"When did you get the results?" Afterwards, Mo **** Su Qingji. Pen, fun, and www.biquge.info

"It doesn't help to calculate the results, but it just preliminarily establishes a direction waiting to be falsified, and this hypothesis is the closest to the objective law that we have found so far."

"What's your theory?"

"Probability, our theory is based on probability. For example, the sudden reversal of wind direction such as wind shear is an obvious small local atmospheric phenomenon, and its formation is very accidental and often unpredictable. Even if a microscopic air mass environment is artificially created, it is still uncontrollable whether it will eventually evolve into wind shear. ”

"Similarly, the atmospheric environment of our earth is full of various occasional probabilistic events, and in the case of similar macro conditions, the actual meteorological conditions are completely different from year to year, and there are a large number of accidental events that affect each other, and the accumulation of positive feedback and negative feedback is accumulated."

"The macroscopic environment influences the general trend of atmospheric movements, but there are a lot of disturbances and turbulences in the details and localizations. For example, the heat provided by the sun to the earth is stable all year round, and correspondingly, the earth's atmospheric circulation is basically stable all year round. ”

"Under this general trend, the specific implementation of each year, the implementation of each region, there will be huge differences in meteorological conditions, often from year to year weather conditions are completely different."

"Human society is similar in that the overall historical development trend of human society can be predicted, and the macro influencing factors are also relatively easy to observe. For example, in the early days of human history, the most critical factors affecting the development of history were population and food, which are easily observable macro factors. ”

"The history of human beings around the development of population and food is also full of a large number of contingencies, which are mixed together, influence and interfere with each other, and finally form a huge ocean of probability that exists in human society, in this ocean, local whirlpools and tides are formed. And these local phenomena have formed a situation similar to Yuan Yin's possession of the decaying god. ”

"There's a chaos theory, and a complex theory of interference superposition, to explain the many perturbations and contingencies at the microscopic level. Based on this assumption, we have built a preliminary mathematical model to simulate the operation of this probabilistic ocean. ”

"How effective is your algorithm?"

"It's still very low, and we now use this algorithm to predict the negative events that Yuan Yin's next move will encounter, and the prediction accuracy is only about 3% at most."

"So low!" Mo Hui was taken aback, with such a low accuracy rate, it can no longer be said to be a prediction, and any random guess is estimated to be higher than this.

"It's very low, but the good thing is that we've been able to predict it, and that's the key."

"With such a low accuracy rate, is there something wrong with the algorithm?"

"It's not necessarily an algorithmic problem, but after analysis, we found that the main problem may be that the number of computational samples is too low."

"What do you mean by this sample calculation?"

"Incident point! A unit of things that can interact with the surrounding environment, for example, a person will look at his mobile phone when he walks, and a message will change his mind when the mobile phone comes, and this mobile phone is an incident point; In the same way, if a car is driving on the road, and its driving state affects the surrounding vehicles at all times, then it is also an incident point; If a person distributes leaflets on the street, he will inevitably have an impact on passers-by, then he is a point of incident; If a teacher drags on a class and will definitely change the students' schedule, then he is an incident point. ”

"What are the approximate incidents that you now include in the algorithm to predict Yuan Yin?"

"At present, more than 30,000 incident points have been selected around Yuan Yin, which is far from enough, but we don't have enough strength to expand more incident points."

"Oh!" Mo Hui finally understood, "No wonder you talked to Mary like that, it turned out that you wanted to use their resources to advance research." ”

"Yes, the density of monitoring of our team's incident points is not enough now, if we want to cover all the incident points around a person, we estimate that it should reach at least one million."

"So much?" Mo Hui was taken aback, this data is big enough, "But I don't think it's possible to have so many incidents in a person's life, right?" ”

"There are many factors that affect a person, for example, when a person is in motion, anything around the path can affect him. For example, a sexy beauty, a crowd gathered, and a novel billboard may attract his attention and cause certain changes in his thinking. ”

"And this is only the event points that can have a direct impact on the target, these are the first-degree events, and there are a large number of second-degree events that affect the first-degree events, and so on, there will be more incidents to consider."

"And in the process of mutual influence, there is not only mutual dissipation, but also mutual superposition, and all distance targets are the first degree of incident, and it cannot simply determine the size of its impact on the target."

"For example, the famous one, an iron nail broke a horseshoe, a horseshoe fell a horse, a horse fell a knight, a knight lost a battle, a battle lost a war, a war lost a kingdom."

"It's the butterfly effect amplified by the standard influence, and around the target, this butterfly effect is present at all times, and maybe this chain of cause and effect has been able to link to a cat on the far side of the earth."

"What we have to do now is to include as many incidents as we can, and as we get more and more incidents, and the more detailed the monitoring of the status of the incidents, the higher the probability of our predictions."

Mo Hui understood this time, "You guys are monitoring all the things and controlling all the variables. ”

"Almost, if we can perfectly monitor all the incidents around Yuan Yin, then we should be able to predict what happened to Yuan Yin more perfectly, and we should be able to clearly observe every bad luck that happened to Yuan Yin, and the whole process of its brewing and development."

"I feel like your algorithm is more like an observer or deriver of fate."

"You're right, if this algorithm is carried out to the extreme, it should indeed be able to deduce the direction of fate."

"This name is good, if your algorithm is formed in the future, it will be called derivation, derivation 1.0."