Lin Xiao did not go to the base of the secret service, but went directly to Han Shengxian's house.

This time, Han Ya's arrangement was also a little stranger, and she actually took her business back home to deal with it, which made Lin Xiao feel a little surprised, but he didn't feel that this matter was unacceptable.

After all, Han Shengxian may also meet at home, and the question that Han Ya wants to talk about may also have something to do with Han Shengxian, so it is more convenient to talk about things at home.

Otherwise, whether it is in the secret service or on the side of the Military Commission, there will be some trouble.

When Lin Xiao passed, Han Shengxian had already returned, drinking tea on the sofa and watching TV news.

"The old man is so interested." Lin Xiao smiled when he saw it, and then put the bottle of wine he brought over on the table, "Are you interested in taking two sips?" ”

"What kind of wine?" When Han Shengxian heard this, he interjected, "If it's not long enough, I won't drink it." ”

Han Shengxian's drinking is also restricted, first of all, the health doctor does not recommend him to drink so much, and Mrs. Han is also quite opposed to this matter, but when Lin Xiao came over, it seemed that the situation was better.

Of course, as a powerful figure in the Military Commission, Han Shengxian is also relatively picky about alcohol, at least he will never touch those bad wines, and will only drink a little when he encounters good wine.

If he encounters the good wine brought by Lin Xiao, and he is at home, then of course Han Shengxian wants to drink a little more, even if he is drunk, there is Lin Xiao who can help deal with it, and he will not delay things.

"Naturally, it is a good wine, although it is not a big brand, but it is a pure grain and good wine that has been stored for 80 years, and it took a lot of money to buy it." Lin Xiao said with a smile.

When he took out the wine bottle, Han Shengxian's nose couldn't help but move twice.

The wine bottle is really not good-looking, and the seal has been reprocessed, and the style is similar to the ordinary glass bottle during the Anti-Japanese War.

However, just by looking at it, Han Shengxian could almost conclude that this bottle of wine was old enough.

As long as it is a wine made from pure grains, even if it was not a famous wine back then, but the long years of seventy or eighty years are enough to make it very intoxicating.

"Open it and try it." Han Shengxian said.

"Hehe, it's just drinking, so naturally it's going to be opened." Lin Xiao smiled, "I just don't know if there are any suitable appetizers at home?" ”

"Appetizers, yes!" Han Shengxian nodded and said, "The kitchen is preparing a meal, and there are a few roasted pig's trotters, just take a piece to use for wine!" ”

"That's good." Lin Xiao laughed when he heard this.

As the saying goes, drinking wine in a big bowl and eating meat in large pieces, although barbecue food itself contains some not very good substances, such as easy to cause cancer or something, but when it comes to taste, it is indeed refreshing enough, plus this old wine, it is really a great enjoyment of life.

It takes time to roast pig's trotters, and it won't be good for a while, so the two of them are not in a hurry, so they just sit on the sofa and wait for Han Ya while watching TV, while chatting first.

On the TV, the news about the oil issue was being broadcast.

"Recently, the Russian president said that the fall in international crude oil prices could not be ruled out as a conspiracy against Russia. In fact, the main reason for the collapse in oil prices this time is the slowdown in oil demand growth caused by the world economic recession, and conspiracy theories are too weak at every turn. ”

"The main reason for the sharp decline in crude oil prices is the change in supply and demand: on the one hand, the world economy is sluggish, and the growth of crude oil demand is slowing down; On the other hand, the long-term development of shale oil in the United States has led to a sharp increase in its own oil production. ”

"On the demand side, global growth remains weak, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week forecasting global growth from 3 to 3 this year. 4% to 3. 3%。 The weakness of the world economy is also directly reflected in the demand for crude oil: the International Energy Agency, which represents the major international crude oil importers, lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year from 700,000 barrels to 200,000 barrels, the lowest in five years. ”

"On the other hand, under the weak demand, the country's crude oil supply has risen instead of falling. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently increased its total crude oil production sharply to an average of 30.7 million barrels per day: Libya has tripled its crude oil output in the past few months, and Iraq's crude oil exports have not been affected by IS. More importantly, the long-term investment and development of shale oil in the United States has begun to enter a period of rapid production growth, resulting in the average daily crude oil production of the United States this year increased by 13% year-on-year to 8.8 million barrels, about to surpass Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest crude oil producer. ”

"It should be pointed out that the extraction of shale oil is a huge investment and a long construction project, and its core hydraulic fracturing technology was pioneered by an American company as early as 10 years ago. At this point, blaming US private oil companies for suddenly patriotically increasing production and persecuting Russia is clearly paranoia of persecution. ”

"Saudi Arabia, another culprit of conspiracy theories, has no incentive to push crude oil prices down significantly: the current low oil prices mean a $40 billion annual financial loss for Saudi Arabia."

