Seeing such a scene, the big man hurriedly said to everyone: "Everyone, pay attention, immediately move forward against the rock wall!" The snow and ice above our heads could fall at any time, so be careful! ”

Hearing the big man's reminder, several of us immediately clinged to the rock wall. For the sake of safety, no one acted rashly.

Even so, there was a little snow and ice on our bodies. Because of the loud shouting of the big man in a hurry just now, there was another burst of ice and snow falling overhead. The snow and ice were sprinkled, but it was not lethal.

However, the spiky ice pick was not the case. As long as a person is hit or stabbed by it, it is not so simple. It is estimated that even if you don't die, you will have to be disabled for life.

Several of us are very worried about whether the big man's voice just now will cause a "butterfly effect"? The so-called "butterfly effect" is more figuratively said: a butterfly flapped its wings and triggered a tsunami in India.

In a dynamical system, small changes in the initial conditions can lead to a huge long-term ripple effect of the whole system. Strictly speaking, this is a chaotic phenomenon.

There are fixed numbers and variables in the development of any thing, and the development trajectory of things in the process of development has laws to follow. At the same time, there are also unpredictable "variables". It is often counterproductive, and a small change can affect the development of things, indicating that the development of things is complex.

American meteorologist Edward Edward. Lorenz analyzed this effect in 1963 in a paper submitted to the New York Academy of Sciences.

"One meteorologist mentioned that if this theory proves correct, a seagull flapping its wings would be enough to change the weather forever."

In later speeches and essays, he used the more poetic metaphor of a butterfly.

The most common description of this effect is a butterfly in the rainforest of the Amazon basin in South America. An occasional flap of the wings can cause a tornado in Texas two weeks later.

The reason for this is that the movement of the butterfly's wings causes changes in the air system around it and creates a weak air current. And the generation of weak air currents. It will cause corresponding changes in the surrounding air or other systems, which will cause a chain reaction, and eventually lead to great changes in other systems.

This phenomenon is what he calls "chaos science".

Of course, the "butterfly effect" is primarily a metaphor for "chaos". At the same time, it is also a real reaction to the butterfly effect. An inconspicuous small action can elicit a series of huge reactions.

The source of this sentence is that the meteorologist made a computer program. This can simulate climate change and is represented in an image. Eventually, he discovered, images were chaotic. And it looks like a butterfly with its wings outstretched.

Therefore, he vividly interpreted this figure in the form of "butterfly flapping its wings", hence the above statement.

Lorenz found that errors grow exponentially. In this case, a small error, as it goes on and accumulates, can have huge consequences.

Later, Lorenz raised the issue in a speech. He thinks. In the process of atmospheric motion, even if the various errors and uncertainties are small. It is also possible to accumulate the results in the process and amplify them step by step to form a huge atmospheric movement.

Therefore, it is impossible to accurately predict the weather over a long period of time.

From this conclusion Lorenz concluded that he had discovered a new phenomenon: the result of the development of things, which had an extremely sensitive dependence on the initial conditions. He then concluded that this was due to "extreme instability to the initial value". That is, "chaos", also known as the "butterfly effect".

The butterfly effect is often used in complex systems such as weather, stock markets, etc., which are difficult to predict at a certain time. If the difference grows, the gap will be very destructive.

Why do the weather or the stock market have crashes and unpredictable natural disasters? Is this because of some unusual factor? It's really hard to say.

The butterfly effect is used in sociology to illustrate: a small mechanism, if not guided and adjusted in time, may bring great danger to society, jokingly called "tornado" or "storm"; A tiny mechanism, with the right guidance, can be a sensation, or "revolutionary", after a period of effort.

I like the word "revolution" very much. Because that's a transformation, a qualitative change.

The butterfly effect, which also has a psychological application, refers to a very small thing that seems unrelated on the surface and can make a huge difference.

This effect shows that the result of the development of things is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions. A very small deviation in the initial conditions can cause a large difference in the results.

When a person is exposed to a small psychological stimulus when he is a child, this stimulus will be amplified when he grows up, which is wonderfully explained in the movie "Butterfly Effect".

At first, I didn't understand the movie. However, it was only later that I figured out what this movie was trying to express.

