Postscript 2: Joy Coins (I)
In 2047, the fifteenth year of the founding of the Huanxiang Republic, Wang Fengshou's second term will be nearly half. On this day, Tang Senzhi, director of the State Planning Commission and Minister of Finance, received an urgent phone call.
The phone call was made by Hai Lanzhu, the president of Huanxiang Industrial Bank, but it was not an office phone number but a private number. Hai Lanzhu's tone was a little hurried: "Tang Caishen, finally someone came to our bank to run!" ”
The run on the bank was a shocking event, but Tang Senzhi opened his mouth and said: "President Hai, how many times have I reminded you, I have to call Director Tang at work!" ”
Hai Lanzhu: "This is not your personal phone!" Don't worry about this, there are really people who come to run, they have a lot of digital coins issued by us, and they are coming to exchange them for pure gold physical coins. ”
Tang Senzhi: "How much should you be rigorous in speaking about professional questions?" ”
Hai Lanzhu: "Ten million, the net weight of gold is 200 tons!" If they wanted to take it away, they would have to rent at least three large transport planes. ”
For any bank, a run of this scale is an existential crisis, but although Hai Lanzhu's tone was a little hurried, there was no anxiety and panic, but excitement and surprise.
Tang Senzhi's words were even more abnormal: "After waiting for so long, I finally held back a big one!" I'll inform Director Hua now that they're coming. ”
Hai Lanzhu: "There is no need to inform Mr. Hua, others are already in the lobby of the business department of the head office." ”
Tang Senzhi: "Oh, what is Director Hua doing?" ”
Hai Lanzhu: "Wearing a security uniform to maintain order...... Mayor Luo has also arrived, wearing a radiation protective suit and working as an inspector. ”
Tang Senzhi: "Then do it according to the regulations, and stop by to see the excitement when I get off work." ”
Hai Lanzhu: "Director Hua said, pay attention to order and don't allow close onlookers. ”
Tang Senzhi: "I passed through the sales department of your head office, and looked inside the head office, right?" ”
Hai Lanzhu: "We haven't decided whether to work overtime at night yet, we have to negotiate." ”
Tang Senzhi: "I will definitely let you work overtime, and the consortium that can collect 10 million Huanxiang coins will not be so stingy." ”
How could anyone run to Huanxiang Industrial Bank to run? And Tang Senzhi and Hai Lanzhu are so excited? It all started five years ago.
Five years ago, Yun Zhongxian came to the moon occultation stall to set up a stall, and saw that many people were trading with Huanxiang coins, so she also decided to accept Huanxiang coins. Zhu Meng didn't bring Huanxiang coins, took out his mobile phone and wanted to pay online, which was converted into Dongguo currency according to the market price of gold coins at that time.
Hua Zhenxing saw this scene, and after he went back, he pondered a question.
Most of the world's currencies have been very volatile in recent years, and after the collapse of the dollar dollar, international transactions were mainly bridged through multilateral swap currency pools.
To a large extent, the Dongguo currency has the status of an international currency, and it is also circulating in Huanxiang Country.
However, the main commodities exported by Huanxiang Country, such as Chunrong Dan and oil tree industry services, are facing countries around the world. Sometimes, in international transactions, there are often complex currency exchange and exchange rate fluctuations.
Therefore, it is not for nothing that monks from all over the world come to the moon booth to trade, in addition to bartering, they all use Huanxiang coins.
However, there are also disadvantages to using Huanxiang coins, first of all, the issuance is not enough, and secondly, it is inconvenient to carry.
So I don't know if it was brain pumping or other reasons, Hua Zhenxing asked Huanxiang Industrial Bank to issue digital Huanxiang coins in the name of Feng Zibin.
Later, digital coins gradually replaced physical gold coins, and they were known as Huanxiang coins in the world.
It should be emphasized that Huanxiang Coin is not a legal tender issued by Huanxiang Country, but a digital certificate issued by Huanxiang Industrial Bank, and the unit is a piece.
Think of it as a kind of digital, standardized paper gold, if you have a digital Huanxiang coin on your account, you can go to Huanxiang Industrial Bank to exchange for a physical gold coin.
In this way, everyone's transaction is very convenient, and there is no need to carry a ringing gold coin in your pocket every time you visit the moon stall, as long as you bring your mobile phone.
Yun Zhongxian may not be adaptable, but it is much more convenient for most other people.
And there is another benefit of digital Huanxiang coin, it can be divided into small denominations, such as 0.001 coins, which is much more convenient than physical gold coins.
