The 212th Olympic Games are over, and the financial turmoil has arrived

It is human nature to chase up and down.

From October 2007 to August 2008, in just ten months, the Shenhai Securities Index plummeted from a high of 6,000 points to the current 2,600 points, and the total market value of the Huaguo stock market evaporated by more than 9 trillion yuan. Under the current accounting and statistical standards, China's GDP in 2007 was only 25.3 trillion yuan, and 9 trillion yuan was 35% of 25.3 trillion yuan.

The market value of the stock market is also a kind of net assets, which can be imagined as 35% of everyone's annual income into nothing, if the original average monthly income is 5,000 yuan, now the average monthly income is only 3,250 yuan. To make an abstract analogy, it's like if you should have received a monthly salary of 5,000 yuan, but unexpectedly, the virtual economy is sluggish, and the salary is suddenly cut to 3,250 yuan.

A monthly salary of 5,000 yuan and a monthly salary of 3,000 yuan are obviously two concepts.

Although the virtual economy is not a real economy, its impact on specific groups of people is just as tragic.

When the market is higher, all problems are not a problem, investors are smiling, and non-market policy intervention is excluded; When the market fell, the original small problems became big problems, and investors cried and asked the government to save the market and take over. In addition to calling on the state to punish the shorts, the market has also launched fierce debates on such issues as "whether the dismissal of 'big and small' sales is the main cause of the crash", "whether the stock market crash has exacerbated the macroeconomic downturn", "whether the government should bail out the market", and "whether the reform of equity division is worthy of affirmation".

The Cabinet's suggestion of whether the government should bail out the market is one of many heated debates.

From the stock speculation of the whole people to the trapping of the whole people, countless victims are naturally inclined to the government to take over in order to understand the cash out. Professors and experts who hold the opposite viewpoint are criticized by public opinion as "beasts" and "bricks", and are fiercely ridiculed. When discussing these issues, what matters is not who is right and who is wrong, but where the ass sits: the ass sits with me, you are the expert; If your ass doesn't sit with me, you're a brick family.

In the current situation, the more rational strategy is not to express an opinion.

Because Wei Dongsheng has long withdrawn from the Chinese stock market, because the Spring and Autumn Network and Spring and Autumn Search are both on the NASDAQ in the United States, the stock market crash and surge have limited impact on Wei Dongsheng. Not expressing opinions, not being an expert, and not being a brick family is the most beneficial to Wei Dongsheng.

But now that the cabinet chief assistant asked, Wei Dongsheng couldn't be clever anymore. The head of the cabinet may introduce some policies that some people hate because of their differences, but he himself is by no means stupid, and it is impossible for a fool to sit on the throne of one person and ten thousand people. Wei Dongsheng's delusional attempt to be clever in front of the cabinet chief assistant will only backfire and provoke the "incompetent" label to be disdained, and what he loses is far greater than what Mingzhe gains by protecting himself.

After thinking about it for more than ten seconds, Wei Dongsheng decided to stand on his own position to speak: "Long-term stock investment can be simply divided into two categories, one is stable, based on parameters such as price-earnings ratio to determine whether a company's stock is worth investing; The second is speculation, based on whether a company has excellent future prospects, judging that the value is not worth investing. ”

Taking the two companies of Spring and Autumn Network and Spring and Autumn Search as examples, the operating income of Spring and Autumn Network in 2007 was 8.838 billion yuan and the net profit was 1.767 billion yuan, and the operating income of Spring and Autumn Search was 3.719 billion yuan and the net profit was 1.047 billion yuan. Whether it is revenue or net profit, the data of Spring and Autumn Network is better than Spring and Autumn Search. However, based on yesterday's closing price, the market value of Spring and Autumn Search is $30.5 billion, while the market value of Spring and Autumn Network is only $11.4 billion, the former is almost three times that of the latter. The market capitalization of Spring Search is higher than that of Spring and Autumn Network because it has excellent future prospects, and it is expected to catch up with Spring and Autumn Network within five years at most. If I were a shareholder, I would also be willing to hold the shares of Spring and Autumn Search. ”

"Looking at a few stocks, a few companies, perhaps we should prioritize its future prospects as we do in angel investment. However, the Spring and Autumn search for such companies is not a common phenomenon, and more listed companies cannot realize the wonderful fantasy of doubling and doubling their market capitalization. ”

"By limiting ourselves to one stock, we can have a speculative mentality; Looking at the stock market as a whole, it must be based on prudent policies, that is, to return the stock market to its most basic financing attributes. Therefore, it is actually easier to judge whether a stock index will go higher or lower in the future than if a stock goes higher or lower. Credible parameters such as operating income, net profit, and price-earnings ratio are the foundation of the broader market, and securities indices without the support of economic foundation will certainly not be sustainable. I briefly summarized the information of all listed companies in Shenhai Securities, and concluded that 3,000 points is more appropriate, more than 4,000 points are dangerous, and less than 2,000 points will affect stock market financing. ”

"In my opinion, if the Shenhai Securities Index fluctuates within a certain reasonable range, the government does not have to save it, nor should it save it; When it is above the tolerable upper limit or lower than the tolerable lower limit, the government must save it in time, and CP Bright has introduced a series of policies to stabilize the operation of the stock market. ”

The head of the cabinet summed up Wei Dongsheng's views succinctly: "Interfering in economic policy. ”

Economic policy is divided into planned economy and free economy, planned economy means that the means of production are completely controlled by the government, and all development is planned by the state; A free economy means that the government does not interfere in the economy and allows the development of market laws; Intervention in the economy is the product of coordination between the two, which can be simply imagined as the Shenhai Securities Index delineates a certain market economy range of 2,000 to 4,000 points.

