378 Blind Spot of Straight Line Thinking

"Is it a Chinese nuclear submarine?" Asano exclaimed, as if taken aback by his own judgment.

"I think...... This is the most likely, assuming that a submarine is coming. ”

Next to him, Yamamoto wanted to speak and stopped, probably wanting to ask what the nuclear submarine they mentioned was, but he couldn't help it, it wasn't the first time he heard this term, maybe Asano had said it casually when he pointed out the country before, but it didn't expand, so he decided to be patient and listen to what the two future people had to say first.

"Why is China the most likely?" Asano hurriedly asked, although his intuition completely denied this possibility, but he knew that Makino was serious and must have analyzed it for a long time, so he might as well listen to his opinion first.

"I have analyzed the various signs in the past six months, from what you just mentioned, and from the problems that have arisen, such as the outbreak of the Pearl Harbor war as scheduled, the United States is defenseless, and the Chongqing government does not seem to know about it."

"Well, I'm listening." Asano sneered, his tone not quite convinced.

"The simplest reason is that China has lost all its coastline, so she has to fight against us in a forbearant way. The second reason is that the legitimate regime of China after the war is still only a secessionist regime in the northwest, so it is impossible to get assistance from anywhere. ”

"No, no, if they really exist, just relying on the history they have mastered and releasing a little bit of news can prevent the outbreak of war."

"If you think from China's point of view, what is the direct result of the war not breaking out?"

"What is it?"

"That is, Japan continues to control large swaths of the territory of China, as well as Manchuria and Taiwan, which is probably why, they are not willing to prevent the outbreak of war, but want us to lose the Pacific War." Speaking of this, Makino inevitably felt a little troubled, because his own purpose here was to prevent the war in order to achieve the optimal solution, but it was destroyed by Asano.

"They can go to the United States," Asano said lightly.

"It's just your thoughts. If they don't have self-esteem, they might do it. ”

Makino sneered, this assumption exposed Asano's crampedness and open-mindedness, of course, it was understandable, because he hadn't thought about this possibility before.

"No, no, no, if they are nuclear, why don't they attack the Japanese mainland? Destroy Japanese industry? ”

Asano finally thought of a more favorable point of focus to support his views.

Makino did not answer immediately, and the scene came to a standstill, which encouraged Asano.

"So...... I don't think that any nuclear submarines will follow us, as you say, if a strategic nuclear submarine crosses here, he can launch ten eight * at the industrial zone in Tokyo, completely destroying Japanese industry and mobilization capabilities. ”

"If we assume that the other side is a group of sane and intelligent people," Makino said slowly, "they wouldn't do that if they were committed to finding the optimal solution, rather than being a reckless person." ”

"The optimal solution? Isn't it better to launch nuclear weapons? If there are nuclear bombs with a total yield of more than 10 million tons, what is impossible to reverse. Makino said that this was indeed the best solution in his mind, as if he believed that even if there was a war, Japan could win with the same cunning skills as his knowledge of history.

"Your mind is too simple, and blindly launching an attack is precisely a manifestation of political immaturity." Makino borrowed his strength and took advantage of the situation to tease Asano.

"What is political maturity?"

"True foresight is not to harm oneself and fulfill others."

Asano was silent, and he heard that Makino's words were sarcastic for his short-sightedness. But he couldn't have a seizure for the time being, and he waited for Makino to explain it himself.

"Imperial University calculations show that if that submarine exists, and if it is ruled out that it is an attack nuclear submarine, its tonnage is indeed a strategic nuclear submarine that is not too large. This means that it is the stupidest decision to come out and swear that she exists, because she does not yet constitute a real deterrent to all potential competitors, and will only make herself the target of public criticism. ”

"Oh?"

"The real deterrence is on the launcher, which means that if she runs out of all the equivalents, she has no deterrence. Therefore, they can not launch much yield, and it is simply impossible to tear down the old Japanese militaristic system, the Japanese army and navy, the old police system and press control once and for all, as the Allies did when they landed on the Japanese mainland, and it is impossible for Japan to withdraw from Chinese territory, Taiwan and Manchuria, let alone establish a new international order. ”

"I have reservations about your judgment. Nuclear weapons are a deterrent force ahead of their time, with a yield of several million tons, and I don't think there is anything that cannot be done. ”

The rest of the room was stupid, they didn't know what they were talking about, only to hear them say that a third of it could destroy the industrial circle of the Japanese capital and destroy the war potential. Listen to them, if the force of the future is thrown over and over the past, the whole world will be destroyed

"Not to mention that building an international order that is beneficial to China cannot be solved by nuclear bombs, first of all, to establish deterrence, then she must do two things." Makino said.

"What two things?"

"The first step is to prove her capabilities, according to your straight line logic, of course, is to launch a third of the nuclear weapons at Japan to destroy Japan's war potential, and at the same time prove its strength, of course, to retain most of it as a deterrent. The second step is to surface and swear to exist, so that it can form a deterrent and deter Japan and other potential competitors. ”

Asano was silent, according to what he had just thought, this was indeed the most direct and effective method.

