$149.2 trillion

Ding Lei added: "NetEase also makes online games. Online games are very difficult to do, everyone has seen the success of Journey to the West and Fantasy Journey to the West, but they have ignored NetEase cutting many failed projects. Taking "Fantasy Journey to the West" as an example, we didn't expect it to surpass "Journey to the West 2" at first, but it did. At the end of 2004, the operating data of "Journey to the West 2" was still higher than that of "Fantasy Journey to the West", and now the highest number of concurrent online users of "Fantasy Westward Journey" has already exceeded 600,000, and the highest number of concurrent online users of "Journey to the West 2" is only 440,000. ”

"The Spring and Autumn of the Ten Kingdoms, the pioneering work of the Spring and Autumn Period, was very successful, and then the Spring and Autumn Software independently developed "The Master of the Dancing Forest" and "The Road to Survival", each of which is a rare boutique. "World of Warcraft", which is operated by the Spring and Autumn Network Agency, is also very likely to be a phenomenal masterpiece following "Legend of Blood" and "Spring and Autumn of the Ten Kingdoms". Spring and Autumn Software's grasp of the needs of players is admirable, and the ambition of Spring and Autumn Network to represent "World of Warcraft" at a sky-high price is also impressive. ”

"I very much admire Chunqiu's vision in the field of online games."

"But risk is risk after all. The characteristics of online games determine that no matter how successful they are in the past, there is no guarantee that the next work of Spring and Autumn will still be a masterpiece. ”

Wang Yan immediately said his thoughts: "In the second quarter of 2005, Sina's total revenue was 46.1 million US dollars, and the net profit was 10 million US dollars; NetEase's total revenue was $46.24 million and its net profit was $26.93 million, almost three times that of Sina. NetEase's high profits all come from the online game business represented by "Journey to the West 2" and "Fantasy Journey to the West", so Zhang Chaoyang just said that he envied Ding Lei for making money every day. ”

"Everyone knows that online games are a profiteering industry, but Spring and Autumn Network is completely different from NetEase. Spring and Autumn Network's total revenue was 115.54 million US dollars, but its net profit was only 26.57 million US dollars, less than NetEase's 26.93 million US dollars. The reason for this is that the operating costs of the Spring and Autumn Network are high, such as the huge investment in the development of servers at the top 500 supercomputers in the world; Secondly, because Spring and Autumn separated the copyright of "Spring and Autumn of the Ten Kingdoms" and "The Road to Survival", 30% of the sales were transferred to Spring and Autumn Software with the left hand and the right hand. ”

"Spring and Autumn Network is a cash cow, eating grass and milk."

"The only remaining profits of Chunqiu Network are operated and invested in four-dimensional space projects and intelligent factory projects that have nothing to do with the online game business. Shanda treats the online game business stingy, Spring and Autumn treats the online game business even more stingy, Wei Dongsheng is not willing to focus on the development of online games at all, how dare I be optimistic about him? ”

Ma Huateng is not optimistic about the sustainable development of online games, Ding Lei feels that online games are unpredictable and high-risk industries, and Wang Yan criticizes Wei Dongsheng for not focusing enough. In this way, Spring and Autumn Network seems to be really hopeless. Zhang Wei looked at Zhang Chaoyang, who did not answer: "What about Zhang Chaoyang?" ”

Zhang Chaoyang reined in his edge and did not participate in the criticism of the Spring and Autumn Network: "What I want to say, everyone has already said. ”

Zhang Weiying skipped Ma Yun: "The host is more polite, so let's not ask." ”

Zhang Weiying finally faced the center point of the whirlpool and asked Wei Dongsheng: "Everyone is unanimous in their views on the decline of the Spring and Autumn Network, is it unexpected by you?" ”

Wei Dongsheng's expression was very calm: "No." ”

Zhang Weiying was surprised: "Huh? ”

If you judge heroes by market capitalization, Spring and Autumn Network is the undisputed leader. The market value of Chinese enterprises listed on the NASDAQ is the highest in the Spring and Autumn Network, and the market value of the Spring and Autumn Network even exceeded the sum of other companies at one time. Zhang Weiying and the audience were surprised that Ma Yun, Ma Huateng, Ding Lei, Wang Yan, Zhang Chaoyang and others unanimously looked at the decline of the Spring and Autumn Network, but Wei Dongsheng in the center of the whirlpool was very calm and calmly faced everyone's doubts.

Wei Dongsheng said slowly: "The doubts about the Spring and Autumn Network are all in my expectation. Since September, the nearly $10 billion market value that Professor Zhang has just boasted about has become a thing of the past. Because Zhiyu Group realized some shares of Spring and Autumn Network, and Wang Yan said that everyone questioned the lack of focus and low profit ratio of Spring and Autumn Network, since the announcement of the second quarter of 2005 earnings statement, the stock price of Spring and Autumn Network has fluctuated and declined, and the market value of Spring and Autumn Network has shrunk to $7.1 billion based on the closing price on September 8. In less than a month, the market value of Spring and Autumn Network has evaporated from $9.4 billion to $7.1 billion, which is enough to prove that Spring and Autumn Network is collectively downsized by the capital market, and there is no shortage of five of them. ”

Wei Dongsheng said earlier that it was expected that everyone would see the stock price of the Spring and Autumn Network, but then added that he obviously did not agree. Zhang Weiying sensed Wei Dongsheng's emotions and asked: "Zhang Chaoyang feels that Sohu's stock price is seriously undervalued, do you think the $7.1 billion market value of Spring and Autumn Network is also undervalued?" ”

