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Two days later, Lu Zhengdong walked out of the room with a pair of eyes that were as red as rabbits and black as pandas.

"If they attack the foreign exchange market, what will the HKMA do?"

The HKMA official replied firmly:

"This trick Soros has been used many times in Southeast Asia, where does their Hong Kong dollar come from? If they are not borrowing from the banks here, then they will raise the interbank lending rate sharply, strictly control the short-term lending quota, so that he cannot borrow and cannot borrow, and throw out the US dollar to buy the Hong Kong dollar, tighten liquidity, and cut off the source of Hong Kong dollars. ……”

Lu Zhengdong nodded:

"This is the most effective way to deal with an attack on the exchange rate, and Hong Kong's strength is in the financial services sector, and if the Hong Kong dollar depreciates and the linked exchange rate cannot be maintained, international investor confidence will collapse. It is Hong Kong's basic policy to defend the linked exchange rate at all costs, and to defend the Hong Kong dollar, the renminbi must also be strong. Both the central government and the SAR government must defend the linked exchange rate system, both at the economic and political levels, and Soros is sure that the Hong Kong government will do so. ”

"You mean that Soros's attack on the exchange rate is fake, but it is actually placed in the stock market and futures market?"

is worthy of being an elite in the industry, and he understood the true meaning of his words at once, Lu Zhengdong nodded:

"Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia have fallen under the currency crisis, which has formed a great psychological pressure in the minds of many people, but this alone is not enough for Hong Kong, because Hong Kong's fundamentals are much better than those of the above-mentioned countries and regions, and they should further attack the foreign exchange markets of other peripheral countries and regions to exert more direct and psychological and practical pressure on the Hong Kong dollar - such as Taiwan.

Although Taiwan and Hong Kong are not closely linked in terms of economy and other aspects, Taiwan's foreign exchange reserves are also very large, equivalent to the total foreign exchange reserves of Southeast Asian countries. If Taiwan's foreign exchange market can plummet and the new Taiwan dollar suddenly depreciates or even abandons its defense, then it will give people the strongest impact -- if Taiwan can fall, why can't Hong Kong lose? This will definitely cause great panic in the market. Rumours that the linked exchange rate system is not guaranteed are certainly flying. ”

Lu Zhengdong glanced at everyone:

"With this domino effect intensifying. Any central bank defending the exchange rate is certainly the first option, right? ”

Everyone present nodded.

"However, Hong Kong implements a currency board system pegged to the US dollar, like the gold standard, and the note-issuing banks must hand over the equivalent US dollar as collateral when issuing Hong Kong dollars, and Hong Kong has given up control over monetary policy. In full sync with the Fed's monetary policy, the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar fluctuated within a very small range of $7.8. With this connection, as long as Hong Kong has sufficient foreign exchange reserves and does not secretly issue Hong Kong dollars, the Hong Kong dollar is almost equivalent to the US dollar. Hong Kong, on the other hand, has nearly $100 million in foreign exchange reserves and is in a sound financial position, which does not provide a basis for Zài's attack on its linked exchange rate system. At this point, Soros, who swept through many countries by waging currency wars, and even Britain was defeated under his hands, should be quite clear that he cannot seek greater benefits through guò Hong Kong dollar forward foreign exchange swaps, so what is his purpose in attacking the Hong Kong dollar?"

Lu Zhengdong said and took out the number of the Hang Seng Index:

"Let's take a look at the Hang Seng Index, in August '90. The Hang Seng Index was only 2,918 points, and after that, due to the influx of international funds such as Morgan Stanley. As a result, the Hang Seng Index began to soar, breaking through the 10,000-point mark at the end of '93. In 94 years, it hit a new high, which lasted more than three years, and the increase reached more than three times, and it began to decline.

And as the return of power is approaching. Many uncertainties in political and economic affairs have gradually been removed, and investors are confident in Hong Kong's future. In '96, Hong Kong's major markets were actively traded. On June 20 this year, it exceeded 15,000 points, and reached the highest point in August, an increase of 6.5 times compared with 90 years, which lasted seven years.

