The 210th person who sees the future is eligible for windfall profits

The day after Bear Stearns capsized, Lehman Brothers was also in the spotlight.

In March 2008, Lehman Brothers reported earnings for the first fiscal quarter (October-December 2007), announcing a profit of $489 million. Hedge fund managers who shorted Lehman Brothers stock have addressed high-end investors, sharply questioning the fact that the earnings figures are derived from one-time gains. Lehman Brothers was quick to respond: "They have taken out some specific items from our quarterly report, taken them out of context, distorted the facts, and conveyed false information to the public that slandered Lehman Brothers." This is appropriate for them because they are short Lehman Brothers stock. All their baseless accusations are aimed at profiting. ”

Lehman Brothers swore that he was financially sound.

However, the capital market apparently trusts the judgment of hedge funds more, and Lehman Brothers' stock continues to fall.

In June 2008, Lehman Brothers released its second-quarter earnings report, which, as judged by the short-selling managers of hedge funds, resulted in a shocking loss of $2.8 billion, proving that all the so-called "rumors" were falsely told by Lehman Brothers. The capital market no longer believes Lehman Brothers' explanation of the rumors, let alone the financial situation announced by Lehman Brothers, and feels that the loss of $2.8 billion is still the result of deliberate fraud. As a result, Lehman Brothers' stock price accelerated lower, falling to $19.81 by the end of the month.

When the subprime mortgage crisis first erupted in 2007, Lehman Brothers survived the Fed bailout, and its stock price was about $85 per share. Heading into early 2008, Lehman Brothers' stock price was still hovering at $65 per share. At $85, Lehman Brothers' market value has evaporated by three-quarters in just half a year. Moreover, $19.81 is Lehman's lowest since May 2000, a literally overnight return to eight years ago.

Instead of being aware of the impending tsunami of economic crisis, the public saw the collapse of Bear Stearns and the collapse of Lehman Brothers' stock price as isolated events. Even on relatively specialized Wall Street, there is talk of Goldman Sachs manipulating the stock prices of Bear Stearns and Lehman, thinking that it is a war between financial giants.

However, the onset of the economic crisis is always lightning fast.

Merrill Lynch, another of the five largest U.S. investment banks, also had bad news a few days later: in the first quarter of 2008, it lost $2 billion; In the second quarter of 2008, there was a net loss of $4.7 billion.

Even more dangerous than Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. On July 26, 2008, the U.S. Senate approved a $300 billion housing assistance bill authorizing the Treasury Department to increase Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's credit lines indefinitely, and to acquire Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's stock in an unlimited amount if necessary. However, the positive effects of the $300 billion housing assistance package are very limited, and public opinion estimates that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac still face a deficit of at least tens of billions of dollars.

At this time, the people at the bottom complained that the Senate, the Ministry of Finance, etc., used the people's fat and people's ointment to fill the deficit created by the greed of the financial giants; Investors who own Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks hope that the U.S. Treasury Department will take more active and effective measures to bring back Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks.

In recent years, China's economy has developed rapidly, and the balance of foreign exchange reserves has continued to set new records, some of which have invested in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. No one wants their investment to come to naught, and the Chinese government is also desperate for the U.S. government to support Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other investments. U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson said he had spoken with his cabinet chief supporter against this background.

If he tears his face and insists on shorting, Wei Dongsheng will not only offend the U.S. government, but also all investors, including the Chinese government.

Wei replied cautiously: "I also hope that the market will stabilize." ”

Paulson nodded slightly: "The market will stabilize, if you actively cooperate." ”

Wei Dongsheng: "How do you want me to cooperate?" ”

Paulson: "The Rose Fund stopped shorting. ”

Wei Dongsheng: "The Rose Fund has stopped shorting. ”

Paulson: "The Rose Fund still has a lot of short contracts. ”

Wei Dongsheng smiled and sarcastically: "The Ministry of Finance's efforts to stabilize the market are so big that I am surprised, do you need me to announce it to appease the market?" The Ministry of Finance decided to order the Securities and Exchange Commission to issue permanent measures, hedge funds can only go long and not short, and all short contracts will be invalidated; Stocks can only go up, not down, and all transactions below the current price are invalid. It's a fantastic market, where all stocks don't fall, it's just a matter of making more and making less. ”

After all, Wall Street is someone else's territory, and Wei Dongsheng, Gong Qiuqiu, and Rose Fund do not have an active advantage.

When JPMorgan Chase bought Bear Stearns, it forced Rose to discount its $1.5 billion contract on paper to $600 million through cumbersome spin-offs and legal interpretations. If the Rose Fund had home-court advantage like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Bear Stearns would certainly have to pay $1.5 billion in full; But the Rose Fund is an outsider, the second is no history, and the third is not enough network resources, so it can only watch JPMorgan Chase and Belstad cut $900 million.

