(Brain-burning warning: This chapter deals with real science, not nonsense.) ）

Wu Meng lay on the bed, looked at the low-level magic weapon held in mid-air, and said seriously:

"No. 1, I think that Wan He Gate, as long as it is not mentally retarded, will definitely not directly attack the Congxin Sect. Speaking of which, the Congxin faction and that Wanhe sect have clashed with each other many times, right? ”

Fang Wuwei frowned, then nodded in agreement, and said:

"Xiao Lian told me before that the Congxin faction and they have fought many times, so they are more familiar with each other. By the way, it is called Wantang Gate, not Wanhemen. ”

Wu Meng lay on the bed, squinted his eyes, glanced at Fang Wuwei, and then returned his attention to the magic weapon in his hand, and continued:

"Primitive No. 1, of course I knew it was called Wantangmen today, but I didn't want to say it. By the way, in the morning, I also learned about this news from Sister Shangguan Rou.

Continue with what I said earlier.

Since the Congxin faction and the Sugar Gate are familiar with each other, the Sugar Gate must know most of the fortifications set up by the Sugar Gate. Therefore, that Sugar Gate will definitely try his best to avoid those fortifications, and then invade the Congxin Sect.

Now, let's say I'm the one who played Sugar Gate to make an invasion plan, Primitives One, and guess when I'd attack? ”

Fang Wuwei was stunned: "When?" ”

Wu Meng put the teapot-like magic weapon in his hand on the side of the bed, and then sat on the bed with force, facing Xiang Fang Wu Wei and said seriously:

"If it were me, then I would attack the Congxin faction in the middle of the night today. To be exact, I have an 89% probability of attacking the Congxin faction tonight. ”

Fang Wuwei was shocked in his heart, although he didn't believe Wu Meng's words very much, but when he heard Wu Meng say this, he had an ominous premonition that slowly spread from the bottom of his heart.

"For ...... Why tonight? Whereas...... And how did you get that 89% probability?! ”

Wu Meng sat on the bed with bare feet, her originally lovely face, but now she showed a serious expression, and said extremely seriously:

"Primitives One, you listen to me carefully.

In the transition between the 21st and 25th centuries, there was a brief period when the world's science was dominated by mathematicians.

At that time, a mathematician came up with a formula derived from the Poisson distribution to solve the problem of the probability of crime.

(A Poisson distribution is a descriptive formula commonly used in statistics and probability.) It is suitable for describing the number of occurrences of random events per unit of time or space. For example, the number of machine failures, the number of natural disasters, and so on. ）

Based on historical criminal records, this formula can be used to efficiently calculate the probability that a crime will occur in a certain area. ”

Fang Wuwei looked at Wu Meng with a blank expression, and interjected:

"Impossible, right?! Then there will be no crime in the future? ”

Wu Meng didn't shake his head or nod, but his face showed admiration inexplicably, which should be his sincere respect for the mathematician.

Fang Wuwei had never seen Wu Meng with such admiration since he met Wu Meng, and he couldn't help but be stunned, thinking to himself if what Wu Meng said was true?

Wu Meng continued:

"First, the main object of Poisson distribution is true random events, that is, laws that are completely impossible for humans to grasp, such as the flipping of a coin in a completely ideal environment, or the laws of earthquake occurrence in contemporary times.

Therefore, before the emergence of that mathematician, no one ever thought of using Poisson distribution to solve practical problems.

However, people don't notice that in reality, neither the crime nor the earthquake is a completely independent true random event.

For example, after the first earthquake, there may be multiple aftershocks. This aftershock can also be called an earthquake, but it is not a random thing, we all know that, right? ”

Fang Wuwei nodded blankly, although it was very strange why Wu Meng suddenly talked about mathematics, but he felt that what Wu Meng said must be related to the Wantang Sect's attack on the Congxin Sect, so he didn't interrupt Wu Meng.

Wu Meng continued:

"So is the crime really a random event? Now, if a thief succeeds in stealing a family in a planned theft, will that family be stolen again?

The answer is quite possibly.