If, before this, the shareholders firmly believe that after the return of the government can not let the big fall, will affect the image of the government, so they are brave to gamble, then in the case of the previous Southeast Asian financial crisis, the Hang Seng Index strangely did not fall but rose, and in August also reached a record high, on the surface, this is the international capital fleeing from Southeast Asia into Hong Kong, thus further pulling up the Hang Seng Index, but why? Aren't they worried about the Hang Seng Index being affected? This is obviously somewhat strange. But if you look at it from another angle, this is easy to explain, will this be the opening period for them to short the Hang Seng Index?

How heavy is the bubble of the Hang Seng Index? All of you here are connoisseurs, and this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to short!

The attack on the linked exchange rate has created a sense of insecurity among Hong Kong residents and foreign investors, and they will definitely sell Hong Kong dollar assets, which in itself will weigh on the decline of the Hang Seng Index, and the other party's concentrated selling of the Hong Kong dollar in the short term can itself temporarily raise the interest rate under the currency board system, which will further exert downward pressure on the Hang Seng Index. In the short term, the pressure on this currency and the sale of stocks will further suppress the Hang Seng Index, and the adoption of such defensive measures will inevitably further aggravate the situation, and the stock market will be in two words: a sharp fall! ”

Mr. Kwa from the Hong Kong government also said:

"The intention to go up and then short is obvious, which we have always been concerned about, and we also know that the Hang Seng Index is out of touch with the fundamentals of the market. But we believe that since there is a bubble in the stock market, the market will automatically squeeze it out......",

Lu Zhengdong nodded:

"Use the mechanism of the market to solve the problem, this is the market economy, especially the magic weapon of the free economy, but the other party will not let the stock market come down step by step according to your assumptions, they will take the most crazy destructive way on this basis, not only to squeeze out the bubble, but also to tear the core, so that they can maximize the benefits, this has been revealed, they are doing this in Southeast Asia, so for Hong Kong, they will be more attentive, will be more careful, Because the countries in Southeast Asia that Soros and other international speculators faced before, no matter in any respect, they could not be compared with Hong Kong at all, so they were almost plundering with open fire, and it was difficult for such a simple strategy in Hong Kong to work. But if Hong Kong can be captured, the benefits will be much greater than in Southeast Asia. That's their biggest motivation. ”

"The Hang Seng Index is at such a high level. It's too tempting, everyone will be worried about this piece of fat, in their opinion, the real market index of the Hang Seng Index may be at the point before Morgan Stanley's entry in '93, and that is the final bottom line for them to stop attacking. Hong Kong, on the other hand, has a liberal economic policy. If the government adopts a policy of non-intervention, they can arbitrarily block the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate over and over again, thereby suppressing the stock market again and again, and the Hang Seng Index will fall again and again. So they returned home again and again in the stock market, and really used Hong Kong as their ATM.

The stock market will fall again and again, and the property market will fall again and again, and the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar is obviously higher than that of Asian currencies that have depreciated, which will inevitably lead to deflation, declining demand, increased unemployment, market depression, and the entire economy is in a severe recession. The result is that bank interest rates remain high, the stock market and the property market collapse across the board, and it is not until Hong Kong's vitality is seriously damaged that it will really launch the final blow to the linked exchange rate.

Therefore, if resolute measures are not taken, within a year, Hong Kong's economy will face the danger of being cut off, and the consequences can be imagined. It must be worse than Thailand, and these people made a lot of money in the end and left calmly. Even if decisive measures are taken at the last minute to finally repel the speculators, Hong Kong will be greatly damaged......"

"So I think they mainly feint the foreign exchange market in the early stage, and the main battlefield is to short stocks and futures. This round of time will be the first round of attacks on Hong Kong between October 20 and 28 October. On October 20, it is clear to all of you what this means......"

