To Montero's question, Yu Ming replied: "Chairman Meng, I am a subjectivist, and I think there must be something wrong with things that are illogical. "Yu Ming is not interested in physical evidence.

"In fact, Vice Chairman John's case has always been a stain on our investigators." Montero ignored Chairman Montero's words and said, "After I became an investigator, I used to read the relevant information very carefully, but I didn't find anything wrong. These are the materials. Montero turned the computer to Yu Ming.

Yu Ming looked at the information, John was very capable, and immediately determined that the oil paintings were flowing to Germany and contacted the German investigators. The oil painting was delivered to the door of a room in the countryside, and the two took turns to monitor for three days, but no one was found to take the painting, so they had to give up investigating the person behind the scenes and get the oil painting back.

Yu Ming said: "This is not logical. ”

"How?"

"Since the courier arrived, of course, it was the first time to receive the oil painting, and Weishenme didn't move for three days? I think the only reason is that the person who took the painting found out that John and the German investigators were watching. Of course, it is also possible that the person who took the painting died in a car accident, and the person who mailed the painting did not receive the information of his accomplices, so wouldn't he come to check it in person? The case was divided into two cases, the first was theft and then air transport. The second is the collection of paintings. John is very capable, using a receipt left by the burglar to track down the burglar's hotel, and finds clues from the burglar's room. It took only twelve hours from theft to locking the address. Wait a minute...... Did the owner call the police? ”

"......" Montero replied after a moment's thought: "The owner called the police, and John intervened to investigate an hour after the theft, which may have surprised the owner...... However, suppose this is a case of insurance fraud involving theft and the oil painting is recovered, the owner should take it back with a boat. ”

Yu Ming nodded, and Montero thought of going with himself. If John was wronged, then the owner was the most likely villain. John is not wary of the owner, after all, he helped the owner find the painting. Call to ask if the painting is damaged, or bring an expert to identify the painting. But at that time, there was a German investigator in the house, and sleeping pills were detected on the wine glass, who ordered the sleeping pills? The second question, the owner got the oil painting back, and it was good to steal and cheat the insurance again, weishenme should be in a hurry to get the oil painting back?

Yu Ming asked, "Nancy, was your mother there that day?" ”

"She works the night shift. She's a doctor. Nancy replied.

Yu Ming said: "I don't understand the evidence, assuming that John is a good person, I can barely deduce what happened." ”

Bella said, "It's too child's play, isn't it?" You don't know much about this case. ”

"No, I'm just using the only possibility to coherent the whole case, for example. Weishenme special forces born John did not resist? Weishenme cup without sleeping pills? Weishenme lost owner will be in a hurry? weishenme…… All weishenme can get a far-fetched explanation. ”

This is a commonly used enumeration method, such as weishenme A man who is not good at women wants to give a high-class prostitute a sum of money? After enumerating the possibilities. Connection before and after causality. There is one remaining possibility, which may be far-fetched, but it can explain Weishenme. If you want to start with the target, you must understand the bits and pieces of the target's life, and the enumeration method is often used. The example of sending money used to be a goal for Yan San when he was young, and Yan San was very puzzled at the time. Later, I learned that the target got a certain project, so we connected with each other, and the man gave money to the senior prostitute in order to get the senior prostitute to give the money to the project director. So a little braid was pulled on the hand. The information is basically complete. Then there is purposeful blackmail, Yan San can call anonymously: Do you think that I don't know if you send money through dissipation?

The enumeration method is different from the elimination method, which lists a large number of possibilities and then excludes the ones with low probability. The enumeration method is deduction, which connects inconspicuous things and objects to reach a unique conclusion. However, there is a serious flaw in the enumeration method, that is, it is deduced in the case of information asymmetry and imperfection.

Montero nodded, "Please." ”

The statement is completely based on the owner's deception of insurance. A thief entered the owner's house and stole the painting, which the thief then mailed to an accomplice in Germany, choosing the address in a house that no one lived in Germany. It's perfect, but John's speed is too fast, at the same time as the courier arrives or the courier arrives at the address first, at this time the first question comes out, the owner weishenme is in a hurry to get the painting back? The answer to this question is that the owner was not in a hurry to get the painting back, but wanted to know what John knew. The only possibility is that the accomplice Yujian had an accident and could not contact the thief, and the owner and the thief did not know what was going on in Germany, and when they heard that the investigator had retrieved the painting, the owner asked John for information. ”

It's far-fetched, but the enumeration method is so far-fetched, because the enumeration method limits intelligence resources.

