Chapter 196: A deep sense of crisis
When Chen Jiqiao smiled and said goodbye to a group of people, Gao Ziwen and Deng Lin even had a dream, Director Ma had clearly hinted that they would fine-tune some declaration materials, so that they could be more in line with the declaration conditions, and the meaning in the words could not be more obvious, which made the two feel relieved.
Chen Jiqiao left without any nostalgia, and under Deng Lin's complicated gaze, Gao Ziwen waved his hand and left while he was still immersed in endless ecstasy, and he didn't even leave his contact information.
With a gentle wave of your hand, you don't take away a single cloud.
Chen Jiqiao felt that it may be most appropriate to use this poem to describe the mood at the moment, Chen Jiqiao did not want to regain contact, this chance encounter has helped Deng Lin a lot, this kind of help is better to help less, whether the two are classmates or first lovers, the identity of the two people is engaged in business, close to his purpose Chen Jiqiao is very clear, Chen Jiqiao has a very clear understanding of this.
Two relationships that ended without a problem once tortured him, but now it's not entirely a bad thing for him, at least it makes him understand the true meaning of many lives, what he misses has been missed after all, and he can never get back the feeling he had at the beginning, life is always a loss and a gain......
Time flies, and in the blink of an eye, the second half of the year has arrived, and the main figures of the country's economic operation in the first half of the year have been introduced, which can be described as singing and entering.
In the first half of the year, GDP increased by 1.5 percent year-on-year. 0.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Among them, the first quarter increased by 111.1, and the second quarter increased by 11.9. Look at it by industry. The primary industry increased by 947 billion yuan. an increase of four percent; The added value of the secondary industry is more than 5.5 trillion yuan. an increase of 13.6%; The added value of the tertiary industry was more than 4 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6 percent.
The growth rate of investment continued to run at a high level, and investment in the central and western regions maintained rapid growth.
Under such a situation, there is no problem that the country's economic growth rate for the whole year is around 12, and the optimism brought about by such a triumphant advance pervades the whole country, and the provinces are also busy revising their plans for the second half of the year and next year, which makes Lu Zhengdong feel particularly worried, and has a deep sense of crisis -- because the year 08 is imminent.
The top management also feels that such a growth rate has the momentum of economic overheating, and a series of measures will inevitably be introduced. Quelling this momentum, but the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has made such regulation null and void.
In 08, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States evolved into a financial crisis and even an economic crisis, but the debt problem in the euro area was plagued by a strong haze, from Greece to Finland, from Spain to Italy, and Central and Eastern Europe, which once became the speed of European development, all fell into difficulties, as the two main battlefields of domestic and foreign trade, the sluggishness of these two regions directly led to the export of the most important link in the troika of domestic development, which greatly hit the export-oriented economy in the coastal areas. However, the policy of stimulating domestic demand requires a long process due to the improvement of the social security mechanism, and it is not possible to see this carriage to carry the sorghum in a short period of time. Then everyone's eyes are only on fixed asset investment.
This is the most common means in the country, when the economic development has fallen into a bottleneck, it seems to have been tried and tested, but the consequences of the double-edged sword The leadership and economists are not unclear, but it seems that they are more inclined to the immediate interests in the trade-off of the pros and cons of some problems, that is, to stimulate economic growth, only when the tiger of inflation is released and frantically bites people's nerves, they will realize that they have overestimated their power to control inflation.
Although the stimulus package is nominally mainly invested in infrastructure construction projects and livelihood projects, it is inevitable that a considerable part of it will continue to flow into the real estate market.
According to the arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference, the central government was supposed to regulate and control real estate in 08, and it can be seen from the chaos of the real estate market and the repeated fall of cadres in the land and construction system reflected in various localities that the lucrative Cheng Cheng Dรน has reached in this market.
However, the stimulus plan was introduced, which also made the central government try to control the housing prices again.
Originally, the regulation policy has also received initial results, but as soon as such a stimulus plan is introduced, it means the death of regulation, which is not only not regulation but a U-turn to push up the real estate market that has already shown a bubble, not to mention the real estate developers and local governments to add fuel to the fire, the vast majority of businessmen are not accounting for this, they just see such a momentum, high profits make them crazy and can not afford to be able to be under the central government's almost high-pressure monitoring means, These people still dare to play tricks in the land construction market, which shows that their profits are high enough to make people crazy, and for real estate developers, the high profits are enough to make them crazy, and for local governments, the higher the land price, the more local fiscal revenue, and housing prices will be like wild horses galloping upward.
High housing prices are a sword hanging over the head, there have been examples before, Japan's real estate bubble burst directly led to the Japanese economy for more than ten years difficult to make an inch, this is clear to everyone, the problem is that the domestic buy up and not buy down herd psychology in real estate is vividly reflected, I am afraid that the house price will rise sharply if it is late, and the speculative investment just needs to desperately drill their heads into it, under the domination of such a strong purchasing power, it is difficult to make housing prices stop......
Of course, Lu Zhengdong's opposition to this plan does not mean that the local provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions are opposed to this plan, and Lu Zhengdong's opposition is based on the macroeconomic policy of the whole country, and for local governments, the benefits brought by this plan for the national economy are obvious, and some plans that have been in a dilemma will finally be finalized, and they can be immediately put into practice, and the provinces that have already made considerable preparations in the early stage suddenly cheered. Moreover, local governments will inevitably introduce their own economic stimulus plans along with the high-profile economic stimulus plans of the central government.
In the short term, it will certainly play an immediate role, but the inflationary pressure brought about by the subsequent fermentation and the vicious expansion of local debt will become an unavoidable big problem.
Lu Zhengdong believes that as inflationary pressures further increase, the development declarations and plans of many provinces, including Yasuhara, will continue to shrink or even collapse, and measures that violate the law of economic development will eventually be retaliated against by the law of economy.
For the whole country, after a few years of stimulus, it has to bear the weakness after the pull. (To be continued......)