October 20th, this is a very special day, October 19th 10 years ago. The Wall Street stock market crash in the United States has spread all over the world. The financial market panic and the ensuing recession in the late 80s led to a sharp fall in Hong Kong on October 20, forcing it to announce a suspension of trading for several days, making it the only major stock market in the world to suspend trading on October 20.

So every day in the past decade, investors around the world have been habitually anxious, and Hong Kong is no exception.

The choice of this date, first of all, gave a strong psychological hint, and the choice of this day, there is another meaning, October 20 is Monday, and October 28 is the settlement date of Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index futures October contract, international speculators must hand in a large number of futures orders before expiration, there is enough time.

Lu Zhengdong's words made everyone fall into deep thought, and it took a while before someone asked:

"Is there anything credible that proves that they are focused on shorting stock market futures?"

Such a possibility is well known to those present. However, if there is a deviation in judgment and there is a problem with the linked exchange rate, the consequences will be unimaginable.

"Don't look at me, hurry up and check whether there is an abnormal increase in the Hang Seng Index futures expiration contract during this time, so that it will be clear, especially beware of their use of over-the-counter options contracts to disguise their sniping deployment, so that the sniping can achieve a surprise and stormy effect, and you must also pay attention to this aspect ......"

Now that the time is determined, it is not too difficult to determine the traces of international speculators' futures contracts.

Sure enough, the staff of the Hong Kong government did not take much time to find out this time, and they all looked extremely ugly.

"They have been shorting the Hong Kong dollar and the Hang Seng Index on a large scale in October, which is larger than what we have before, and the main funds are still in the Hang Seng Index!"

While everyone was frightened, they also looked happy, because the other party's choice did not seem to be a desperate gamble, but a reservation, if it lasted longer, the Hong Kong government would be more difficult to deal with.

Lu Zhengdong was silent for a long time before saying:

"Sing long first, buy short orders and then sing short, through guò financial manipulation, before the return of Hong Kong to the sky to hit the stock price, so as to take a plunge after the return to the way to ship, this is very clear, they expect to launch an attack on the Hong Kong foreign exchange market will cause a chain reaction, so as to carry out a three-dimensional layout, on the one hand, increase the bet in various markets, for speculation; On the other hand, once the speculation is successful, it can be fully harvested, matching the high return to the speculative risk it bears. ”

Everyone present is also well aware of the weakness of the linked exchange rate, that is, if you want to block the linked exchange rate at the lowest cost, you must tighten the monetary system, reduce the circulation of money, raise the lending rate of peers, and increase the cost of speculators.

"So in a word, in a word. We should no longer have any luck mentality, nor should we fantasize that a war would be a decisive victory, but we should be prepared to fight a protracted war, not so much to defend the stock market and foreign exchange market, but to defend a city. and how to act about it. It's up to all of you, I believe in a bright future for Hong Kong tourism......"

Lu Zhengdong did not say what measures to be taken in order to implement foreign exchange controls. The second is to announce the decoupling of the linked exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar, and the third is to intervene in the market, not to mention the side effects of foreign exchange control. And if it is announced that the Hong Kong dollar will be decoupled from the US dollar, it will be tantamount to surrendering and allowing others to ravage, and the only way to intervene in the market is to fight with Soros.

However, even if it is to intervene in the market, it is difficult for the Hong Kong government and Hong Kong people who have always believed in economic liberalism as an economic port to choose, not to mention that it has just been attacked, and its serious consequences have not yet appeared, which is even more difficult to make clear in Hong Kong people and financial circles.

But. Now that the opponent's main attack direction, main battlefield, and means and measures have been figured out, these financial elites will definitely be able to come up with a way to give the opponent a head-on blow without being saddled with the so-called violation of the rules of the game and the infamy of entering the market to intervene.

A few days later, Lu Zhengdong received a notice from the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government asking him to return to Beijing with senior financial officials of the Hong Kong government. Although the Hong Kong government is clear about the motives and operational strategies of the other side this time, given the menacing nature of the opponent this time, the Hong Kong government is worried that its foreign exchange reserves may not be able to cope with a possible financial attack on its own, and it needs the support of the central government. Moreover, how the two sides support and how to link also needs to be coordinated.

