On 20 March, the United States, circumventing the United Nations Security Council, launched a military operation against Iraq by a joint force dominated by British and American troops, mainly the British and American troops, and unilaterally launched a military strike against Iraq on 2 on the grounds that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction and secretly supported terrorists.

But such an absolute headline was quickly suppressed by one word, which became the first focus of the media, and this word was called "SARS". This word hangs over the heads of the Chinese people like a ghost, and it has crossed the ocean and caused the whole world to talk about the tiger.

Generally speaking, there are two kinds of diffusion of crises, one is the geographical diffusion, such as from the coast to the capital; The other is the diffusion of types, such as from the social level to the economic level, and to the level of international relations, and the diffusion of types brings more problems and has a greater impact than the diffusion of geography.

The spring and summer, which were unusually long due to SARS, have finally passed, but the negative impact on the domestic and Asian economies is already being felt. Many believe that SARS may have done more damage to Asia's economic growth than the Iraq war, and certainly had a greater domestic impact on the hardest-hit regions.

In fact, while the shadow of "SARS" has not disappeared, the country is already studying the possible impact on the economy, although such a meeting has not been made public, and after the global travel ban on domestic travel has been lifted, a meeting has been convened at the national level to discuss countermeasures.

At the meeting, the two points of view were hotly debated.

One opinion goes: The economic impact of the crisis has been enormous. The most directly affected is that tourism and tourism-related industries have been severely hit. According to a survey by the Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center. Since April, the occupancy rate of hotels has dropped by half compared with the same period last year, and the occupancy rate of five-star hotels, which are mainly business guests, has dropped by 60% compared with the same period last year. From this, we can imagine the losses suffered by the aviation industry, the catering industry, and tourist attractions.

At the same time, telephone interviews with multinational companies found that these companies have banned their employees from traveling to China, and that their business operations in China have been affected by different procedures.

And surveys of domestic enterprises show. Most of these companies have taken steps to reduce domestic business travel, and interviews with residents show that more than 70 percent of these residents have canceled travel plans and reduced shopping or party activities.

The impact on tourism and its related impacts is only a precursor, after which there will be trade, then investment, and the exchange between the world and the rest of the world will be passed on in a chain of successive reductions in the flow of people, goods, and capital, and at the same time, domestic consumption will also decrease.

This will have a series of negative consequences. Some companies have seen their revenues and profits fall if the situation cannot be brought under control in the near future. Salary cuts, layoffs and even bankruptcy can be a last resort for these companies. If we consider that SARS has the most direct impact on the service industry, and the service industry is the main force in absorbing labor in central cities, the pressure on employment is even greater.

And these people take the Asian financial crisis of '98 as an example, when the government introduced a series of macroeconomic policies to stimulate economic growth in order to ensure the growth target of Bao Ba, and all sectors of society also made great efforts. Despite this, the domestic economy in '98 barely maintained a growth rate of 7.8 and failed to achieve the growth target set at the beginning of the year.

For these reasons, it is proposed to use monetary leverage, adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, and increase investment in fixed assets to stimulate economic growth.

Lu Zhengdong disagreed, and after seeing that many people were basically inclined to adopt such a policy, he finally spoke:

"The impact of SARS on the domestic economy is objectively existing, and the industries affected by SARS are mainly tertiary industries such as tourism, such as tourism-related industries will indeed have some downturn this year, but these industries do not account for a high proportion of the domestic economy, which is not enough to pose a huge threat to the normal development of the domestic economy, in fact, the impact of SARS on the domestic economy is mainly in the second quarter of population flow was suppressed, and the economic growth slowed down in the second quarter, according to what I understand. Growth in the second quarter is expected to fluctuate around 6.5 percentage points.

However, this pressure is not enough to change the trend of our country's economic development in a fundamentally good way, because even if the second quarter is conservative and estimated at 6.5 percent, counting the growth rate of nearly 10 percent in the first quarter, the actual growth rate in the first half of the year will also exceed 8 percent.

However, this kind of diving is just a scary, such an emergency, will have a greater impact on our lives, and the impact on the economy, I think the impact is not as big as the negative impact of the Asian financial crisis in 98, after all, this is a very short time limit of emergencies, with SARS has become a thing of the past, social life has returned to normal, from the perspective of inertia, the growth rate of up to 10% in the first quarter, even if it is affected by SARS, that is, a fork, Next, it is necessary to grow upwards according to inertia; From the perspective of the market, due to the impact of the second quarter related enterprises will find a way to recover losses in the second half of the year, not to mention, the local government will do everything possible to make up for the loss of the embankment, and will definitely take various measures to ensure growth, from the fundamentals of economic development, SARS did not pose a heavy threat and impact on it, if the central government from the macro level to the economy to a large stimulus, especially the large-scale fixed asset investment stimulus, even if the second quarter growth is affected, I am afraid that the economic growth for the whole of this year will still exceed double digits, and even reach 11 percent.

Once this happens, there is a great risk of economic overspeed, and next year we will have to step on the brakes, and everyone knows the results of stepping on the brakes.

