Chapter 934: A Return of $20 Billion
The operation here is non-stop 24 hours a day, so after watching it for a while, Yang Jing returned to his room satisfied, and Henry, David, and Cesar also followed.
Yang Jing personally poured a glass of champagne for everyone, and then picked up the wine glass and said with a smile: "Come, toast to our glory!"
"Cheers to our brilliance!" said the three men in unison, raising their glasses.
The result of this investment or speculation is very brilliant, after the three major markets were launched, the three major investment institutions under the name of the Dragon Fund have made huge profits in these three markets.
In terms of international gold and international crude oil futures alone, the profit of the Dragon Fund has exceeded the market value of a General Electric!
Although the global financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis has not yet entered a high tide, the KY investment fund, which is disguised by international funds, has already made a profit of more than $200 billion just from shorting the US subprime mortgage and the US stock market!
Their speculative action is absolutely brilliant.
After taking a sip of his wine, Henry smiled and said, "It's a pity that the outside world is amazed at John Paulson's profits, and they never knew that John Paulson's Paulson Fund was only a fraction of what we did." ”
Cesar also laughed, "Don't forget, we're an international traveler. ”
One sentence amused everyone at the scene, and even David, who usually doesn't smile, laughed heartily.
Not to mention the profits of the international gold and international crude oil futures markets, just this short of the US subprime mortgage and the short of the US stock market made the profits of the KY investment fund exceed the US stock market crash in 1987, and this is only the beginning.
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has begun to detonate the global financial market, and a financial crisis that has swept the world is inevitably about to erupt, which is the battlefield for KY Investment Fund and Pacific Capital to obtain greater profits in the next stage.
"You've got that little guys doing a great job, and we've got a John Paulson in front of us to get the attention of the outside world, so we're going to be safer this time. Yang Jing said with a smile.
It's not that Yang Jing said this nonsense, but it is actually an extremely dangerous thing for the United States to make a fortune. If it weren't for the KY Investment Fund's "initiative" to come out and buy back a large number of shares, maybe Henry would have been invited by the U.S. government for tea.
The same is true of the subprime mortgage crisis, but compared with the stock market crash 20 years ago, the financial regulation in the United States has become looser at this time, and it coincides with the later generation of John Paulson, who is known as the "empty god", in front of him, so this time the KY investment fund is even more comfortable in the subprime mortgage crisis.
From the mid-to-late 90s of the last century to the first decade of the new century, there were two "Paulsons" on Wall Street who were well-known, one was Henry Paulson, the former chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs and served as the US Treasury Secretary in 2006, and the other was John Paulson, who made a fortune by shorting subprime mortgages in the subprime mortgage crisis and was known as the "empty god" by later generations.
Before the subprime mortgage crisis, John Paulson was not well-known on Wall Street until he met his old friend Paul Pellegrini in 2004, two guys with the same smell saw the huge bubble in the American real estate market, and then decisively shorted the subprime mortgage, and finally he put down a heavy bet of $25 billion in the American real estate market to short the American subprime mortgage, and then in more than a year, the $25 billion became $45 billion, and the direct profit was as high as $20 billion.
John Paulson was also hailed as the "Empty God" because of this shorting.
In fact, John Paulson's success would not have been possible without Paul Pellegrini.
Paolo Pellegrini was born in Italy and moved to Wall Street in the 80s, where he worked as a mid-stream investor at Lazard Brothers, where he tried his hand at venture capital. It was at that time that he met John Paulson, who had been working at Bear Stearns.
At that time, the two of them could only be regarded as two small shrimps on Wall Street.
Unlike John Paulson, Pellegrini worked as a broker after leaving the Zalad brothers, but all of them did not go well, and both of his marriages failed.
Even before he met John Paulson again in 2004, he was unemployed.
However, after many years of experience in the workplace, Pellegrini has developed outstanding financial analysis skills, which has created his unique investment thinking, he is no longer subject to the rules and regulations of the Wall Street financial system, and no longer relies entirely on credit ratings and rating agency ratings, but collects a large amount of financial information for his own comprehensive analysis, and uses it as the basis for investment judgment.
And when the two men met again, John Paulson's life was not very comfortable.
After four years at Bear Stearns, Paulson decided to transition from investment banking to fund management and began his fund management career as a partner at Grus Partners. In 1994, he saw the momentum of hedge funds and shared an office with several other small hedge funds to create Paulson Hedge Fund, which specializes in M&A arbitrage and event-driven investing.
Especially at the beginning of the new century, Paulson saw the huge bubble in the Internet and decisively began to short the Internet, which made his Paulson fund profit of more than 5% per year in the first two years of the new century, and the size of his fund increased to $600 million.
The Paulson Fund's performance in the dot-com bubble burst attracted many investors, and by 2005, the Paulson Fund had grown to $4 billion.
Even though the size of the fund has increased nearly sevenfold, Paulson still finds it uncomfortable. Why? Quite simply, because Paulson felt a little aimless.