The group arrived in the capital very secretly. The central government attaches great importance to the situation that has been ascertained, agrees with the strategy that the Hong Kong government is about to adopt, and has stated as always, that the central government will spare no effort to fully support China's foreign exchange reserves. Lu Zhengdong also returned to Hong Kong.

On Friday, October 17, as Lu Zhengdong said before, the new Taiwan dollar was abandoned and depreciated sharply, and Hong Kong immediately felt the breath of black clouds crushing the city, and as soon as the weekend passed, Monday was like a magic spell on October 20, if the financial officials of the Hong Kong government still had a trace of luck, with the abandonment of the new Taiwan dollar, a financial war was inevitable.

Sure enough, on October 20, the atmosphere of terror did not appear on the Wall Street stock market. The Jones index rebounded 74 points on the day after falling 210 points last week. On the other side of the world, Hong Kong stocks began to fall, rumors in the market continued, on the same day, some institutions reminded the Hong Kong dollar to worry, and the withdrawal of its customers, which further exacerbated the panic in the market, fortunately, these news need the cooperation of the stock market downward, and it is not too early to appear, so at the close of the day, the Hang Seng Index did not fall sharply, but everyone knows that the decline of the Hang Seng Index on the 21st is inevitable, just how much it falls.

Early in the morning of the 21st, the stock market began to sell goods steadily and steadily, pressing the Hang Seng Index to continue to accelerate its decline, triggering a panic of the crash, and countless scattered people who joined in the flight for their lives, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 365 points on the same day.

In the foreign exchange market, the Hong Kong government began to tighten monetary policy, raise the interbank lending rate, and said that maintaining the pegged exchange rate with the US dollar was regarded as a lifeline, and even did not hesitate to raise interest rates at the expense of the stock market and the property market to block the hardline momentum of swearing to defend to the death.

In fact, it has always paid attention to the increase in the interbank lending rate and is ready to regulate and control it at any time.

Since the Hong Kong government has figured out the opponent's hole cards, just like the other party's smokescreen in the foreign exchange market, the Hong Kong government has also set up a ** array in the foreign exchange market, and the interbank lending rate on that day has not actually risen much, and in the stock market, it is silent, not tray, and allows the other party to suppress and dominate the market and paralyze the opponent.

On the 22nd, the stock market continued the downward trend of the previous day at the opening, and due to the concern about the prospect of the Hong Kong dollar, the stock market was further exacerbated, and speculators also began to tentatively add fuel to the fire, as soon as the opening of the Hang Seng Index soared, at the same time, the HKMA, which ostensibly wanted to raise the interbank lending rate, took the opportunity to announce the total balance of the banking system, so that the market fully understood that the supply of the Hong Kong dollar was sufficient, which made market participants puzzled, and for a while they could not understand whether the Hong Kong government wanted to stabilize the foreign exchange market or the stock market.

However, this kind of operation has not made the interbank lending rate have not been pulled up much, and there has begun to be a mysterious fund, in the afternoon silently put a lot of large orders to collect all the orders, no matter what the subject and what type, as long as it is a large order, all take it, this stock is very different, in the leaking stock market seems to be light, as if nothing happened.

The unique expression of this fund immediately attracted the attention of the market and aroused the imagination of market participants. It is speculated that Chinese-funded institutions have begun to tray, stimulated by this, market confidence has recovered, and the stock market has finally stopped the downward trend like a wild horse. On the 22nd, the Hang Seng Index closed slightly higher. The decline throughout the day was only more than 400 points.

This stock of funds is indeed bought by Chinese-funded institutions, but in fact, the amount of buying is not large, the purpose is to test how the market will respond if it enters the market on a large scale. At the same time, it is also a knock on the speculators, and this purpose has been achieved.

