Article 221 Political economy is not separated
For example, the construction of high-speed rail, the cabinet was not in a hurry to promote it. Now, in order to expand domestic demand and promote steady economic growth, the cabinet has decisively stepped out
"Focus on the construction of a number of passenger dedicated lines, coal transportation channel projects and western trunk railways, improve the highway network, arrange the construction of central and western trunk airports and branch airports, and speed up the transformation of urban power grids" and other measures to speed up infrastructure construction.
Among them, the Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed railway project, after the State Council approved the "Medium and Long-term Railway Network Plan" in 2005, the Minister of Railways based in Wuhan finally promoted the construction of the southern section of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway.
Now in the face of the financial crisis, the state decided to invest heavily in infrastructure construction, all problems are no longer a problem, the northern section of the Shiwu high-speed railway, Beijing-Shizhou high-speed railway and so on almost at the same time announced the start of construction in early October.
No. 221 political economy is not separated
After 8 o'clock in the evening, the detailed news of the acquisition of 40% of Lehman Brothers by Rose Fund, CIC and CITIC came one after another.
Netizens were surprised to find that behind the unfamiliar Rose Fund was the Spring and Autumn Group. From security housekeeper to credit treasure, Spring and Autumn Internet to Spring and Autumn search, there is always a Spring and Autumn product that will become the daily companion of netizens. Spring and Autumn's influence and topicality on the Internet far exceed those of CIC and CITIC. The intervention of the Spring and Autumn Festival not only reduced the pressure on CIC and CITIC, but also made this acquisition slightly overshadow the melamine milk powder time of Sanlu Group, and became the hottest topic on the Internet that day.
Wei Dongsheng's video speech to Lehman Brothers' investment clients also spread quickly in the form of text and pictures. Fuld reviewed and introduced the results of the Rose Fund, which caused a wave of unclear surprise; Wei Dongsheng recited "Bian Que Meets Cai Huangong" in English, and all forums brushed up the high-rise building; Wei Dongsheng's "not short for the sake of shorting" quickly became a popular phrase on the Internet; It wasn't until Wei Dongsheng talked about big data that there was gradually more discussion in the onlookers' banter atmosphere.
Many netizens are unclear about the unspoken rules of Wall Street investment banks, and take it for granted that the acquisition of an investment bank is an analogy with the acquisition of an ordinary company. Netizens looked at this acquisition with such a mentality, and they couldn't help but feel optimistic that the huge acquisition of the famous Lehman Brothers was the precursor of Huaguo Capital's entry into Wall Street, and they misunderstood that the acquisition of Lehman Brothers could occupy a place on Wall Street.
CIC and CITIC did not explain, nor did Spring and Autumn Search, which led to an optimistic overestimation of the value of the acquisition.
Overall, public opinion in China is generally inclined to support the acquisition.
International capital is equally bullish on the deal. After the U.S. stock market opened, Lehman Brothers' stock price fell first and then rose against the backdrop of financial stocks, and Merrill Lynch became the only financial stock to rise on the day. Benefiting from the correlation of the Rose Fund and the introduction of the concept of big data, the stock price of Spring and Autumn Search, which has been declining in the economic crisis environment, soared by 19.96% on the same day, and its market value soared from $27.47 billion on September 12 to $32.95 billion on September 15.
Of course, the financial crisis cannot end so simply.
Just like Wei Dongsheng's "Bian Que Meets Cai Huangong" recited five times, Bank of America's acquisition of Merrill Lynch and Rose Fund's joint acquisition of 40% of Lehman Brothers' shares are both palliative strategies that do not cure the root cause. The longer the delay, the more devastating the financial crisis will be. The resolution of the crisis between Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers has paralyzed the judgment of Wall Street giants to a certain extent. In the face of the more serious AIG, Treasury Secretary Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (Ben_Shalom_Bernanke) decided to repeat the 48-hour emergency rescue miracle of Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers, pushing other buyers to take over AIG.
Unfortunately, there was no second Rose Fund in the world.
From Sept. 15 to Sept. 19, Paulson and Bernanke were slow to realize that AIG, a monster too big to fail, was simply not something that could be rescued by buyers like Bank of America, Rose Fund, and Mitsubishi of Japan. At the same time, Punan Investment (Putnam_Investments) was forced to withdraw funds due to investor runs and announced the liquidation of a $12 billion money market fund, which immediately brought more cascading crises. Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch's September 15 stock prices bucked the trend and bucked the trend and became a brief erection, falling along with other financial stocks.
The poor performance of Lehman Brothers has dragged down the performance of the Rose Fund, with many high-end clients demanding redemptions in defiance of the two-year no-divestment contract. The ripple effect of the decline in the credibility of the Rose Fund further dragged down the Spring and Autumn Search, which soared by 19.96% on September 15 and soon fell without a trace in just a few days. The market value of Spring and Autumn Search based on the closing price on September 23 was only $25.66 billion, and Mo said that the surge on September 15 has evaporated by $1.81 billion compared to the market value of $27.47 billion before the Rose Fund jointly acquired Lehman Brothers.
U.S. stocks fell, Japanese stocks fell, and Russian stocks fell......
Japan urgently injected 2 trillion yen, and Russia urgently injected 475 billion rubles......
The crisis from September 15 to September 21 fermented and caused the risk of overturning Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley (Japan's Mitsubishi acquired a 20% stake in Morgan Stanley for $9 billion), and Goldman Sachs (Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought $5 billion preferred shares of Goldman Sachs) that had just received financing.
At this time, all financial institutions are living like a year all the time.
