Night Raid.

Ordinary people often subconsciously feel awesome and powerful when they hear this word...... As if it were a killer weapon to defeat the enemy and a panacea to win the war, I have this trick in the world. But in reality, much of this impression stems from a cognitive fallacy: survivorship bias.

As the name suggests, this concept can be summed up in one sentence: those who can be seen afterwards are all survivors.

The results we see are themselves screened.

In literary works, the creator weaves a story of "night attack", most of which is to describe a general who can fight well and use soldiers like a god...... Under this premise, the direction of the plot is almost certain to be the success of the night attack. The reason is simple: writing about a failed night battle can hardly help the story to be exciting.

Some people will surely say that even if it is not a fictional romance, in the exact historical record, the night raid seems to be mostly successful. As everyone knows, this is precisely the embodiment of survivorship bias at work.

The cover of the night does give the attacker a slight advantage in the first attack, but it also means that the battle must be fought on the territory of the attacked side, and whether it is a strong castle or a well-placed fortification, it is a natural nemesis of the raid. It is true that the darkness of the night will greatly reduce the defender's ability to observe and judge the situation on the battlefield, making effective command and dispatch difficult...... But the fact is that the active attacking side has a greater need for precision in command and dispatch, and is more seriously weakened by the night.

The success of a night attack can be summed up as follows: whether the initiator has enough military literacy and organizational ability to complete the coordination in the dark night, and whether it can rely on the opportunity advantage of sneaking up to quickly eliminate the main field occupied by the defender.

It doesn't seem complicated, but it's a pity: in an era when real-time communication tools have not yet been created, and conscripts rather than professional soldiers dominate the army, there is not a single army with enough quality to implement such tactics.

No one will consider taking risks if there is still a frontal battle; a general who is not a skilled and courageous general will not have the courage to launch a night battle; only the elite of a hundred battles who do not suffer from night blindness will be able to carry out orders competently; and in the end, only when the battle is victorious, will the battle be qualified to be recorded in detail and will be widely circulated by the world......

After this layer after layer, the nesting doll screen reveals the survivorship bias that emerges as an effective and easy tactic.

But the truth is quite the opposite!

Egger's attempt at night attack this time was also a strange move that he had to come up with, whether it was the advantage of the traverser's familiarity with the plot, or the unique identity of the Red God Agent, it would not make the difficulties he faced any lighter.

The difficulties of command in the dark of night were overcome by his detailed tactical planning, a well-established and proportional officer system, and the well-trained and battle-tested soldiers of the Land-Grant Army, while the two-tiered "tortoise shells" of Winterfell's main site were easily broken by gunpowder, the first new weapon of war against man, and the "stone labyrinth" that would be faced after finally storming the castle Well, this may have been a tricky problem for the other attackers, but it was nothing more than a problem for Egger: not only was he familiar with Winterwinter several times before, but even many of his cronies and officers were lucky enough to spend the night in the city with their black clothes on their backs and south, and they were selected to lead the team, and on the basis of this, a detailed map of Winterfell was issued...... Throughout the ages, the hellish difficulty test paper that any army that launched a night attack must have to face was completed by the land-giving army.

In line with the principle of being honest, Iger did not personally lead the attack, but sat in the headquarters under the protection of hundreds of remaining reserves, quietly waiting for the results of the siege.

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In a low exclamation, the rebels who attacked the city and the defenders who came forward head-on...... Columns of several torches collided mercilessly under the watchful eyes of the spectators inside the main fort. The veil of darkness obscured all the details of the battle, but with the fierce dancing of the torches and the faint screams, the fierceness of the battle could be imagined. The rebels had the upper hand in numbers and organization, but the men who were qualified to defend Winterwinter were all heroes from the north, and the defenders had the upper hand in the narrow street battles between the castle buildings. Arya had expected the first round of encounters to last at least a moment, but the reality was that in the flickering light of fire, there was a familiar but much fainter explosion than when the city gate was breached, and two long snakes with torches representing the attackers seemed to open their mouths to swallow food...... The speed slowed slightly, but it crushed the defenders without stopping!