In the first three days, the Hang Seng Index fell by only nearly 800 points, and there was no collapse, at most it was only a small shock, which shows that this series of measures has achieved initial results. This is the necessary conditions for the next few days to go all out in the stock market to stop the creation of Zào.

However, this series of measures taken by the Hong Kong government is actually a false reality, making it difficult for the other side to truly understand its true intentions......

But this also gives the speculators a false impression, the Hong Kong government seems to be a two-line defense, so it is difficult to do, while doubting, but also feel that this is an opportunity, all kinds of signs show that the speculators after the temptation finally can't hold back, in the 22nd to sell the Hong Kong dollar and the Hang Seng Index. This means that on the 23rd, it is likely that they will storm the foreign exchange market and thus hit the Hang Seng Index......

"Mr. Lu, hard work, ...... tomorrow"

Mr. Ke, an official of the Hong Kong government's finance department, said to Lu Zhengdong. His face was solemn.

After Lu Zhengdong arrived in Hong Kong, he and Mr. Ke worked together the most, and the two were the most familiar with each other, and occasionally had some exchanges outside of work, and the relationship was not bad.

In the actual operation at this stage, Lu Zhengdong was not involved. But in it, Lu Zhengdong also felt the changes in the financial market very strongly. Like a confusing chess game, Lu Zhengdong finally understood that a single mistake by an operator of a foreign bank could lead to billions of dollars in losses and even bankrupt the bank he worked for. Because even a few ten-thousandths of a fluctuation can cause huge trading profits or losses, it is undoubtedly an extremely exciting and risky challenge for chess players who want to master it, but the pressure can also be imagined......

Lu Zhengdong also knew the meaning of Mr. Ke's words, although those measures will help stabilize the stock market and confuse opponents, but maintaining the abundant supply of Hong Kong dollars and the low interbank lending rate also means that the Hong Kong government will invest a lot of money in the sniper war in the foreign exchange market that will start on the next 23rd, which inevitably makes people a little worried......

"You guys work hard, it's not easy to do this job."

Lu Zhengdong paused and said:

"I understand Mr. Ke's mood at this time, on the one hand, it is contrary to the principles and concepts of your and many of your colleagues and what they have learned all their lives, and they are not facing the pressure of international public opinion and public opinion in Hong Kong; On the other hand, the international financial predators are about to use Hong Kong as an ATM, especially from an ATM. And if this is wrong, it will harm Hong Kong, how to explain it to the Hong Kong people, the chief executive, and the supporting countrymen and the central government? ”

Mr. Ke was a little surprised and said:

"I didn't expect you to understand our mentality so well, to be honest, at this moment, it's really hard to say."

Lu Zhengdong nodded, didn't speak, and asked for a while:

"How do you think the United States would respond if these speculators were attacking the United States?"

Lu Zhengdong glanced at Mr. Ke and asked, Mr. Ke shook his head and was silent.

"The U.S. government will just destroy them!"

Lu Zhengdong said directly. Mr. Ke looked at him in amazement, obviously finding his statement a little incomprehensible.

Of course, this is just an assumption, these guys don't have the courage to directly and blatantly confront the United States, but the more and more developed derivative financial instruments, causing great financial prosperity at the same time, will also bring great hidden dangers, the so-called things must be reversed, prosperity must decline, capital is greedy, Wall Street people are even more greedy, although they dare not blatantly do it against the United States, but the nature of being too greedy is the same everywhere, a cycle of ten years, the result of laissez-faire, next time it may be the turn of the United States, I think at that time, the United States will simply drive them out! In this world, there are things to hold onto, but it will never remain the same......"

Lu Zhengdong looked at Mr. Ke, who was still a little silent, and smiled:

"Or, let's make a bet, if I really say, you invite me to dinner, otherwise, I invite you to dinner, how about it?"

"Ten years from now, who knows what I'll become? Still, I agreed......"

Lu Zhengdong smiled again:

"Ten years is not too long, maybe you don't serve the people of Hong Kong in this position, maybe you are an ordinary citizen, but no matter what position you are in, you should be proud to be a part of it today......

!