Due to the increasingly embarrassing situation, the Federal Reserve had to temporarily approve emergency rescue measures late at night on September 23, authorizing the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to provide an emergency loan of $80 billion to AIG; Approve the conversion of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Lehman Brothers, which stand on the edge of the cliff, into bank holding companies in order to receive greater rescue operations; provide US$100 billion to commercial banks through short-term loans to alleviate the credit crunch; The largest government-to-government rescue plan in history with a total amount of $750 billion, the fastest start process.
At this point, the financial crisis officially broke out in full swing.
Compared with the memory of 30 years, the financial crisis of the present world came a little later, and the intensity has increased slightly due to the delay of time.
The financial crisis is global, and China is not immune to this catastrophe, on September 24, the Shenhai Securities Index broke through 2,000 points, plummeting 4.5%. This is a helpless thing, the Chinese government cannot isolate the impact of the financial crisis, and Wei Dongsheng does not have such ability.
It's a historical itinerary.
Wei Dongsheng was too lazy to think about the financial crisis. When the Shenzhou 7 manned spacecraft revolved around the earth, Wei Dongsheng packed up his salute and returned to the nest in Panyang City. Unexpectedly, as soon as the wheel walked onto Wenjin Street, Secretary Wu suddenly called: "Mr. Wei Dongsheng, can you stay in Yanjing for a few more days?" ”
Wei Dongsheng stroked his forehead in distress: "What do you say?" ”
Secretary Wu said: "Shoufu and the cabinet elders are curious about the big data analysis of the Rose Fund predicting the financial crisis, can the Spring and Autumn Search extend the topic of big data analysis economic crisis?" ”
Wei Dongsheng did not refuse recklessly.
Political and economic are not separated, whether it is the development of enterprises such as Spring and Autumn Period, Zhiyu, Zhixing, Zhuwei, etc., or the development of quantum fluctuation circles in the future, they cannot leave the support of national policies.
Policies that feel like they have nothing to do with you will actually affect you indirectly and quietly. For example, a product like Yu'e Bao Wealth Management is not something that Spring and Autumn wants to launch, and it must be released by the policy before the Credit Treasure of Spring and Autumn can launch Yu'e Bao Wealth Management. The policy of lifting the clamp on the financial management of Yu Yu Bao is the governing idea of the first assistant of the next cabinet, and no matter how advanced and complete the technology of the Spring and Autumn Credit Treasure is, it is impossible to launch it before 2012. After the next cabinet chief assistant takes office, he shouts the slogan of financial innovation, and products similar to Yu Bao wealth management can become products that comply with laws and regulations.
Of course, the policy has its advantages and disadvantages, and a bunch of usury variants of Internet finance and campus naked loans will also emerge in endlessly.
The list goes on.
The bigger the enterprise, the more inseparable it is from policy support. Therefore, the news conveyed by Secretary Wu is actually good news. Secretary Wu's so-called extension, if it can be handed to the 32 elders of the cabinet for discussion, Wei Dongsheng may be able to influence the collective resolution of the cabinet through his exposition and formulate and introduce some policies that are beneficial to Wei Dongsheng.
Wei Dongsheng decisively accepted this task: "What are the main aspects? ”
Secretary Wu: "The intensity and scope of this round of financial crisis, what crises or opportunities will it bring to China?" In the face of this round of financial crisis, what measures should China take? Wait a minute. Shoufu instructed that you should not be taboo, say whatever comes to mind, and in the face of crisis, you need to break the old concept of innovative thinking. ”
Wei Dongsheng: "How long does it take to hand it over?" ”
Secretary Wu: "The sooner the better." ”
Wei Dongsheng: "Okay. ”
Wei Dongsheng stopped leaving Beijing and immediately returned to Beihai Courtyard to prepare a report.
Wei Dongsheng did not believe that Secretary Wu "can say whatever he wants", but carefully considered the current cabinet's governing ideas, and put forward his own opinions with reference to the memory of 30 years. Perhaps because of the hindsight of 30 years of memory, Wei Dongsheng's report unexpectedly received a high degree of attention from the cabinet. After handing over this report, Wei Dongsheng was repeatedly invited by the cabinet elders to Aoyuqiaonan to further elaborate on his ideas; Wei Dongsheng didn't have time to be surprised, and took advantage of this rare opportunity to brave the storm brought by the financial crisis and wander among the cabinet elders.
During this period, Wei Dongsheng witnessed the introduction of many policies.
For example, the construction of high-speed rail, the cabinet was not in a hurry to promote it. Now, in order to expand domestic demand and promote steady economic growth, the cabinet has decisively issued measures to speed up infrastructure construction, such as "focusing on the construction of a number of passenger dedicated lines, coal transportation channel projects, and western trunk railways, improving the expressway network, arranging the construction of trunk airports and regional airports in the central and western regions, and speeding up the transformation of urban power grids." Among them, the Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed railway project, after the State Council approved the "Medium and Long-term Railway Network Plan" in 2005, the Minister of Railways based in Wuhan finally promoted the construction of the southern section of the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway. Now in the face of the financial crisis, the state decided to invest heavily in infrastructure construction, all problems are no longer a problem, the northern section of the Shiwu high-speed railway, Beijing-Shizhou high-speed railway and so on almost at the same time announced the start of construction in early October.
Wei Dongsheng actively exerted his influence, using the rhetoric of developing the central and western regions and the optimistic prospects of Panyang City as a guarantee, and persuaded the cabinet to use Panyang City as a pilot. At the same time that Panyang City was connected to the Beijing-Guangzhou high-speed railway on the basis of the existing horizontal and vertical planning of the high-speed railway, Wei Dongsheng persuaded the cabinet to raise funds to build two diagonal high-speed railways, one connecting Panyang City to Shenhai City and the other connecting Panyang City to Qingdao City. In this way, Panyang can establish simpler and more convenient economic exchanges with coastal areas such as Guangyang, Yanjing, Shenhai and Qingdao through high-speed rail.