This is the worst part of the hedge fund, because he is in charge of a hedge fund with a scale of $4 billion, but he does not know the direction of investment, which will inevitably cause dissatisfaction among investors after a long time.
At this time, the U.S. economy was red, especially the real estate market, which was very hot, but Paulson was not interested in the U.S. real estate market. He doesn't wade through the muddy waters of mortgage loans, financial derivatives and real estate, and he stays out of most of the real estate boom, so does he have any goals?
So, when he met Pellegrini, Paulson's life was not comfortable.
But at this time, he met Pellegrini, an old friend of his who showed him the way.
Although Pellegrini is in the state of his career, his sense of smell has always been very acute. Especially the boom in the U.S. real estate market in the past two years has made him smell something unusual.
As a result, Pellegrini began to study the U.S. real estate market. He has studied interest rates over decades and found that they have had little impact on the housing market. This means that, despite all the whitewashing of bullish claims, the Fed's interest rate cuts are not at all a reason for the recent surge in home prices. But after reading academics, government literature and data, Pellegrini was frustrated: he couldn't quantify the extent to which house prices were worth the money, and he didn't know when the bubble began. He couldn't even prove that the price increase was different from the past.
To draw new conclusions, Pellegrini added a "trend curve" to the housing market data, which clearly shows the extent of recent price increases in the housing market. This time, Pellegrini took a step back and started looking at a longer period of history, finding property data for each year after 1975
And then suddenly, the answer was clear: Between 1975 and 2000, home prices in the United States grew by only 1.4 percent annually after adjusting for inflation. But in the six years from 2000 to 2005, U.S. home prices soared by more than 7% per year!
In other words, U.S. home prices need to shrink by 40% to match the historical trend!
The extent of this rise in house prices is unprecedented, and Pellegrini has also found that every time house prices fall in history, they fall below the trend line, which means that if house prices do fall at this point, it will really plummet.
When Manuel Pellegrini shared the results of his analysis with Paulson, Paulson, who was naturally stupid and bold, immediately realized that this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
At the beginning of 2006, there was a general belief that house prices would never fall across the United States, mortgage experts were constantly preaching that the housing market and mortgage market would continue to flourish, and good news was frequently reported in the media. The vast majority of Wall Street's biggest names are on the same page. Credit rating agencies have also assigned AAA ratings to Wall Street's financial products.
"Experts are blinded by the boom in the real estate market. After receiving Pellegrini's analysis, John Paulson decisively discarded the rating agencies' ratings and personally led his team of 45 people to track thousands of mortgages and analyze the details of the personal loans he could get.
As he progressed, Paulson became more convinced that investors were significantly underestimating the risks in the mortgage market, and that it was becoming increasingly difficult for creditors to recover their loans.
Before the subprime mortgage crisis, the relationship between CDOs and CDSs in the U.S. housing market was such that the higher the risk of the CDO, the higher the value of the CDS guaranteed for it. But during the property boom, the vast majority of people thought that there was not much risk associated with CDOs, so the price of CDS was very low.
So Paulson decisively invested $150 million in July 2006 to establish the first fund to short the CDO, and began to build a large number of positions.
At the same time, he shorted dangerous CDOs while buying cheap ones.
Paulson's team began rummaging through the market for low-quality CDOs, dangerous ones, and his goal was not the healthiest, most mature, but the kind of credentials that no one could afford to turn to. They then buy CDS insurance contracts for these CDO shares.
"Man, do you want the CDO of New Century Finance?"
"Nonsense, such a garbage oh no, of course I want such a superb CDO, I want as much as I want!"
"What about scammer loans and interest-only loans?"
"Fake, do you need to talk about this? Bring it to Lao Tzu, as many as you want!"
"Dude, do you want a CDO for mortgages in the overheated housing markets in California and Nevada?"
"Yo, do you have a lot there? I want them all."
In this way, Paulson scoured the red-hot real estate market for high-risk CDOs and cheap CDS, and his actions even sparked a chorus of ridicule on Wall Street.
Especially in the months that followed, the U.S. housing market continued to boom and showed no signs of malaise, so Paulson's fund continued to lose money — and he continued to pour more than a billion dollars.
Some investors hurriedly asked him several times if he should stop the loss. He flatly refused: "No, I'm going to raise." ”
Paulson did what he said he would, and he even set up a second fund to short the CDO and continued to invest more.
Paulson's approach drew much ridicule and ridicule at the time, but he persisted in doing so, with the air of a drunken crowd that was heard by thousands of people.
But his desperate approach did not disappoint him, even when he lost more than a billion dollars between July 2006 and the end of 2006.
In the end, his persistence brought him a huge fortune!
The subprime mortgage crisis finally broke out, and Paulson, who had prepared a large number of short positions in advance, finally got the huge return he deserved in this subprime mortgage crisis - $20 billion!