No. 216 Dragons can be big and small

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York arranged emergency negotiations to ask Wall Street elites to advise Lehman Brothers; The Federal Reserve also ordered Goldman Sachs and other companies to jointly evaluate Lehman Brothers' fixed assets, proposing whether to buy Lehman Brothers' commercial real estate by paying billions of dollars per company.

However, after reading Lehman Brothers' accounts, Wall Street elites have expressed doubts: How can Lehman Brothers continue to overvalue its loan securities holdings by 97.9% now, when real estate loan securities have plunged?

Lehman Brothers values itself at $30 billion in commercial real estate, with a maximum value of $20 billion.

If the discount is to $20 billion, companies may still have some interest; As for $30 billion, how far Lehman Brothers rolled.

The 216th dragon can be big and small

Lehman Brothers is also actively trying to save itself.

During Fuld's negotiations with Korea Development Bank, he attempted to spin off a $30 billion portfolio of commercial real estate to shareholders to form an independent public company; The sale or write-down of the remaining real estate assets is the use of the concept of limited liability to get rid of all non-performing assets. However, these non-performing assets involve countless bank capitals in all aspects, and how can Wall Street allow Lehman Brothers to escape and ascend to heaven. Lehman Brothers' selfishness has caused it to offend many potential partners.

On September 10, 2008, Lehman Brothers held an investor conference call and announced a net loss of $3.9 billion for the fiscal third quarter. Lehman Brothers' management did not mention the financing, instead hoping to raise money through the sale of existing assets. Standard & Poor's immediately warned Lehman Brothers to consider downgrading its credit rating out of concern about its ability to raise money.

However, public opinion is still optimistic about Lehman Brothers. Financial commentary has been active in suggesting that Lehman Brothers could use the Fed's new credit facility to raise funds and exchange illiquid assets for safer securities such as Treasuries.

On September 11, 2008, J.P. Morgan again requested $5 billion in additional collateral from Lehman Brothers, just as the $5 billion additional collateral claim a week earlier was pending. JPMorgan Chase & Co. has a very tough attitude and there is no room for manoeuvre.

On 12 September 2008, credit rating companies warned Lehman Brothers that they would downgrade Lehman Brothers' debt rating across the board the following Monday if no new funds were raised within 48 hours. This means that Lehman Brothers will need to pay more collateral to JPMorgan Chase and others. Inside and outside Lehman Brothers, panic flocked to Lehman Brothers, and countless customers flocked to demand withdrawal, so that Lehman Brothers' cash management system collapsed and collapsed in an instant.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York arranged emergency negotiations to ask Wall Street elites to advise Lehman Brothers; The Federal Reserve also ordered Goldman Sachs and other companies to jointly evaluate Lehman Brothers' fixed assets, proposing whether to buy Lehman Brothers' commercial real estate by paying billions of dollars per company. However, after reading Lehman Brothers' accounts, Wall Street elites have expressed doubts: How can Lehman Brothers continue to overvalue its loan securities holdings by 97.9% now, when real estate loan securities have plunged? Lehman Brothers values itself at $30 billion in commercial real estate, with a maximum value of $20 billion. If the discount is to $20 billion, companies may still have some interest; As for $30 billion, how far Lehman Brothers rolled.

By Sept. 14, Britain's Barclays Bank and Bank of America said they would refuse to buy Lehman Brothers unless they officially agreed to provide the amount needed for the deal. Treasury Secretary Paulson made it clear on September 12 that there would be no official bailout, and that taxpayers would not be able to use their money to lend to a collapsing investment bank. In the face of Paulson's righteous refusal, Barclays Bank of the United Kingdom shrank its head, and Bank of America turned around to buy Merrill Lynch, which was in a better financial position.

Lehman Brothers was the only buyer left with the Rose Fund.

At the same time, there was bad news from AIG: AIG couldn't hold on either. Compared to Lehman Brothers, AIG is too big to fail. Goldman Sachs, for example, holds at least $22 billion of AIG's credit default swaps, so large that Goldman Sachs fears AIG will go bankrupt. If AIG falls, Goldman Sachs will immediately have $22 billion in bad debt, which is worse than Lehman Brothers.

There are many related parties like Goldman Sachs.

In front of AIG, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers is not a matter at all.

The Federal Reserve urgently joined forces with Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, UBS and other ten major banks, each of which contributed $7 billion to establish a $70 billion equalization fund to provide financial guarantees for financial institutions at risk of bankruptcy.

The money is secured by AIG, not Lehman Brothers.

The Fed has de facto abandoned Lehman Brothers.

Since the world's leading hedge funds own the assets of Lehman Brothers and its subsidiaries, in order to avoid the financial system being involved in the vortex caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association announced that investors will be allowed to write off credit derivatives linked to Lehman Brothers. On the evening of September 14, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York officially informed Lehman Brothers that before the opening time of Monday, Lehman Brothers would either obtain circulating funds from Huaguo Capital, led by the Rose Fund, or prepare bankruptcy filing documents.

In just a few days, the Rose Fund became the only way for Lehman Brothers to survive.

Despite the unreliability of the Rose Fund, Lehman Brothers could only desperately grasp this lifeline.