After the collapse of Bear Stearns, although the US government could not catch the Rose Fund, it still forcibly used the "Iraqi weapons of mass destruction" to justify the accusation against the Rose Fund and restrict the Rose Fund from transferring short-selling profits out of the United States. In terms of technical level, both Wei Dongsheng and Gong Qiuqiu have a way to transfer funds beyond supervision. However, such behavior will not only turn white legal money into gray or even black money in an instant, but will also be attacked by various departments of the US government.

Wei Dongsheng is not short of black money.

Whether it is the investment and development of Panyang City or the development of quantum fluctuation circles, white capital is needed to drive the industrial chain.

Wei Dongsheng asked for white money.

As a result, the Rose Fund fought with the U.S. government and its masterminds by legal means. As early as June 2008, the Rose Fund stopped continuing to short, holding on to its previous contracts and waiting for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Lehman Brothers to cut their meat.

Although the Rose Fund has stopped shorting, the paper amount of short-selling contracts accumulated before is as high as more than 70 billion US dollars. In other words, if all contracts are paid in full, the Rose Fund will be able to raise more than $700 billion.

In 2008, Warren Buffett (arren_Buffett), who topped the Forbes list of global billionaires, had a net worth of only $62 billion.

The Rose Fund has only been established for two years, and it has made a lot of money from Warren Buffett.

Just think about it, of course.

The paper amount is the paper amount, and the performance amount is the performance amount.

The so-called more than 70 billion paper amounts, the Rose Fund is basically difficult to get in full, some need to be discounted as much as the Bear Stearns contract, and some are purely bright bubbles.

For example, in a short bet on Indymac Bank (Indy_Mac_Bank), Gong Qiuqiu was unaware that Indymac Bank was suddenly seized by federal regulators because he was focusing on Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch at the time. The $500 million contract turned into a piece of waste paper in an instant, and IndyMack Bank let Gong Qiuqiu return with its death. Gong Qiuqiu later stopped the loss in time and sold the $500 million contract at an ultra-low price of $10 million. In this way, after deducting the previous guarantee fee and other expenses, the net profit of the Rose Fund is only hundreds of thousands of dollars.

If it had not been sold at an ultra-low price, the $500 million paper VAM contract would have resulted in a $10 million deficit for the Rose Fund.

If the prediction is accurate, it is not a win, but if you can get real money, you will win.

At present, the Rose Fund has no longer expanded the scale of shorting, but strives to realize the proceeds of shorting, so as not to die with the bitter master like the Indymac Bank contract.

The Rose Fund has a time advantage and a contract advantage, and does not have the capital to fight against the U.S. government. However, the Rose Fund has long relied on the advantage of shorting in advance, attracting a large number of high-end investors in the middle and upper echelons of the US food chain. Among them are Hollywood film and television stars, football and other sports stars, as well as famous hosts, famous writers, famous media people, and more veteran politicians and businessmen and second-generation politicians and businessmen who want to quietly make extra money. This group of high-end investors has no feelings for the rose fund, but they have feelings for the short income of the rose fund. In order to get full short-selling gains, they have been on their own battlefield, pretending to be neutral and criticizing the discrimination of government agencies against the Rose Fund.

Perhaps it is precisely because of this complex background that Treasury Secretary Paulson did not force the dissolution of the Rose Fund in a simple and crude way, but took the opportunity to meet with Wei Dongsheng in person at the Yenching Olympics to negotiate a flexible strategy.

The U.S. government system is very different from that of China, and Paulson was chairman and chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. before becoming secretary of the Treasury. Paulson rarely threatens Wei Dongsheng with executive orders, and is more accustomed to communicating with Wei Dongsheng with a business negotiation mindset, and even occasionally using government advantages as a weight rather than a nirvana to determine the ultimate victory.

Paulson did not hear Wei Dongsheng's ridicule of only allowing Zhang and not falling, and explained his meaning calmly and calmly: "The United States is a free market, and there will never be such restrictions." In fact, the Senate's approval of a $300 billion housing aid bill has drawn a lot of opposition. Administrative interference is always annoying, and if there was any alternative, I would definitely oppose a government bailout. ”

"I have no objection to the Rose Fund shorting profits, on the contrary, I greatly admire the success of the Rose Fund, and I also admire your vision and decisiveness. If you are willing to immigrate to the United States, I can even recommend you to be the CEO of Goldman Sachs. People who can see the future are eligible for a profiteering reward. ”