Otherwise, the face value of a Huanxiang coin to buy ordinary things, such as wontons, potstickers, kidney cakes, etc., is too large.
As for the exchange of physical gold coins, they can only be exchanged for the whole coin. No matter who you are, as long as the balance on your digital account exceeds one Huanxiang Coins, you can exchange them at any time at the branch of Huanxiang Industrial Bank.
As long as you work in the bank, you can exchange less than 100 pieces at any time; If there are more than 100 pieces, you need to make an appointment one day in advance; For the exchange of more than 10,000 pieces, you need to go to the designated place, which is the business department of the head office.
At first, the digital Huanxiang coin was only used in the transaction of the moon occult stall, and later Huanxiang Industrial issued a policy: the factory supply of Chunrong Dan is denominated in Huanxiang coin, and countries around the world can use Huanxiang coin when buying Chunrong Dan.
What does that mean? Not only can you buy Chunrong Dan with Huanxiang coins, but also give Chunrong Dan a standard pricing reference when the value of various currencies is unstable in the world.
In this way, the digital Huanxiang coin is not only anchored to gold, but also to Chunrong Dan. With such an anchor, even if the Huanxiang coin cannot be exchanged for gold, people are willing to accept it.
This policy will be implemented from January 1, 2044, and the ex-factory price of Chunrong Dan in that year will be 200 Huanxiang coins per box, which will be adjusted once a year according to regulations.
If Chunrong Dan adjusts the price, it is actually equivalent to adjusting the price of gold. Since then, 2045, 2046, and 2047 have also been priced at "200 pieces per box", which has remained stable.
Huanxiang Industry does not force countries around the world to use Huanxiang coins to buy Chunrong Dan, and it also accepts international currencies such as Dongguo currency and Silla yuan, but since the policy was issued, the pricing method has been changed to Huanxiang coins.
For example, this year's Chunrong Dan is still priced at 200 Huanxiang coins per box, so when countries buy it with other international currencies, they must calculate the amount according to the conversion ratio between the currency and the Huanxiang coin.
This invisibly makes Chunrong Dan have the characteristics of a certain "general equivalent" in the international market.
In the five years since its launch, a total of 25 million coins have been issued, equivalent to 500 tons of gold. Huanxiang Industrial uses it to purchase various materials and services, and then recycle them through the sale of Chunrong Dan.
This seems like a lot, but in fact, it is far from enough to reach the total amount of Chunrong Dan transactions every year. For example, the supply of Chunrong Dan in 2047 is 400,000 boxes, and the total sales volume is 80 million pieces in terms of fantasy coins.
Fantasy Coin mainly plays the role of pricing standards and transaction supplements.
But on the other hand, it has a lot of circulation, it is not a currency but it is better than a currency, which is equivalent to the M0 injected into the market in this way by a small country of Huanxiang, and M0 has a circulation speed and a currency multiplier.
Looking at it this way, the digital Huanxiang coin is actually a lot like the pre-1971 meter dollar, because it can be exchanged for gold.
To say that it is not a currency is also very obvious, because its essence is a voucher for picking up goods.
It is not a bond, and Huanxiang Industrial Bank does not pay interest, but only keeps the gold coins for the holder, and does not charge a custody fee.
However, this does not prevent the digital Huanxiang coin from circulating around the world, and people use it as a hard currency. Major financial institutions have played various tricks and developed a lot of financial derivatives.
It is precisely because of these external "financial innovations" that many large holders of Huanxiang Coin will not go to Huanxiang Industrial Bank to exchange it, but treat it as a financial instrument and monetary asset, and use it for other purposes.
Of course, there are sporadic small exchanges, and many people go to Huanxiang Country to travel, shop, and study, and they will also go to the outlets of Huanxiang Industrial Bank to exchange a number of physical gold coins and take them back as a souvenir.
Huanxiang Country also made policy adjustments in a timely manner, stipulating that there would be no customs duties for carrying Huanxiang coins out of the country, and at the same time imposing heavy penalties on counterfeit physical Huanxiang coins.
That's the background for the five years since the launch of Digital Fantasy.
As a financial instrument, Huanxiang Coin is supported by credit after all. If someone holds a large amount of Huanxiang coins and asks them to be exchanged for physical gold coins, and Huanxiang Industrial Bank cannot provide them, the credit system is at risk of collapsing.
