Chapter 153: Probability
As soon as I said this, a sneering smile flashed at the corner of the skeleton man's mouth, and he looked me up and down and said, "Okay, what are you betting on?" ”
This...... That's when I realized that I was penniless now. If you go to Rui Wei and them to get the money now, in case the Blood Rock Furnace falls into the hands of someone else, it will be even more difficult to find, and you must win it back immediately!
With such a determination, I reached out and took out the quenching moon in my sleeve, slapped it on the table, and said, "I'll take this bet!" ”
The skeleton man glanced at Quenyue and snorted, "How much can such a broken dagger be worth?" ”
As soon as I heard it, this was obviously trying to lower the price, this quenching moon was given to me by Wang Shaoting, and I heard him say that it was originally a tribute from the southwestern vassal country, and later the emperor gave it to his grandfather. Just for this background, it's worth at least ten taels of gold!
Without waiting for me to speak, a gambler next to me seemed to have a little knowledge, picked up the quenching moon and looked at it, and sighed: "It's really a good thing, why don't I give a tael of gold, you can sell it to me!" ”
Of course, the skeleton man was not really illiterate, so he snatched the quenching moon over, glared at the man and said, "Now the two of us are talking about business, what are you going to do!" Then he turned to me again, and put on a reluctant expression, and said, "Well, how about I do you a favor and give you ten taels of silver in exchange for this?" ”
In this era, there is no fixed proportion for the conversion of gold and silver, and it is all based on the market conditions and habits of each place. A tael of gold can be exchanged for a few taels to twenty taels of silver, and his bid is obviously mixed with water. But instead of rushing to bargain, I asked him, "If I want to get those two things back, how much do I have to win?" ”
He touched his chin and calculated in his heart for a long time before he said, "At least one hundred taels." ”
The idlers around him who participated in the gambling had already been attracted by our conversation, and when they heard his offer, they exploded with a bang, and I clearly heard someone saying: "This guy, the things that you get by folding one tael are worth one hundred taels for exchanging them, which is really enough!" ”
Or? I couldn't help but look at the old lady sitting there staring at me coldly, surprised and speechless. This is really a free thing, it's not a play, it's so cheap to bet it out!
"Okay!" I readily agreed, but immediately added, "But now you remember that I have fourteen taels of silver, and if I can win a hundred taels, my dagger will be returned to me in addition to those two things!" ”
When he heard this, he was a little surprised, he didn't expect that I, a hairy boy who didn't seem to match the gambling game at all, would be so crazy as soon as he spoke. When the people around me heard that I was so heroic, they all applauded, and encouraged the skeleton man to quickly agree.
This is definitely a once-in-a-lifetime good business for the skeleton man, but he still thought about it for a long time before he agreed slowly.
So, I also stood in the middle of this group of gamblers, but I was not in a hurry to place a bet, but observed the game.
After watching it for a while, I understood that this is a very traditional way of playing, betting on the size, a total of three dice, each is 1-6 points, and when the sum is 11-17 points, it is big, and a 4-10 point is small. There is a small probability event, that is, the three dice have the same number, called the leopard, and the dealer takes all, that is, all the bets on the round belong to the banker.
Compared with modern times, the only difference is that the design of the dice is actually made of metal, and the shape is not a cube, but has more faces, much like the multi-faceted hydrangea used in the lion dance, some of the faces are written with numbers, and some seem to be painted with patterns, or written words or something, which looks more artistic.
But no matter what the dice are designed into, they can't change the magic of the gambling game, just look at these people around me, those who win still want to win, and those who lose want to turn over, one by one staring at the dealer with their eyes, not losing a fine light and can't bear to leave, as if entering a state of madness.
It's a pity that this game is nothing more than a psychological trap in the end, and it has nothing to do with fate, providence, luck and anything like that!
If you want to ask me how I know this, I also want to thank Uncle Lin who was the janitor in the dormitory when I was in secondary school. This man is usually a bit chattering, he has a bad temper and loves to train people, and his brothers don't like him very much, but a few times I was too idle to talk to him, and found that he knew a lot of things.
Once, when I casually asked him where he was getting his income from, his eyes lit up, and he said mysteriously with the smell of wine: "I tell you that you are not allowed to tell anyone, I relied on gambling at that time." ”
"Bet?" I think it's a little surprising, in the eyes of the little people, gambling ruins people abound, and I have never seen anyone who can live around by gambling money to support themselves.
"What's the gamble, in your words? That's a probability! But the key to seeing through the gamble is not the probability itself, but the odds! He said, waving his hands.
This is a fairly new statement, and I quickly asked him what he was talking about.
"No matter what kind of gambling game, whether it is a big or small bet, odd or even, Zhuang Xian, or a specific number, the emergence of any form can calculate a probability. Take the size of the bet as an example, the probability of appearing big or small is the same, both are ......"
“50%。” I interjected.
"Wrong! There is also the leopard form, the dealer takes all the situation, although its probability is very low, but always to account for a ratio, each play is different, we assume that the probability of its appearance is 3%, then that is, the probability of the size of the appearance is to give 1.5 points to the leopard, the original 50% became 48.5%. ”
I nodded, as if I understood.
He smiled and expressed his satisfaction, and then continued: "For those who bet, if you give out a dollar, you will either win a dollar or lose this dollar, sometimes win and sometimes lose, in the long run, if you want to make money, you must win more than 50% of the time." But in fact, the game only gives you a 48.5% chance of winning, and the difference, that 1.5 pips, is the casino's profit. The odds of one to one are set by them, how to set them? It's based on the 48.5% probability, and if they set 1.2 to 1, you'll earn, understand? It's all designed on purpose, and you'll never really be able to get it! Many people say that casinos make money by making money, and I tell you, there is no need at all, relying on probability it has made a steady profit! ”
Although I have known for a long time that gambling is just a game of chance, it is indeed the first time that someone has analyzed it so thoroughly! I immediately became interested and asked, "So how did you win?" ”
At the mention of his glorious history, a layer of light appeared on his flushed face, and he smiled proudly: "You really want to know? (To be continued.) )