Lin Xiao watched the TV news and immediately laughed.

"It's all official words, and if there is nothing strange in this, Russia will not accelerate its plan to occupy the Arctic." Lin Xiao said to Han Shengxian.

"Yes, now this is a big problem, even the Americans have a headache, it is estimated that they should regret it, using the oil price problem to force Russia, I didn't expect to cause such a huge trouble." Han Shengxian nodded.

Sometimes, the official words on the news really can't be believed.

Ordinary people have too little first-hand information about what is going on in international issues, and they will certainly not be able to draw any correct conclusions just by listening to the news, but if they carefully observe some of the things happening around the world, they can also observe some clues.

For example, Russia's recent pioneering activities in the Arctic have greatly shaken the United Kingdom, the United States, and even Northern Europe.

"The Arctic region is rich in resources and has great potential economic and geostrategic value." "The U.S. Geological Survey report shows that 13 percent of the world's undiscovered but recoverable mineral deposits are in the Arctic. In addition to oil and gas resources, the Arctic region has 1 trillion tons of coal reserves, accounting for 1/4 of the world's coal reserves, in addition to rich fisheries, freshwater and forest resources, as well as copper, zinc, lead, asbestos, diamonds, gold, silver and rare earth and other mineral resources. At present, the world's freshwater resources are becoming increasingly scarce, and the freshwater resources of the Arctic are undoubtedly a valuable asset. Russia is so close to the North Pole, of course, they are close to the water. ”

Lin Xiao listened, nodded, and agreed.

The strategic location of the Arctic is indeed very important, and it has always been the base for the forward deployment of strategic nuclear weapons in the Soviet Union and now Russia and the United States, because the ice in the Arctic makes reconnaissance satellites powerless and provides natural protection for strategic nuclear submarines.

In particular, it is worth mentioning that the frequent ionospheric disturbances in the Arctic region hinder the ability of radar systems to monitor strategic missiles, and submarine hunters find it difficult to perform anti-submarine functions due to the ice.

In fact, after the Cold War, the military position of the Arctic has not weakened, but has strengthened.

"Anyone with a discerning eye can see that Russia's attack on the Arctic is actually expressing great dissatisfaction with the Americans' manipulation of oil prices, which is also a direct means by which they can directly provoke another worldwide dispute." Han Shengxian said.

"Well, the impact of oil prices on Russia is indeed huge, but for us, it is a good thing." Lin Xiao nodded.

The problem with countries like Russia and Iran is that they are too dependent on oil revenues.

According to Deutsche Bank, Russia sells 7.2 million barrels of crude oil to the international market every day, accounting for 45% of Russia's fiscal revenue, and its fiscal profit line is about $102 per barrel.

According to Sberbank's optimistic calculations, if the price of crude oil remains at $90 per barrel, Russia's fiscal revenues will be reduced in 201511. 5%。

Revenues from oil extraction and export account for more than 50% of the Iranian government's revenue, and its fiscal profit and loss line is as high as $135 per barrel.

The decline in crude oil prices due to changes in supply and demand affects the stability of a country's government finances, which is indeed a serious impact on Russia and Iran, which are overly dependent on crude oil exports.

There are also many beneficiaries of the fall in oil prices, in addition to Europe, Japan and India, as well as China.

As the world's largest crude oil importer, China imports an average of 6.4 million tons of oil per day, and imported oil has accounted for 60% of domestic oil consumption.

If the international crude oil price plummeted, the biggest direct beneficiary is Huaxia, if calculated according to the import volume of China's crude oil last year, on this basis, for every $1 drop in oil prices, China can save $2.1 billion, and if the recent drop in oil prices can make the average import oil price drop by $10 this year, then China will be able to save $21 billion.

In addition, India imports about 75% of its energy, and the Indian government and central bank officials are also happy to see the fall in oil prices, as it helps the Indian government reduce the country's huge energy subsidies and ease inflationary pressures.

All of Japan's oil needs to be imported, Europe is also highly dependent on foreign oil, and the global oil price is falling, which is a welcome event for India, Japan and the European Union.

"So when it comes to it, Russia and Iran are the ones who have been cheated the most." Han Shengxian said to Lin Xiao, "In order to express dissatisfaction, Russia can only march to the North Pole, show its military muscles, and provoke the sensitive nerves of the Americans." ”

"Yes, they don't have a better choice than that." Lin Xiao nodded and said.

At this time, the door opened, and Han Ya's voice came in, but the footsteps were from two people, and the other footsteps seemed a little heavy, obviously belonging to a man.

"Huh?" When Lin Xiao heard this, he couldn't help but be a little surprised.