Because the thief has stepped on the spot countless times, he is extremely familiar with that location. If they were to commit another theft next time, they would definitely choose that location. Unless, that place is monitored by the police 24 hours a day, or the house has been stolen.

But even if that family has been stolen. Is that place safe? The answer is that it's still not safe.

As mentioned earlier, the thief is very familiar with the location, so the neighbors of that family are also extremely vulnerable to theft, and the probability of the neighbor being stolen is a power increase.

In other words, crime is not a completely independent random event, but a non-completely independent random event that is connected. ”

"Now let's assume that playing the sugar gate and attacking the Congxin faction is a crime. Then based on the number and time of playing Sugar Gate Attack before, we can get an average.

In the end, the average result I came up with was that playing the Tang Sect attacked the Congxin Sect twice a month, or attacked the Congxin Sect once in seventeen days, or attacked the Congxin Sect 0.04 times in one day.

But what's very interesting is that after playing Sugar Gate to attack the Congxin faction for the first time, the next few attacks on the Congxin faction will be closer. Then it suddenly faded away, perhaps to recuperate. In short, it was a long time before a new attack was launched.

In this case, it perfectly fits the Poisson deformation formula for predicting crime.

The cave man surnamed Yun said that he did not commit a 'criminal act' for two months after playing the sugar gate. So I substituted the data I collected from Sister Shangguan Rou before, combined with the newly obtained data, that is, the attack of the Mountain Boar Cave Man, into the formula.

λ=μ+k*Σwe^[-w（t-t?）]

λ is the crime probability, μ is the basic value of randomness (the average value is calculated from historical data), k is the rate of change (for example, after analyzing multiple earthquakes, the probability of each aftershock occurs), Σ is the sum value solved by the following formula, we^[-w(t-t?)] is the agitation change of the expected variance in the Poisson distribution (unscientific popular analogy, the number and time of aftershocks change after each earthquake), and -w(t-t?) different durations. ”

"In the end, I came up with an 89% probability, and the time is from today to the day after tomorrow. But if playing Sugar Gate is not mentally retarded, they will definitely attack the Congxin faction after we finish the Daqing!

After all, they even knew that there was a little girl in the Congxin faction, so how could they not know when the Congxin faction was most relaxed? ”

Fang Wuwei listened to Wu Meng's words with a confused face, and only understood one sentence, there is an 89% probability that the Congxin Sect will be attacked by the Wantang Sect tonight......

"But...... But this world is not the earth, so maybe that formula doesn't work? Right...... Right? ”

Fang Wuwei still didn't want to believe what he had heard, and stammered and asked. If what Wu Meng said is true, wouldn't there be no time to prepare, and a real battle would be ushered in?

Wu Meng sat on the bed expressionlessly, bent down silently, put on small anti-static black leather shoes, then raised his head to look at Fang Wuwei, and said seriously:

"In this world, one plus one is still equal to two. The only thing that is different is the natural rules of physics.

Primitive One, please remember, I am a true genius scientist, so I believe in science. ”

As soon as Wu Meng's words fell, in the distant heartfield, suddenly there was a shouting in the sky! Even around the small building where Fang Wuwei and his party were, there were bursts of explosion-like sounds!

Fang Wuwei and Zheng Koumao in the room changed their expressions, stood up in a hurry, and looked out the window in a panic.

Wu Meng jumped down from the bed gently, dexterously like a rabbit, stood behind Fang Wuwei, and whispered:

"Primitives One...... This time I'm here to help you ...... "...... [Split Split]......

Author's Note: Forehead...... What Wu Meng said is the latest niche mathematics project, which is indeed being studied abroad, and it has really helped criminal cases and reduced the incidence of cases.

So, I want to state an interesting thing: because this is fiction, there must be suspense, not reality. Therefore, this mathematical formula will basically not appear again, otherwise the novel would not have to be written.

(Interesting: Novels are usually because it's fiction, not reality.) So it is impossible to appear in reality, don't substitute what is in fiction into reality. Now I have to do the opposite, not to substitute real things into fiction. It's a sad thing, laughs. ）

By the way, I changed this chapter a lot of times and found a lot of information. So I'll only be able to update one chapter tomorrow, sorry, but let me get a lazy cancer.