But in the eyes of many people, this kind of thing is almost impossible to happen, because it is not only gold that supports the credit of Huanxiang coin, but also Chunrong Dan!
However, as long as there is a premise of rigid payment, there will always be people who can see this kind of structural risk, and there is room for arbitrage if there is structural risk.
If someone hoards enough Huanxiang coins to run on Huanxiang Industrial Bank, what will be the knock-on effect?
If Huanxiang Industrial Bank is unable to pay, it will constitute a breach of contract, and theoretically even lead to bankruptcy.
In order to avoid this outcome, the bank needs to negotiate with the holder. There can be several solutions, such as exchanging equity for debt, and in extreme cases, the possibility of a bank being acquired is not ruled out!
Huanxiang Industrial Bank may have the financial strength, but the promise it gave was to rigidly exchange pure gold physical coins, and the result was that it had to come up with so many pure gold physical coins, otherwise it would be a breach of contract.
The bank has another trick, which is to urgently buy gold and mint gold coins for delivery, but this will cause price fluctuations in the international gold market. Runners can also make huge profits by placing positions in advance.
Huanxiang Industrial Bank can also ask Huanxiang Industrial Group for help, and Huanxiang Industrial Group will negotiate and express its willingness to pay with Chunrong Dan instead of physical gold coins.
Then the squeeze can take the opportunity to negotiate the conditions, not only to buy beyond the quota limit, but also to buy Chunrong Dan in large quantities at a lower price.
This will inevitably lead to a decrease in the supply of Chunrong Dan from other international channels and an increase in prices, while the run-on with a large amount of spot will be profitable.
It is important to know that the price of Chunrong Dan in the terminal market in many countries is far beyond its factory price.
But if you want to run on Huanxiang Industrial Bank, you can't make a small fuss, you need to collect enough Huanxiang coins at one time to give a fatal blow unexpectedly!
The planning of international financial capital began a few years ago, and the earliest behind-the-scenes planners actually included Rogrid!
At the beginning of 2044, Rochard had a secret meeting with Hua Zhenxing.
At that time, the background was that Huanxiang Industry had just announced that it could pay for Chunrong Dan with Huanxiang coins, and at the same time, the issuance of digital Huanxiang coins had increased sharply from the original 1 million coins to 10 million coins.
Rochard came to remind Hua Zhenxing that this contains a great risk of rigid payment.
Hua Zhenxing explained that it is now possible to use Huanxiang coins to pay for Chunrong Dan, which in fact greatly reduces the risk of holders, and even reduces the exchange risk to zero.
Hua Zhenxing's understanding of the exchange risk is different from that of Rogrid. Huazhen Bank is not worried about Huanxiang Industrial Bank, but about the holders of Huanxiang coins.
As a kind of digital currency, the circulation scope of Huanxiang coin is all over the world, but the outlets that can be exchanged for pure gold physical currency are only in the territory of Huanxiang country.
Not everyone in the world has the conditions to travel thousands of miles to the country of Huanxiang to redeem it.
Some people may be inconvenient to enter and exit, and some people only hold a few Huanxiang coins, and the cost of exchanging them is too high.
If Huanxiang Coin can be used to pay for Chunrong Dan's goods and expand the issuance scale, it will naturally form a circulation market, and holders can easily trade with other currencies such as domestic currencies.
This doesn't even need to be promoted by Huanxiangguo, because someone else will do it, such as Rochard.
Rochard immediately laughed, but he reminded Hua Zhenxing that this seemed to ensure the credibility of Huanxiang Coin, which greatly reduced the risk for holders, but it would lead to greater risk.
Chunrong Dan is a controlled material, and although the annual production at that time has increased to about 330,000 boxes, it is still in short supply. Huanxiang Industry supplies to distributors in various countries in the form of quota proportions.
If someone hoards a large amount of Huanxiang coins and comes to the door to run, not only can it force Huanxiang Industrial Bank to default, but even if Huanxiang Industrial is forced to pay with Chunrong Dan, it will also destroy Chunrong Dan's supply quota system.
This will lead to some countries not being able to get the originally agreed quotas, resulting in the default of Huanxiang Industry to the distributors in that country, and the consequences are also very serious.
Hua Zhenxing asked Rogrid what advice did he have?
Rochard suggested that he simply take this opportunity to announce the decoupling of the digital Huanxiang coin from the physical gold coin, and simply use Chunrong Dan to guarantee its credit, which is equivalent to Chunrong Dan's payment token.