Cabinet First Assistant: "Shenhai Securities Index is likely to fall below 2,000 points? ”

Wei Dongsheng: "The odds are great. ”

Cabinet Chief: "Why? ”

Wei Dongsheng: "Chasing up and down, the sheep always chase the rise and chase fiercely, and kill and kill fiercely." ”

The first assistant to the cabinet was noncommittal, and then moved on to a new topic: "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest home mortgage financiers in the United States, have been very bad in recent times, how do you think of the economic crisis of 2007?" ”

Wei Dongsheng: "Times." ”

The cabinet chief frowned slightly: "More serious than in 2007?" ”

Wei Dongsheng: "Definitely." ”

The head of the cabinet was about to speak, when suddenly a secretary came up and reminded him in a low voice, "First assistant, the time is up." ”

The junior staff is busy with the junior staff, and the cabinet chief is busy with the cabinet chief, and the working hours of the cabinet chief assistant are often filled several days in advance. After meeting Wei Dongsheng, he may continue to meet with other people, or participate in various meetings, unless the situation is urgent, it is impossible to leisurely chat with Wei Dongsheng.

The Chief Cabinet Minister nodded to the secretary in understanding.

The secretary didn't say a wordy admonition, turned around and walked away a certain distance.

The cabinet chief no longer asked about specific matters, and said with a kind smile: "I heard that you like boxing?" ”

Wei Dongsheng is accustomed to using health boxing to regulate the burden of thinking and controlling the body, as Wei Dongsheng has been the richest man in China for three consecutive years, his economic status has become more and more stable, and he has been placed under a magnifying glass by more and more interested people to observe and study. Wei Dongsheng loves health, health, and boxing, and has slowly become a label for Wei Dongsheng from the outside world.

Wei Dongsheng didn't bother to defend himself, so he simply accepted such a label over and over again: "I like it a lot." ”

Cabinet Chief: "I also like boxing, tai chi. ”

Wei Dongsheng: "I'm not familiar with Tai Chi. ”

Cabinet Chief: "No matter what kind of boxing method, the different paths are the same, and the boxing principles are the same." Can you stay in Yanjing recently, and we can exchange boxing experience when we have time? ”

Wei Dongsheng did not rely on boxing to make a name for himself, if the first assistant of the cabinet wanted to exchange boxing techniques, it would not be Wei Dongsheng's turn anyway. However, the invitation of the cabinet chief assistant was obviously not the drunkard's intention to drink, and he wanted to communicate with Wei Dongsheng more than just boxing. Considering that power is the first place under the Chinese system, Wei Dongsheng immediately adjusted his itinerary: "Okay. ”

The head of the cabinet seemed to be concerned and asked, "Do you have a place to live?" ”

This sentence is obviously still what he thinks, no matter how high the housing prices in Yanjing are, Wei Dongsheng will not be so embarrassed that he will sleep on the streets and have no place to live. Wei Dongsheng didn't understand what the cabinet chief assistant really wanted to ask, so he had to answer stiffly: "There is no arrangement for the time being, and I may live in Poly Hyde Park between Yenching Aerospace University and Yenching Film Academy, or Heqing Garden north of Tsinghua University." ”

Cabinet Chief: "The road is a bit far, why don't you live on Wenjin Street?" ”

Wei Dongsheng did not refuse: "Okay." ”

This is the end of the meeting.

A secretary surnamed Wu arranged Wei Dongsheng and Bai Guo in a residence on the side of the Beihai Sea, waiting for the second meeting of the cabinet chief. Unfortunately, the first assistant to the cabinet was obviously very busy, and there was no news for three days, five days, and ten and a half months. However, Secretary Wu has already told Wei Dongsheng that the Beihai Mansion is not a prison, and that from Poly Hyde Park to the Spring and Autumn Search Building at the Xierqi subway station, Wei Dongsheng can go wherever he wants. There is only one real restriction, Wei Dongsheng needs to keep in touch with Secretary Wu at all times, to ensure that Secretary Wu can know Wei Dongsheng's specific location at any time.

Wei Dongsheng was not confined to the Beihai Mansion, but was imprisoned in the Fifth Ring Road of Yanjing.

During his stay in Yanjing, Wei Dongsheng accompanied Bai Guo to watch the Olympic Games every day and applauded the wonderful athletes; In the evening, he communicated with Gong Qiuqiu to learn about the development of the financial turmoil from a distance. Bear Stearns has collapsed, and the remaining four investment banks, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Lehman Brothers, are also mired in the quagmire, with Lehman Brothers having the most serious problems.

To tide over the storm, Richard Fuld (Richard_Fuld), at the helm of Lehman Brothers, actively sought out buyers. Fuld once called Warren Buffett (arren_Buffett), who topped the 2008 Forbes list of the world's richest people, for help, and Buffett offered Lehman Brothers a price of $40 per share for the acquisition. Fuld insisted that Lehman Brothers was running very healthy, insisted that real estate would soon be revived, and that any offer below $66 per share would be an insult to him.