Chapter 37: The Great Filter

Life in the universe may be universal, and this article assumes for the time being that it holds. Unable to find an argument to refute, scientists decided to accept this law for the time being.

"But we can't yet conclude whether wisdom is universal, and there is too little information about that...... Professor Heigl said.

"However, we can make a guess based on the information we already have...... The key to this is the big filter theory. In Professor Heigl's narration, the logic begins to become clear.

According to the hierarchy of the Soviet scientist Kardashev, the civilization level of the universe can be divided into three categories: Class I civilization, Level II civilization and Level III civilization, and each level of advancement, the available energy is increased by 10^9 times.

"None of our new human civilizations, including the old human civilizations on Earth, have reached the level of Class I civilizations. According to the classification, our technology level is about 0.7, and we can get a glimpse of a corner of a Class I civilization. ”

"I think that at least a level I civilization, or a civilization between level I and level II, is qualified to soar into the universe. You shouldn't have any doubts about this, right? ”

By soaring through the universe, Heiger is actually going back and forth between stars, not as simple as launching satellites and landing on the moon. The distance between stars is really too far away, and it is generally measured in light years. α Centauri, the closest star to the Sun, is also 4.37 light-years.

That's light years! How much is a light-year? 9,460.8 billion kilometers!

This large distance is simply desperate, with the fastest speed of human beings so far, it will take 100,000 years to sail!

100,000 years is too long for humans to do.

Therefore, it is necessary to be at least between Class I and Class II civilizations, and the speed of the spacecraft must reach at least sub-light speed, and the sailing time must be shortened to ten or even a hundred years, so that it can be said that it is a small step in the universe......

Scientists whispered for a while, agreeing with the idea. According to this division, human beings are indeed the lowest level of civilization...... It doesn't sound comfortable, but it's true.

Only by reaching a level I civilization, or a civilization between level I and level II, can the spacecraft accelerate to the level of sub-light speed, compressing the flight time to tens or hundreds of years. Only such a civilization can be regarded as stepping into the starry sky and a real interstellar civilization!

Humans, not at all...... Even if people used the cheating normal, constant static mass of the Noah spacecraft, there was no way to make it reach sub-light speed. This is determined by the technology and the level of energy that can be utilized.

"Such interstellar civilizations should be very rare. At least we humans have not observed it in the past two hundred years of modern science. Nor have any extraterrestrial civilizations ever communicated with us. Heigl continued, "Do you disagree with this? ”

"Yes, it does...... Although one or two hundred years is nothing on the scale of the universe. However, human beings have never observed the activities of extraterrestrial civilizations, and it can also be indirectly said that interstellar civilizations may be scarce. Yu Yifeng thought about it and thought that Haiger's words were not too flawed

"Then the question is, since life is universal in the universe, but interstellar civilization is scarce, why is that?"

Even Yu Yifeng couldn't help but think about it, he didn't have a clear answer.

Assuming that life is universal in the universe, then why are interstellar civilizations so scarce? According to Haigl, there must be some obstacle that stands in the way of the evolution of almost all life in the universe!

"We call this kind of obstacle the Great Filter!"

Haigl said solemnly, "This big filter will filter out all unqualified lives, leaving only a very small number of lucky races. Only civilizations that have passed the Great Filter can grow into interstellar civilizations! ”

"This big filter, almost all life will encounter, yes, I think almost every life on every planet will encounter! It is like a wall of steel that blocks the progress of all life, and it is almost extremely difficult, if not impossible, to break through this wall! ”

"Only a small number of extremely lucky and extremely powerful civilizations can cross this large filter and slowly progress into interstellar civilizations. The probability is 1 in 10 million to 1 in 100 million......"

I think this is a hypothesis that is more likely. If the Great Filter Theory is true, it can be judged that it must have preceded interstellar civilizations! Haigl said categorically.

When it comes to this, the topic is already very heavy. But Yu Yifeng had to cheer up and continue to listen. Life is too common, because of the existence of a large filter, the vast majority of races have been sifted out, indeed...... There's some truth to that.

Scientists are really powerful, in fact, they don't know anything, and the information in their hands is even less pitiful, but they can deduce so many things by constantly guessing. This is wisdom, the wisdom that mankind is most proud of.

So, what is this big filter? Has humanity already crossed it, or is it still ahead, waiting for humanity?

These are two scenarios: excellent and bad...... If humanity has unwittingly crossed this big filter, then the future will be smooth sailing.

If the Great Filter is still ahead of humanity, then humanity will have to challenge the 1 in 10 million to 1 in 100 million success rate......

Thinking of this, Yu Yifeng's heart couldn't help beating wildly, even if it was a 1 in 10 million chance, it was a small surprise! Can human beings really leap across?

Even if a person is confident, if he challenges the 1 in 10 million chance, he will probably be pale and his heart will beat faster. With a pass rate of 1 in 10 million, does humanity really have such good luck?

As the leader of civilization, Yu Yifeng also has to care about whether this so-called "big filter" is real...... Isn't it the wild imagination of scientists, scaring themselves.

"Professor Heigl, I have some ideas." Dr. Rimbaud suddenly raised his hand. "I've heard a few about the big filter theory. Now, let me first talk about some possibilities of large filters, you can tell the difference. ”

"The first is the formation of life, which we used to think of as very difficult and can only be formed by extreme chance. Many of our previous experiments have not artificially created life, so we think this article has a reason to be a big filter.

But because of the emergence of life on Mars...... Life is likely to be universal, and this article has been the first to be rejected. I won't say more. ”

"Second, a breakthrough from prokaryotic life to eukaryotic life. This point, which took our planet more than a billion years to do, may be a very small accident...... This kind of small probability time has the possibility of becoming a large filter. ”

"Yes, Dr. Rimbaud, it took more than a billion years to complete the evolution of prokaryotic cells and eukaryotic cells after the birth of life on Earth, and it is impossible to determine whether this evolution is inevitable or an accident with extremely low probability. If the chance of producing eukaryotes is only 1 in 100 million, then this could also be a big filter. Heigl agreed.

"Moreover, the fact that the Martian virus has not yet broken through to eukaryotic life provides a modicum of evidence for this claim." Someone suddenly said below, "The Martian virus is not eukaryotic life, and it is really good news for us." ”

Hearing this, scientists have discussed that life on Mars is a carbonyl organism, which is indeed relatively inferior. No eukaryotic life has been found on Mars.

From this point of view, the probability of a breakthrough from prokaryotic life to eukaryotic life may be very small, and it is indeed qualified to become a big filter!