There is no risk of redemption of payment tokens, because Chunrong Dan's annual shipments are limited, and not anyone can buy as much as they want, and under the existing distribution system, countries can only buy according to quotas.
In this way, Huanxiang Industrial Bank can also issue a larger scale of Huanxiang coins.
Huanxiang Coin can become an international hard currency, the cost is just a string of virtual digital accounts, but it can buy various goods and services in the international market.
There are a lot of Huanxiang coins that will not really have to be recycled by selling Chunrong Dan, they are circulating and precipitated in the international investment field and international market transactions.
Rohardd also helped Hua Zhenxing formulate a plan to reach 50 million in the short term and 100 million in the medium term. If Hua Zhenxing is interested, Rogrid is willing to cooperate with him.
How to work together? Huanxiang Industrial Bank is responsible for the issuance, and Rogrid can act as an investment banking agent and contact a group of international investment banks to set up a special currency exchange......
Hua Zhenxing rejected the offer of cooperation, and said, "Doctor Luo, you should know me well, I hate all means of harvesting wealth out of thin air.
I don't reject wealth or capital, but I care about how wealth is obtained, who owns it, and how it is owned.
From the country of a few miles to the country of joy, I have been trying to get people out of the cage, how can I lure the world into the cage I have created with my own hands?
My original intention of issuing the digital Huanxiang coin was very simple, at first it was to facilitate the transaction of the moon stall market, and later it was to provide a relatively stable pricing reference for Chunrong Dan, nothing more. ”
Rochard stared at him for a few seconds, and then said with a wry smile: "Whether you want to or not, as long as there is a risk of gold redemption in the digital Huanxiang coin, and there is Chunrong Dan as a credit guarantee, there is a huge possibility of arbitrage operation."
As long as it's profitable, there will always be people eyeing it. It's like a sea with sharks, big and small, that swarm at the slightest smell of blood. ”
Hua Zhenxing nodded and said, "Thank you for the reminder!" ”
Rochard smiled bitterly again: "With the relationship between you and me, all I can do is to remind you" and then sighed, "You rejected my proposal, even if I don't do it, there are people who will seize this opportunity." ”
Hua Zhenxing: "Doctor Luo, you came to remind me because of your friendship with me. But what about another person, if the opponent is not me but someone else? ”
Dr. Luo: "I'm afraid I'll be tempted to do it." ”
Hua Zhenxing lowered his eyes and said, "There is an elder who once told me. It is very dangerous for children to walk in the downtown area with gold. For him, try to avoid doing so.
But on the other hand, this is not a reason for people to snatch this piece of gold. It is not right to snatch a child's lollipop, and the sin of snatching gold is even greater.
Children hold gold, walk in the downtown and worry-free. It may seem like an ideal world to many people, but people have to have ideals, you say? ”
After speaking, without waiting for Rochand's answer, he immediately asked: "Actually, before you came to me, did anyone already look for you, and this is what you discussed?" They're trying to pull you in, right? ”
Rochard smiled bitterly again, and his face was about to turn into a bitter melon: "There is indeed such a thing, they know my relationship with you and want to inquire about inside information."
Some people have estimated the gold mining, import and export since the establishment of the Huanxiang country, and if the gold reserves of several miles of the country are counted, the total reserves will not exceed 50 tons.
This gold is the total reserve of the two countries, and it is not possible to provide all of it to Huanxiang Industrial Bank to mint physical gold coins. Even if they did, it would only be 2.5 million.
They came to me mainly to find out the exact figures, including the gold reserves you already have, and the total amount of gold you could raise in case of an emergency without having to trade on the international market. ”
Hua Zhenxing: "Do you really want to know these numbers?" ”
Rochard hurriedly shook his head and said, "No, no, the only way to be worthy of a friend is to ask you not to tell me." As long as I don't know, there's no way to leak it to anyone else. ”
Hua Zhenxing groaned: "The reason why you don't want to do that is just because the object is me." But like you said, even if you don't do it, those people will.
If you refuse their invitation, it means that you have betrayed that circle, and if you really want to join the group, join the group.
With your participation, at least I can keep track of the situation in a timely manner. Today we met in secret, and no one else knew about it, so I won't leak it, and I believe Dr. Luo won't. ”
Rochard was silent for a long time, but finally sighed, patted Hua Zhenxing's knee and said, "If I participated, I'm afraid it was also to try to provide you with information - the information I can provide." ”
Hua Zhenxing: "You're already providing it. ”