We overheated once in '88 and once in '92 and '93, and the two economic overheating caused a great impact on the national economy, especially the latter overheating, which led to strict inflation and a large number of unfinished buildings, which made people feel palpitations.

And now our country's economy is bigger, and if we hit the brakes sharply, the losses will definitely be greater than the previous two times. The short-term and long-term losses are certainly much greater than this emergency.

And more importantly, it will disrupt our entire plan for development and reform. It is all the more prudent on the point of investment in fixed assets. The central government has reached a consensus that the current economic growth is becoming more and more dependent on investment, which is not a healthy way to develop, and the sustainability of consumption-led growth is relatively better, and it is also conducive to the country's strategic economic growth, transformation and upgrading, if this rhythm is disrupted, the loss will be greater.

Therefore, my view is that the overall arrangements for the economic work of the central government at the beginning of the year should not be completely overturned because of such an impact, and it can be appropriately revised, and there should be reservations in the policies to stimulate economic growth, such as monetary policy and fixed asset investment, which can only be said to be moderate stimulus. Give confidence to the market, let the people feel at ease, and unite themselves; Even if it is to be stimulated on a large scale, it cannot be withdrawn all at once, and it can be rolled out step by step, and we can see whether the economic development in July and August in the third quarter really continues the downward pressure in the second quarter and then decide whether to introduce some policies and measures, so that the time is also timely and relatively safe. ”

Everyone knows that this kind of fixed asset investment is not good for growth, but this is the fastest and most direct effect, so we know that it is not good. In the end, you still have to use this method, and in the end, you will become a habit. In 08, a 4 trillion stimulus plan was launched, and such a stimulus has a lot of consequences.

As soon as Lu Zhengdong's voice fell, someone immediately retorted:

"So what do you think the growth rate in the third quarter can be?"

After all, the new leadership collective only officially debuted at the end of last year, and the new government was just formed at the people's congress in March. There must be no good fruit to eat, so some people are in such a mentality, either they don't talk about it, or they support such a policy, so Lu Zhengdong has become the first person to be wary of economic speed.

Lu Zhengdong is very clear, in the midst of a worry about the slowdown of growth, such a voice is obviously a little lonely, but Lu Zhengdong is confident, he is very clear about the economic growth rate in the second half of 03 years, the third quarter exceeded 9 percent, the fourth quarter was as high as nearly 10 percent, and the result reached a record high of 9.1 in the whole year, so he said very calmly:

"July should be able to recover to more than 8 percent, and the most conservative for the whole quarter can be 8.5 percent, optimistic, 9 percent."

July's economic growth is actually of great significance, and even if stimulus measures are taken, July will not yet be apparent, and its growth figures are relatively accurate and objective, and it is a barometer of whether the economy will continue to rise or continue to decline.

Of course, Lu Zhengdong is not just talking about numbers, even if he knows such a result, he still needs something strong to prove his point, and this is almost three months because many other things cannot be carried out, he has not learned much about this information, one by one, very convincing.

Lu Zhengdong's remarks have also been affirmed by several economic leaders, and the one-sided situation of the meeting has been changed from a certain process, but the debate is still very fierce, and the people who insist on quickly launching a stimulus package are still in the majority, but the top management has also adopted some of his opinions, and Lu Zhengdong also knows that it is unrealistic to want to completely avoid stimulus measures, and the top management can accept some of his opinions to introduce stimulus measures step by step, which has achieved the goal.

At the beginning of July, the state launched a series of economic stimulus plans, which were much lower than expected, but the market reaction was very strong, because the spokesman said at a press conference that the central government believes that such a stimulus plan is moderate, which sends a strong message to the outside world, that is, the new leadership is full of confidence in economic development.

Lu Zhengdong is also busy, the Western International Expo, which was supposed to be held in Xihe in May, has been postponed for some reason, and this year's situation is particularly special, the West China Expo is the first large-scale international conference, and its success has a great impact.

Originally, the Western Expo was hosted by the Council for the Promotion of International Trade, the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office, and Xihe Province, but this conference was co-sponsored by the Western Affairs Office, the Council for the Promotion of International Trade, the Overseas Chinese Affairs Office, the Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, the General Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives, and the thirteen provinces and municipalities of Xihe, that is, the hosting mode of seven + thirteen provinces and cities of ministries and commissions. The opening ceremony will be attended by a number of national leaders, including the Deputy General Manager and the Vice Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, more than 20 ministerial-level officials, as well as the Chief Executive of Hong Kong and Macao, officials of the HKTDC, and foreign dignitaries such as the rotating chairmen and secretary-general of ASEAN.

Lu Zhengdong, as the main leading member of the organizing committee, should also actively cooperate and coordinate. It is also necessary to help persuade more foreign investment, as well as government organizations, industrial and commercial organizations, and entrepreneurs from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan to actively participate in the conference. It's also busy enough.