The "butterfly effect" is chaotic at the beginning, produced in inaccuracy or imprecision, so anything can happen.

At the same time, it is a concept in the theory of chaos, a generalization of a phenomenon. It is a dependent phenomenon on the sensitivity of the initial condition: small differences at the input end can be quickly amplified to the output side.

The butterfly effect abounds in economic life, and the more famous one is the "mad cow disease incident" in the United States:

In 2003, a suspected case of mad cow disease was discovered in the United States, which immediately brought a very devastating hurricane to the newly recovered American economy.

It was the unlucky "mad cow" who flapped the "butterfly wings". First of all, the US beef industry, which has a total output of $175 billion, and 1.4 million jobs, will be affected.

The U.S. corn and soybean industries, which are the main sources of feed for the cattle industry, have also been affected, and their futures prices have shown a downward trend. But in the end, it was the decline in American consumer confidence in beef products that contributed to the biggest damage from the BSE hurricane.

In today's globalized world, this panic has not only caused a depression in the United States, but has even spread to the world. At least 11 countries have announced emergency bans on U.S. beef imports, and even residents in places as far ashore as Guangdong, China, have shunned Western-style dining.

This is reminiscent of the outbreak of avian flu some time ago. Bird flu, which was first detected in a few countries, quickly spread around the world. Even in regions or countries where avian influenza has not been detected, people talk about chicken discoloration.

The financial crisis in Asia in 1998 and the financial turmoil in the stock market in the United States were in fact the "butterfly effect" in economic operation.

The "El Niño" phenomenon that occurred in the Pacific Ocean in 1998 is the "butterfly effect" caused by atmospheric movements.

The "butterfly effect" is a manifestation of chaotic motion, and it is also an accumulation and explosion of factors.

When we go on to examine the phenomena of life, they are neither fully cyclical nor purely random. They both "lock the frequency" to one side of nature's cyclical processes (seasons, day and night, etc.), while maintaining an intrinsically "autonomous" nature.

The "butterfly effect", in chaos theory, is a concept. It is a dependent-on phenomenon: a small difference in the input can quickly be magnified to an overwhelming difference in the output.

It's like a butterfly flapping its wings in Beijing today, which could trigger a series of events in the atmosphere, leading to a storm in New York one month.

It's like a tiny drop of water if it rolls down a snowy slope. As the diameter of the snowball grows, so does the amount of snow.

Lorenz fed two initial conditions, which differed by only 0.0001, into a mathematical equation, and the resulting two curves soon diverged from each other.

Scientists define chaos as seemingly random irregular movements that occur in a deterministic system. A system described by a deterministic theory behaves as uncertain—unrepeatable, unpredictable, and chaotic.

Further studies show that chaos is an inherent characteristic of nonlinear dynamical systems, and it is a phenomenon that generally exists in nonlinear systems.

Newton's deterministic theory can perfectly deal with most linear systems, and linear systems are mostly simplified from nonlinear systems.

As a result, chaos is ubiquitous in real life and in practical engineering-technical problems.

Since Lorenz first discovered the phenomenon of chaos, the study of chaos has always been the concern of scientists, sociologists and humanists. To study chaos is to discover order in disorder.

But in today's world, there is still too much to be predicted. The topic of "chaos" will also become a problem for all mankind.

A small butterfly flapping its wings over a certain place disturbs the air, and after a long time it may lead to a storm in a distant place. This is a metaphor for long-term, large-scale weather forecasting, which is often unpredictable due to a small factor.

Small deviations are difficult to avoid, making long-term weather forecasts unpredictable or inaccurate.

Long-term large-scale weather forecasting is the observation, calculation, analysis and judgment of the complex system of the earth's atmosphere. It is affected and restricted by many factors that change anytime and anywhere in the earth's atmosphere, and it is difficult to predict its comprehensive effect accurately, and the butterfly effect is inevitable.

The object of our human research also involves other complex systems, and many factors are intertwined and intricately intertwined, and the "corresponding butterfly effect" is inevitable.

Today's "butterfly effect", or "butterfly effect" in general, is no longer limited to the original Lorentz butterfly effect, only for weather forecasting. Rather, it is synonymous or synonymous with the extreme sensitivity of a qiē complex system to initial values. (To be continued......)