Yu Ming said again: "There are no sleeping pills in a wine glass, there is a wine glass, and on the basis that John is a good person, there is only one possibility, there are sleeping pills in the wine." Afterwards, the burglar washed a glass and replaced it with a bottle of wine. weishenme？ Because it is necessary to plant a false accusation. In two steps, the thief wanted to know if John had taken the painting back and drugged the wine before the two returned. When John and the German investigators had a drink, the second step was to identify the painting. ”

"When a burglar enters a house, he usually relies on lights and other things as a reference, and there are two experienced people in the house, so the burglar may not have the courage to enter. Mobile phones were not popular at the time, and dialing a landline was the best way, but I didn't expect John to fall asleep. At this time, the owner asked to identify the authenticity of the painting, and John did not doubt him, so he agreed. Then after drinking sleeping pills and wine, the defenseless John was taken away by the attack, how to clean up the situation? The owner came up with a plan to kill two birds with one stone, not only to get compensation, but also to get the oil painting. That is to let John carry the black cauldron. ”

Bella raised her mouth: "Yu Ming, it's a pity that you don't write a book, there are too many accidental factors in this, right?" ”

Yu Ming shook his head and said: "No, there is only one accidental factor, and the German accomplice had an accident. Let's look at the details, before the two investigators returned to the UK from Germany, they notified the insurance company and the owner, as the owner wanted to know the news as soon as possible, John would not doubt it. ”

Montero shook his head: "No, it's been too long, and the physical evidence is not there, so it can't be confirmed at all." And Yu Ming, you are on the premise that John is a good person, and you have strongly reasoned about what happened. I don't think you yourself will believe it. ”

Yu Ming said helplessly: "Evidence is really not what I'm good at, but at least I explained the possibility that John is a good person." ”

Bella sighed: "In any case, it can't be confirmed now. ”

"Not necessarily." Montero said suddenly: "According to what Yu Ming said, there will inevitably be something left. ”

"What?" The trio asked.

"Bones." Montero replied.

Yu Ming's enumeration confirms one thing, John was a good man, and must have died that day. All three of them were positive about this statement, and if John died that day, it would prove his innocence.

Montero explained in more detail: "The foundation of John being a good man is based on the fact that the owner is a bad man, and the distance between the owner and John's house is thirty kilometers, and in terms of location, there is no place where the body will not be found." Or I could say that if John was a good man, his body would most likely be buried in the owner's house. ”

Bella shook her head: "It's been ten years, even if it's buried in the owner's home, it's already been dealt with by the owner......"

Bella suddenly stopped talking and looked at Nancy, and the three of them talked about it without emotion, which had hurt Nancy very seriously. Montero said, "Nancy, go to the bar and have some drinks for yourself." ”

"Yes." Nancy nodded and left.

Montero said: "It is very likely that Bella said that there have been countless opportunities in the past ten years to transport the body and bury it in some barren mountain. ”

"Wait." Yu Ming suddenly remembered what Ye Zhan had said to himself, when Mandy came to China to look for sapphires, Yu Ming needed a leader to trigger the police, and this leader would be sentenced to several years in prison. Yu Ming asked Ye Zhan if there was a suitable candidate at that time, and Ye Zhan seriously warned Yu Ming that such people sold themselves for money, without any integrity at all, and they were likely to use this case as a threat after they were released from prison, and use Ming as an ATM. Yu Mingdao: "Is it possible to secretly inquire about the buyer's bank transfer records in the past few years?" Check to see if there is a regular transfer to a designated private account. ”

Yu Ming's speculation is unlikely, but there is no more way to do it at present, but to use the enumeration method to cite the possibilities, and then by collecting more information, to negate the enumeration method. As the saying goes, if you hit the shit luck, you will earn it if you hit it, and you won't lose money if you don't hit it. This is Yu Ming's motto.

Montero was silent for a while: "Yu Ming, you stand from a personal point of view, no problem." Our investigator organization has gone through three large-scale cross-examinations of John's case, and if this is the fourth, is it going to be the fifth? ”

Bella disagreed: "Hisoka, we don't need to alarm the organization, I think I can handle this matter." ”

"......" Montero thought for a moment and nodded, "Well, you'll be in charge of this matter." ”

"En......" Bella pondered and looked at Yu Ming: Does this girl just want me to be responsible, and deliberately let me take the initiative to ask for help?

Yu Ming looked at Bella: No, looking at Montero's brave, upright, and fair appearance, it is difficult to imagine that he has such a dark heart.

Checking the account is very simple for professionals, Bella is a professional, and fifteen minutes later, Bella got the transfer records of the owner in the past three years. However, the owner is a businessman, and a large number of transfer records should be slowly examined. Bella takes a fixed value first: "There is no record of transferring the same amount to an account on a monthly, yearly, or weekly basis." ”

Montero looked at his watch: "Miss Nancy, I'll take you home first." ”

Nancy looked at Yu Ming and Bella and nodded, "Haode." ”

Yu Ming stood up: "I should go too." ”

Bella stopped: "You caused something, you have to help me." ”

"......" Yu Ming thought about it and asked, "What do you need me to do?" "Friends of the dead Dao are not dead and poor, and they can increase their experience, so why not? (To be continued......)