The conference invited more than 40,000 domestic and foreign businessmen, government delegations from 37 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) and sub-provincial cities, and 50 economic and trade delegations to participate in the conference. The actual number of participants and visitors reached 350,000.

The conference set up two comprehensive pavilions and seven professional pavilions for national, regional and regional cooperation, covering industrial manufacturing, high-tech, tourism and culture, characteristic agriculture, energy and chemical industry, and other fields.

The conference held various forms of business fairs, promotion meetings, matchmaking meetings, economic and trade weeks, national days, cultural and sports exchanges and other activities.

As well as the "Symposium on the Development of the Western Region", "International Forum on the Strategic Development of China's Famous Brands", "China-Southeast Asia Entrepreneurs Conference", and "China Intellectual Property Forum", which have built a good platform for Chinese and foreign enterprises to strengthen cooperation and exchanges, and signed a large number of agreements......

After the end of the West China Expo, Lu Zhengdong did not return to the capital immediately. Instead, the expedition continued on the West River......

After taking a shower, Liang Mei changed into a silk nightgown and leaned on the sofa, casually pressing the remote control board and adjusting the TV channel.

The Bei Lake side is afraid of the torrential rain, so that all the flights from Xihe to Beihu Lake are canceled, and the Xihe side is the scorching sun, which makes her a little uncomfortable. It's very embarrassing that Liang Mei can only let the air conditioner be left on all night, and only in this way can she sleep peacefully one night. It's just that when I wake up in the morning, I have an indescribable feeling of dizziness in my head.

Liang Mei also came to participate in the West China Expo, which is a political task, and almost all provinces and cities in the country have sent high-level delegations to participate in the meeting.

The announcer of Xihe News Network always gave Liang Mei a little accent, which is impossible, after all, it is a provincial TV station.

"This afternoon, Xin Kaishan, Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee, and Lin Dongchen, Deputy Secretary of the Provincial Party Committee and Governor of the Province, met with Lu Zhengdong, a member of the Party Group of the National Development and Reform Commission and deputy director of the Western Affairs Office, who came to Xihe to participate in the West China Expo and conduct investigation and research on Xihe. The guest and the host had a conversation in a rather friendly atmosphere, Governor Lin expressed his gratitude to the deputy director of Zhengdong for his support to Xihe in the preparation and organization of the West China Expo, and expressed his gratitude to the Western Affairs Office for its strong support for the work of Xihe Province in recent years, and hoped that Deputy Director Lu would come to Xihe this time to investigate and investigate a complete success, and put forward suggestions and opinions on the development of Xihe, Governor Lin Dongchen also introduced the economic development of our province for more than a year, and the Standing Committee of the Provincial Party Committee and Executive Vice Governor Jiang Zhiyang, Vice Governor Guan Qunshan and leaders of relevant departments attended the meeting. ”

Liang Mei watched TV blankly, Lu Zhengdong she also met, but just a few words of conversation was "snatched" away by others, Liang Mei also knew that Lu Zhengdong had worked in Xihe for many years, so old friends, colleagues and colleagues had to come to visit, and the leaders of other western provinces and cities would not let go of such an opportunity to contact, Lu Zhengdong can be said to be one of the busiest people.

But everyone you want to see should be seen, right?

After thinking about it, Liang Mei took out the phone and called Lu Zhengdong, the phone was connected, but no one answered, Liang Mei put the phone on for a while, and continued to dial, but still no one answered, so she had to put down the phone.

Lu Zhengdong is becoming more and more capable, originally the deputy director of the Western Affairs Office came down, and the provincial governor could be regarded as an exceptional reception when he saw him, and he was the top party and government leader in Xihe to meet with him, which is not an ordinary importance.

Liang Mei has been paying attention to Lu Zhengdong, knowing that he has made a lot of waves in the Western Office, especially on the issue of inspection, which has caused a lot of slander, and even she has heard people in Beihu Province complain in private that this kind of inspection is completely tying everyone's hands and feet, Liang Mei is also very worried about Lu Zhengdong for a while, after all, the Western Office is not like An Xin, any subtle action may be magnified, thus causing a chain reaction, Lu Zhengdong is still too impulsive, if everyone is difficult to accept, in the end, the work promoted by the guide zhì will not be implemented, that would be a big blow to prestige.

Liang Mei also called to ask if it was true, but it was difficult to say such things clearly on the phone, and at the same time, it was not clear in a few words, but Lu Zhengdong's economic inspection system was still effective, at least now many people dare not be as blatant as they used to be on the project.

Although the inspection system has made many people who are a little unrighteous in their hearts very uncomfortable, no matter what, Lu Zhengdong is still doing a good job in the western office, but what about her?

She assisted the provincial governor in charge of the economy in Beihu, and also took some measures and achieved some results, but in a certain way, the development of Beihu is still slow in the whole country, and some different voices have been voiced in the province.

The current governor is still too soft, but fortunately, the governor is quite supportive of her work, otherwise her life would be even more difficult

Liang Mei was pondering when her mobile phone rang on the coffee table...... (To be continued......)