"But in this era, China doesn't even have a port to call at, have you ever thought about that? Even if Japan's local industry is hit, it can still be rebuilt, and the Japanese garrison in China is still a million dollars, and they probably won't throw those things at home. In addition, Japan has one of the world's top three fleets, which is enough to ensure that the Chinese army, whether it is in Chongqing or northern Shaanxi, will not be able to seize a coastal area that can be supplied to her. Worst of all, they will make all the warring powers stop and keep an eye on them, while their homeland is still too weak and agrarian to provide any protection. ”

"What's the big deal? You can go to Vladivostok or Hawaii for supplies, ask for help and alliances, I don't believe that the allies will treat them badly, the allies will only be afraid of them. ”

"All I said, if this gang really exists, they are definitely smarter than you. Have you ever wondered what is the biggest advantage of a nuclear submarine trailing behind? ”

"I ......"

"Don't ask, all you can think of is a linear intervention using the mastery of history, a linear counterattack using the power of a nuclear bomb, if you are not so straight, you can see that another advantage of submarines is concealment. And with the fact that, if intervened, changes the history of the process; Or unlike a nuclear bomb with one less, this advantage can be continued forever and can be a multiplier for the other two effects. ”

Asano was silent, putting aside Makino's belittling of him, he felt that Makino's analysis actually had loopholes, but he couldn't find the problem for a while. This discussion was really unfair to him, because he simply didn't have time to think about it.

"No, no, this is still too ridiculous, it is impossible for anyone to endure it for so long, I know the Chinese, they are all shallow and ignorant, full of ideas to destroy Japanese arrogance, if they have a huge advantage, they will definitely start as soon as possible." It is impossible to hide, this is not their character. ”

"I see that you really don't understand the Chinese, and you don't understand history, if the Chinese are not good at scheming and forbearance, and act recklessly as you say, how did they stand in the East for thousands of years?" In fact, if you look at the history of East Asia, you will find that China does have a cycle of decline, sometimes it is weak, like a dilapidated house that can be pushed down, and various ethnic groups around it often rise up, quickly occupying the center stage, but no one really replaces it, in fact, most of those rapidly rising ethnic groups have disappeared. It was true that Japan surpassed China in industrialization after the Meiji Restoration, but China after 1949 showed that they could also catch up in industrialization. ”

"I don't want to discuss this matter with you, it's a false proposition at all, there can't be a Chinese nuclear submarine crossing over, and there can't be the United States and Russia, it's impossible."

Asano refused to continue the discussion on this absurd issue. He realized that Makino had used this void problem to set himself up, and he had wasted a lot of words with him stupidly.

"Makino-kun, is this a possibility?" Yamamoto interjected and asked with concern.

"All I can say is that there is a possibility, but not for sure. Dr. Asaga's calculations show that this is possible, but it cannot be ruled out that the distribution of iron ore on the seabed interferes with the initial conditions of the calculation. ”

"So, are there any other signs besides the disappearance of the 1st Division? I always feel that if something so powerful really comes over and wants to turn history around, they must actively do something, and it is impossible to do nothing. There will always be horses' feet. Yamamoto was more scheming than the angry Asano, and his words immediately reminded Makino.

"The clear signs are ...... I remember that the three of us escaped from the bottom of the sea, drifted at sea for a few days, and suddenly encountered the rescue of the Chinese fleet, but the sailors said that they did not find us by chance, they actually came to save the light cruiser Nako. ”

"Yes, it does. The Nako sank not far from Kasugamaru. Onishi replied.

"Another thing is that when we went back to Tokyo, the Izumo sank."

"yes. However, the Military Command Department confirmed that the losses of these two ships were caused by American, British, and Soviet submarines. Onishi said.

"But...... Now that I think about it, I sank twice, and no one was spared, didn't I? ”

Once again, there was a long silence.

"It's not what you think, Izumo was sunk with a complete sighting, and it wasn't a nuclear attack at all." Asano said.

Regarding this point pointed out by Asano, Makino also couldn't figure out how Izumo would have been left with no living people at all if it wasn't for something like a nuclear *, but the destroyer escorting the ship at that time saw the whole process of its sinking. All kinds of signs are indeed ordinary submarine ambushes, most likely the Soviet Union or Britain to provoke a conflict between the United States and Japan.

"Makino-kun, I just want to ask one last question, how likely is the kind of possibility you are talking about." Yamamoto asked solemnly.

"Maybe there is...... Two or three percent. Makino said, he wanted to say more, but the words came to his lips a little less, after all, such a judgment is responsible.

"Two or three?" Yamamoto nodded, as if relieved, he was a gambler after all, and two or three percent was still in a negligible range for him, "Makino-kun, if there is really such a thing coming, is there no way to eliminate her at all?" ”

"It's not really, there are some ready-made MK46s on the Kasuga Maru, which are a little less powerful, but one is enough to bring a 10,000-ton submarine to the surface. If it exists. In addition, there must be a low-altitude, low-speed aircraft that uses magnetic detectors for guidance. ”

Ringanqiang, Myanmar.

Chu Aiyun was sending people around to search for parts to repair his tanks, and a day's long journey caused some tanks to be lost, but fortunately the Japanese retreated, so that he could recover and repair them. Those 221 reconnaissance vehicles, from 37 years onwards, have been completely cut off from the supply of parts, but he found that the 7th Brigade actually abandoned a rear maintenance plant, from tractors to cranes, and even all kinds of machine tools, which can produce parts according to the drawings. He asked Zhou Youfu to quickly drive away the Indian sappers who were installing * and snatch things back. Since the British don't want it, he has to pick it up.