At around 22 o'clock on September 14, New York time, Fuld asked to cross Gong Qiuqiu to talk to the real person behind the helm of the legendary Rose Fund. Gong Qiuqiu encrypted the network video to communicate with Wei Dongsheng, and said depressedly: "Lehman Brothers has no funds to maintain normal operations, and it will file for bankruptcy before the market opens on Monday." ”

Wei Dongsheng joked: "It's already Monday here in Yanjing." ”

Gong Qiuqiu sensed Wei Dongsheng's optimism, and a thought flashed through his mind: "Are you really ready to buy Lehman Brothers?" ”

Wei Dongsheng: "Why not? ”

Gong Qiuqiu: "Lehman Brothers is a deep pit that we can't fill, and Bank of America avoids it. ”

Wei Dongsheng: "We are not a Bank of America. ”

Gong Qiuqiu: "So, we can't fill the deep hole of Lehman Brothers. ”

Wei Dongsheng sighed: "From Bear Stearns to Merrill Lynch, they all bullied our weak position on Wall Street and constantly asked for a delay in the performance of the contract at a discount. Bear Stearns' $1.5 billion contract was cut to $600 million, and Merrill Lynch's $3 billion contract was also expected to be cut to $300 million. Even if a compromise is accepted, the profits from shorting will passively become the paper figures of the banks. Money that can't move is not money, and instead of letting the greedy financial giants such as JPMorgan Chase, Bear Stearns, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch and other soft knives sharpen away the profits that should belong to us, it is better to set off a storm on Wall Street through Lehman Brothers. ”

Gong Qiuqiu: "It is indeed enforceable to cooperate with an investment bank to counter the greed of other investment banks. But Lehman Brothers' financial situation is so bad that it lacks $5 billion in short-term liquidity, $30 billion in long-term guaranteed funds, and its loan bond holdings are a powder keg. The bankruptcy documents prepared by Lehman Brothers themselves are said to have a total debt of more than 800 billion, which can be described as the largest bankruptcy filing case in history. ”

Wei Dongsheng shook his head: "It's not that serious. ”

Gong Qiuqiu was surprised: "What do you say?" ”

Wei Dongsheng: "The Federal Reserve will save the market." ”

Gong Qiuqiu: "Paulson has refused...... No, you mean AIG. ”

Wei Dongsheng: "Yes, it's too big to fail. Lehman Brothers' problems seem very serious at first glance, but in fact, as long as they drag on for a while, until the Fed comes to the rescue of AIG, all the difficulties will disappear with the wind. We don't have to be critical of getting Lehman Brothers out of the maelstrom, as long as it can survive a little longer, it will be unharmed. Instead of cashing out the VAM contracts against Merrill Lynch and AIG at a discount, it is better to transfer them to Lehman Brothers to continue their lives. As long as it is done properly, there will be no substantial loss of roses. ”

Gong Qiuqiu did not agree, nor did he express any objection: "Let's talk to Fuld first." ”

Communication in the Internet age was relatively cheap, and Wei Dongsheng soon established a video connection with Fuld, the man at the helm of Lehman Brothers. Fulder's cheeks were filled with anxiety, and he confirmed that Wei Dongsheng, the behind-the-scenes helmsman of the Rose Fund and the head of the Spring and Autumn Search, was on the other side of the video, and he didn't waste time nagging emotional words, and simply and rudely cut into the topic: "Lehman Brothers is less than twelve hours away from bankruptcy, tell me your minimum conditions, as long as there is a trace of possibility, I will accept it." ”

Wei Dongsheng sat firmly in the Diaoyutai and unceremoniously criticized Fuld: "Since July 2007, Lehman Brothers has been very blind and clumsy in the face of the crisis, and a few days ago I was hesitant to support one of your executives to usurp power of Lehman Brothers. ”

Fuld did not retort angrily, but promised with an old face: "If you offer the right price, I can return it for the sake of Lehman Brothers." ”

Wei Dongsheng did not negotiate a specific price with Fuerde, and told the story slowly: "Dragon culture is prevalent in my country, pay attention to the long, not the dragon." What is a dragon? The dragon can be big and small, and it can rise and hide; The big ones are spitting out the clouds, and the small ones are hidden and hidden. The so-called everyone is like a dragon, not everyone can be strong enough to spit out fog, but everyone can be big and small, and can sweep the world and sweep a room. ”

"There is a lot of luck, but there is a limited capacity, and there will always be losses and profits in business operations. For your part, no one who has failed to admire your ability to separate Lehman Brothers from American Express and grow from $75 million in profits in 1994 to today. However, it is easy to walk downwind, but difficult to walk against the wind, and the current crisis is the most testing thing. Before 2007, you performed the ability to be big; After 2007, you didn't deduce the ability to be small. Because, I'm not optimistic that you will be able to lead Lehman Brothers out of the quagmire. ”

Fuld did not refute, and calmly responded to Wei Dongsheng's question: "Who do you think can replace me?" ”

Wei Dongsheng shrugged: "The problem is here, I am not optimistic about your ability, but I can't think of anyone who can carry the burden of Lehman Brothers instead of you." ”

Fuld was a little confused.

Wei Dongsheng's initial tone, Fuld felt that Wei Dongsheng wanted to take the opportunity to force him to abdicate, but Wei Dongsheng immediately said that he didn't know who could replace him.

If it weren't for forcing the palace, why would Wei Dongsheng say that these disciples were unpleasant?

Fuld didn't understand what Wei Dongsheng meant, so he simply retreated and continued to express his sincerity: "If you think anyone can lead Lehman Brothers out of the crisis, I can abdicate at any time and make way for Xian." ”