The "stubborn defenders" were the final difficulty of the raid, and Iger gave a solution: if there was more than double-digit resistance, it would be solved with explosive bombs.

This is a critical battle that cannot be lost, and any savings that may increase losses and risks are unnecessary, and slightly improved anti-infantry explosives can easily break down people's will to resist and combat effectiveness, but rarely cause fatal damage, and this is exactly in line with the command's tactical goal of "minimizing casualties between friend and foe".

A few seconds of continuous roar came from the east and north directions of the castle, and the two land-giving armies that attacked the castle seemed to advance slowly and unswervingly according to the established tactics to the target, and in the case of not hesitating to explode bombs, the defenders faced the battle decisively and firmly, and the rout was as crisp as the rout, and the news that the castle was rapidly falling into the hands of the enemy was quickly brought to Robb Stark, who was still on the school grounds, by the wounded and retreating soldiers, making him, the lord of the city, cold and like a dream.

The two granite walls that the ancestors took many years to build, the biggest dependence on the safety and survival of the Stark family, did not even stop the rebels for a moment, like two pieces of papyrus paper that were broken with a single stab!

Robb's innate military instincts made Robb realize that the fall of the city was a fact and that it was difficult to reverse it, but the pride of being the guardian of the north and the young wolf lord made him have to fight the trapped beast again.

"Come, go to the west and south quickly, let the defenders abandon the city wall and retreat into the main fort!" The countermeasure took shape in his mind in an instant, and he turned to another guard: "Go to Master Luwen, let him fly the letter crow, inform the northern princes that Lindong is under attack, and order them to lead their troops immediately!"

The walls have been crossed, but Winterfell is not just about those two walls, and Robb will not forget: long before the first interior walls were built on the periphery of the complex, his ancestors had ruled over the surrounding territory for thousands of years, with the forerunner of the main fort.

Even if all the buildings on the periphery are stripped, the main fort itself is a military building with defensive functions!

Just quickly gather the troops and retreat into the main fort, try to drag it out for a day, and then wait for the first batch of reinforcements that have been assembled in the city of Severn, and then attack from the inside and outside, and maybe turn defeat into victory and make a big comeback!

The plan was good, but when it was carried out, Robb was embarrassed to find that the series of careful instructions he had given a moment earlier due to the fire in the stables had become the biggest obstacle to the new plan: he had sent a large number of defenders to the periphery to guard against the rebels, an order that of course had nothing wrong with it, but at this moment, it made it impossible to "gather the troops"!

Klay Severn saw Feng Jun's hesitation, and immediately spoke: "My lord, I have brought a lot of people to fight the fire, as long as I return there before the rebels capture the weapons depot, retrieve the equipment and then retreat to the main fortress, it is more than enough to defend the fortress!"

Robb came back to his senses, looked around and nodded: "Very good, gather your people, follow me!"

The soldiers from Severn City threw down their fire-fighting tools and followed the Lord of Winterfell to trot all the way back to the defenders' camp, and from a distance of more than ten meters, the swaying firelight and the shouting of killing made their hearts skip a beat. The enemy's speed was so fast that in just ten minutes, he had already attacked from the city gate to the arsenal!

Clay Severn glanced at it from afar and breathed a sigh of relief: "The rebels haven't taken the arsenal yet, if we kill them from behind, we will definitely be able to catch them off guard!"

Needless to say, Robb had already come to the same conclusion, he pulled out the sword at his waist, inhaled and shouted: "Stand in the front row with weapons, long live the north!"

In the earth-shattering shouts of killing, the original firefighting team followed the Lord of the Northern Realm to launch a brave charge, and it was impossible to see that less than half of them actually had weapons. In front of them, although the soldiers of the Land-Giving Army who had attacked from the east gate and were the first to arrive at the arsenal were numerous, they were fighting with the guards guarding the arsenal, half of whom had already entered and the other half were still outside...... For a moment, the ferocious counterattack looked like it was going to work, until the back row of the "rebels" turned their heads in a panic at the commander's orders and threw sparkling spherical objects at their feet.

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