the fear of falling, you can get up when you fall when you are young, but now there are old and young, you dare not and can't let yourself fall again, with the growth of age and the improvement of the social system, the probability of getting up will be smaller and smaller, the pain of falling in the past is your own business, and now it is your own business with the people around you. Maybe everyone thinks that my ideas are too pessimistic, too not like doing big things, it doesn't matter if everyone looks down on me, life is to be faced by yourself, not to be seen by others.

In fact, it is not difficult to earn 20% of this year's market, I said that I played a tie from January to April this year to make a small profit by playing new stocks, and since the listing of the April futures index, the market has fallen unilaterally since the market has made a short position to earn about 5%, and on July 20, it issued a buy signal on the right side, and on October 8, it also issued a buy signal on the right side, and the bold right side of the transaction earned about 25% is not much, I believe that this market is a low income, Then 11.12 big black line since the loss of about 8%, this year is about 20%, I believe that many people look down on this income, I believe that many people are far more than this income.

The key is to see how much risk you take to get this return, I feel that I have taken a very low risk to get this low return, I don't envy other people's high returns, because I can't bear the floating losses brought by high risks, I can't accept the feeling of riding a roller coaster, so I am content with this low return!

Many people will ask why not 2319 to buy the bottom? I admit that I don't have this level, and even if I have this level, I can't do this, because if I want to copy 2319, I may have died at 2700, 2600, 2500 points, and you will say that you didn't come up later, what are you afraid of? I'm just afraid, 2700 falls to 2319 and then comes up, will that feeling be the same as I will buy it after July 20th? Can you feel good on a roller coaster?

This vicious circle of losing money can only be broken by solving one's own demons.

---> less capital want to make more money----> greedy -----> trading on the left side (buying the bottom) ----> losing less -----> capital----> wanting to make more money----> more greedy-----> trading on the left side (buying the bottom) ----> losing more......

If you think that 20% per year is too little, then you have to do this business, you can only say that the profit margin of this business is too low for you, and you can't do it well even if you do it hard.

Years of experience have long made the character edgeless, everything is very light, happy will not be too happy, unhappy will not be too unhappy, will not care too much about others, do not need 24 lights to be fully lit, only need one light to be warm.

Speculating in stocks is not, when you make money, you feel very fast, and when you lose money, it is very painful, and the gap is bigger than all other industries, and that huge gap will be reflected in a short time. Earn more, earn less, lose more, lose less, and that amount is converted into a salary, and it can take a year or even many years to convert it into a salary, so don't tell me that any industry is painful, but this line is the most painful industry.

I want to make a lot of money---" "Stock ---" makes money, it's very happy--- "I lose all the money I make" -- "I want to make a lot of money."

So what we can do is try to control ourselves when making money, don't make yourself too happy, you have to think that the money may be temporarily put by the market, and a part of it will be returned to the market, so that there will naturally be no huge gap in losing money.

Just like the market on November 11th, when it was still immersed in a happy and peaceful bull market atmosphere, still thinking about how much to earn and how much to prepare for the New Year, the result of the market uproar came a 180-degree turn, if we can make money not too happy, do not go too much to imagine the calculated results, do a good job at any time to return a part of the market profits, maybe the market behind can not be so serious in the loss.

It's because everyone is so fantasical and unwilling to make bad plans and unwilling to accept reality. When you make money, it's like going to heaven, and when you lose money, it's like going to hell, and just now I feel like I'm going to hell in an instant, and the speed of time makes many people quite troubled.

So what we can do is to frame the upper and lower spaces in a very small range, that is, we won't make too much when we earn, and we won't lose too much when we lose, so that we won't go to heaven or hell, and naturally the psychological gap will not be too big, and we can naturally make the right behavior when we have a good mentality. Just gently get off the ground, the rest of the time is to walk slowly on the ground, when walking on the ground, you should be content with loneliness, don't envy how cool people are in heaven, think about how cool you are in heaven, and think that you don't have the risk of going to hell and naturally can't go to heaven.