Wei Dongsheng: "Of course. ”

Zhang Weiying: "Do you think the market value of the Spring and Autumn Network is reasonable?" ”

Wei Dongsheng: "I won't say the specific numbers here. Just one word. In the next three months, the market value of Spring and Autumn Network is very likely to continue to decline, and even fall below $6 billion. However, all investors who resolutely sell and are unwilling to buy Spring and Autumn Network shares will definitely regret it on September 10 next year. ”

Zhang Weiying: "You are very confident in the Spring and Autumn Network. ”

Wei Dongsheng: "Of course. ”

The audience was attentive and curiously waiting for Wei Dongsheng, Ma Yun, Ding Lei and others to tear up. However, the West Lake Sword Discussion was not Wei Dongsheng's press conference, Zhang Weiying did not cater to everyone's expectations, but deliberately lowered the intensity of the dispute between the six people, and turned to a new topic lightly: "Just now, an audience reminded me that I seemed to be too surprised that everyone unanimously looked at the decline of the Spring and Autumn Network, so much so that I forgot to ask you whose company you are most optimistic about." In addition to Spring and Autumn, whose company are you most optimistic about? ”

Wei Dongsheng didn't care about Zhang Weiying's change of topic, and answered new questions in a flat tone: "Professor Zhang began to review the history of the West Lake sword, saying that many Internet companies five years ago are now faceless and non-existent, and those who survive and those who remain are kings, NetEase, Sina, Sohu, Tencent, and Alibaba are all the kings left in the waves." I think that after several years of hard work, the Internet has slowly matured. In a mature market, the risk will also be reduced, and the five companies here, as long as they do not make particularly big mistakes during the period, may not be able to dominate as much as they do today, but they will probably be able to continue to survive. Five years later, ten years later, NetEase, Sina, Sohu, Tencent, and Alibaba will definitely be alive. ”

Zhang Weiying added: "Who has the greatest potential?" ”

Wei Dongsheng: "Air-to-air has no meaning. What is considered excellent, let's set a standard first, assuming that the standard line is a market capitalization of $200 billion ......"

Zhang Weiying was suddenly embarrassed: "As far as I know, the highest market value of technology companies is Microsoft, which is currently worth about $280 billion. In addition to a group of oil banks and companies, there are only three companies with a market value of 200 billion US dollars, such as Wal-Mart, Microsoft, and General Electric. Isn't it too high for you to set the bar for excellence at $200 billion? ”

Wei Dongsheng: "I set the standard at $200 billion because if the development goes well, I think there must be a high probability that someone in the five companies will climb to a market value of $200 billion within ten years." ”

Zhang Weiying: "I'm curious, who deserves your attention?" ”

Wei Dongsheng: "The Alibaba of the host Jack Ma." ”

Zhang Weiying immediately turned to Ma Yun: "Ma Yun, Wei Dongsheng valued Alibaba at $200 billion, what do you think?" ”

Ma Yun smiled happily: "I feel so happy, but I also regret it." If I had known that Wei Dongsheng valued Alibaba so much, I should have gone to Chunqiu Huayuan instead of selling a 40% stake to Yahoo for $1 billion. Yahoo valued us at $2.5 billion, and by Chunqiu, I think even if there wasn't $200 billion, Wei Dongsheng would be able to value Alibaba at least $10 billion. ”

Zhang Weiying smiled and said, "Do you think Wei Dongsheng is slapping your ass?" ”

Jack Ma: "Even if it's a sycophant, I'm happy to hear it." ”

No one believes in Wei Dongsheng's assertion or that Alibaba is capable of achieving a market value of $200 billion within a decade. Even Jack Ma, who is full of self-confidence, does not dare to hope to bring Alibaba to the realm of $200 billion in market value. Wei Dongsheng's sincere optimistic judgment was unfortunately regarded as a joke by everyone.

Zhang Weiying interspersed a short story and asked: "Speaking of valuation, I think of an interesting story. Spring & Autumn Network was registered in December 2002 and successfully listed on NASDAQ in May 2005 after only two and a half years. The rapid rise of the Spring and Autumn Network is the envy of many enterprises. However, it is rumored that the listing time of the Spring and Autumn Network can actually be faster, and it will be able to ring the bell on the NASDAQ in June and July 2004. The reason why it was postponed to May 2005 was because you were not satisfied with the valuation of the securities underwriters on the Spring and Autumn Network, and did not want the Spring and Autumn Network to go to the footsteps of the grand and bloody listing. Wei Dongsheng, is this rumor true? ”

Wei Dongsheng admitted: "Financing is also investment, and it is always appropriate to go two by two. I think Spring and Autumn Network is worth $6 billion, and it has the ability to sprint $15 billion in the future; However, you look down on the Spring and Autumn Network and think that it is only worth 600 million US dollars, and the two sides naturally have no way to continue talking. ”

Zhang Weiying: "This rumor turned out to be true. Now you value Alibaba at $200 billion, and you really think it's worth $200 billion? ”

Wei Dongsheng: "If everything goes well, within ten years, Alibaba will definitely have a high probability of sprinting to a market value of $200 billion." ”

Zhang Weiying: "What if it doesn't go well? ”

Wei Dongsheng: "If it doesn't go well, everything will naturally be over." ”

Such a rational answer, Zhang Weiying can still accept it. Zhang Weiying asked again: "I heard that you valued Alibaba at $200 billion in ten years, and I am particularly curious about your expectations for the Spring and Autumn Period." How much do you value for the spring and autumn ten years later? ”