Stock trading is just a job, a job close to the average market wage, and everyone's expectations of it are too great, giving it too many delusions. The time on the ground is much longer than the time off the ground in a year, so it is really difficult to be content with loneliness and loneliness, as if there is only 8-10 months of detachment from the ground this year, and the rest of the time is boring, but how can there be a harvest after the hard work from January to August?

Maintain a certain degree of flexibility and flexibility, do not be short or long, and be ready to flip and flip at any time. The biggest advantage of our individual investors is that they have flexible access and convenient access, so what advantages do we have over institutions? If we do long-term, we will lose this advantage, can our research ability compete with institutions? Therefore, it is better to continue to maintain this advantage, maintain enough flexibility and flexibility to the market, do not think qualitatively, see the wind and rudder, and grab if you can, but not withdraw.

It's normal for a bull stock to fly when it flies, and it can be exchanged for another stock when it flies, so why keep it for so many stocks.

Let me talk about the masters I have seen, in fact, the masters are not as miraculous as everyone says, the masters are just ordinary people, but in this market for a long time, practice makes perfect, I have seen the masters in the market for more than ten years, relatively familiar with the stock nature, know when to empty and when to fill the position, always hold stocks but constantly adjust the position, that is, his position is in motion all day long, can do flexible fund management. At the turning point of the market, it is handled quite well, and it can quickly do a lot of flips, and will not predict the market, because this minute is optimistic and may not be optimistic about the next minute. The education is not high, basically because there is no other way to be forced to stay in this market mixed kind, you think about the same work done every day for more than ten years, of course very familiar, of course, easy to control, but everyone does not have the perseverance to mix for so long, because too smart because there are many ways to change careers, the master is the one who can get up by constantly falling. As for the tricks that everyone says, I don't think there are any tricks, but people can do it when everyone can earn it, he can earn it, and when everyone loses, people can lose less, so I don't think to deify the master, the master is also made from ordinary people, or those old sayings take time to survive last year, and after a long time, you can also practice makes perfect and become a so-called master.

Masters are made by themselves, not by others. Stocks are like playing table tennis is very feeling, just like sometimes playing ball, why play like this, maybe the master can not fully explain, this is the feeling of people, I feel that this thing depends on long-term accumulation, just like the athletes of the national team also rely on practicing since childhood, and it takes more than ten years to feel the championship, I haven't heard that you can be a world champion in two days, so those who can become world champions are those children of poor families with poor family conditions, There is no other way out but to be an athlete, in fact, stocks also belong to a kind of competitive sports, and you also need to keep practicing and constantly find the feeling. Hehe, if people teach you to become a master twice, there will be no poor people in this world, I advise everyone to give up the idea of wanting to take a shortcut, not taking a shortcut is the best shortcut, read more books, practice more, think more, practice hard, and stay up.

The market has nothing to say now, continue to wait for the gathering of popularity, and waiting is also an operation.

I want to do it for a long time in this industry, I don't want to have any accidents to leave this market, I only have this job, I have no chance to change careers, I would rather earn less than take risks, I just want to earn some stable wages, and make more money or live like this, if I lose this job, I really don't know what to do. I will defend this prudence to the death, and what I need is to live in this industry and do it for a long time, not to make more money.

In this world, risk is always proportional to return, and if you don't want to take too much risk, of course, you don't envy the high returns of others. It's not about how much you get, it's about how much risk you take to get it. If I want to take the risk of making big money, I would rather be cautious and make small money, in fact, in the long run, who knows who is the big money.

Now the market is still a weak rebound, don't expect too much, take a shot and withdraw, to be not the one who makes the most money but the one that runs the fastest.

The money just in the bag has not been covered and I don't want to spit it out, stepping on the air is also part of the operation, don't be afraid to step on the air, the air is the norm, you have to get used to the air. Risk is always proportional to returns, and avoiding risks will naturally give up a lot of gains, and naturally they will often go short, and at the same time, they will also avoid eating big noodles. Always remember that the loss of 35 points of Huijin Technology was caused by greed, and the loss of 8 points of Huasu was caused by greed. If you are not greedy, you will step into the void, what should I do? Leaving a small position to gamble and selling in two or three times will solve this problem.