This article is excerpted from Tianya Community by the corner of Pandora's mouth (thank you for reprinting):

ID：IQ1900

Britain is off, the big winner is not necessarily Russia, and the United States is not necessarily the loser. Pen, fun, pavilion www. biquge。 info

The current world pattern should be the three powers, the United States/China/Europe, the United Kingdom took the lead in getting rid of the economic strength of Europe and the United States, but the biggest impact is "confidence", the worst may directly lead to the disintegration of the European Union, Europe will once again become a nest of chickens, the euro no longer exists. Imagine whether Europe will be like the one when the Soviet Union collapsed, and the small states were harvested by China and the United States. Try to analyze a worst-case (for Europe) possibility: the disintegration of the United Kingdom, due to the "confidence" problem, France and Germany tighten their economic control over the European pigs, leading to a rebound in the European pig countries, at this time, if there are some small moves by China/the United States/Russia, causing the small European countries to lose confidence/ Cohesion, direct collapse of the European Union, China and the United States will quickly extend their claws into the hinterland of Europe (you don't see that China has pointed its fingers at Eastern Europe), harvest small countries, this time to see the skills, China will bring carrots dipped in honey, the United States is mouth cannon cannon, it is expected that China's harvest will be greater for this stage (industrial upgrading), but Europe is bound to be the position of the United States, and Russia will also appropriately "expand westward". In short, there are more European pigs, and the other big hooligans have more or less benefited. In the long run, China has the most to gain, and perhaps it is in China's best interest. Some people say that a strong Europe is good for China and can restrain the United States, but I don't see that NATO is the United States that has the final say. The United States has never regarded Europe as a problem on its mind. At this stage, it is enough for China to have the help of Russia, and anyway, China is now facing the United States alone, so what are you afraid of? Europe, you can't count on it.

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ID: owl trm01

The European Union and the United Kingdom are the biggest losers, the United States is the winner, and China is the loser

As one of the EU's troika and a permanent member of the Security Council, the United Kingdom will leave the EU, as the world's largest economy, and the EU will immediately hand over the first throne, both economic and political influence will be greatly weakened, the status of the euro will also be weakened, and the economy will be more difficult.

As the world's largest financial center, if London loses the support of the European Union, it will inevitably be replaced by New York, and even surpassed by Frankfurt, the British economy will be hit hard, and the political, economic, and cultural discourse within Europe will weaken, gradually moving towards self-isolation.

The status of the euro has declined, the dollar has lost its greatest threat, the dollar has become more solid, the political, economic, and cultural status of the EU has declined, and the relationship of the United States has steadily increased, and the right to speak has been expanded.

Britain is China's largest investor in Europe, London is the offshore center of RMB, Brexit, the status of Britain and London has declined, Chinese investment has shrunk, and the layout of RMB internationalization will be hit, no matter how you look at China, it is a loser.

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Comments on owl trm01:

u_109622202: China's loss is to move the offshore center of the renminbi from London to Frankfurt, or simply to set up another offshore center in Frankfurt. China has not invested much in the UK, and it has not had the slightest impact on the nationalization of the renminbi, which has depreciated and is more conducive to exports. It's all economic. Strategically, China will make a lot of money. A weak Europe is in China's interest, not in the interest of the United States. The damage to the United States is long-term.

Three Youths of the Turbidity World:

Comment u_109622202: Haha, you're right. National strategy, a little money is nothing, the policy can be adjusted at any time, but the benefits of the self-disintegration of the enemy camp can not be offset by anything. The U.S. turtle lacks a strong assist group, and China can take advantage of the situation to absorb and infiltrate.

ID: Mental Service 17

In fact, if you live long enough, such as two centuries, you will find that all the topics that are now hyped by the media are not worth a fart, and the reason why it is hot is because the media has to find a hot spot, and second, because the enthusiastic readers have not experienced enough. However, this is not to say that Brexit has no impact, but it is just that this kind of hot spot, which at first seems to be the worst in the universe, is no longer talked about a week later. Fortunately, the blogger doesn't want to join in the fun, but this is indeed a fundamental problem, so it is classified in the general trend, and at the same time, today's intraday sharp decline is indeed caused by this news, so analyze it.

The first is the economic impact. The economic impact is violent in the short term, but not severe in the long term.

The reason why it was violent for a short time is because this news directly affects the pound, one of the five major currencies, and this impact is conductive, just as today's intraday sharp fall is affected by the Japanese and Hong Kong stock markets, the changes in the pound will be transmitted to the world, putting pressure on the yuan and the Chinese economy, at least we have felt the pressure on the stock market.

On the other hand, many Chinese enterprises are entering Europe through the United Kingdom, and the British separation has made many Chinese enterprises have to "start all over again", which is a relatively large loss, but because China's enterprises are mainly state-owned enterprises in overseas operations, the biggest advantage of state-owned enterprises is that they have lost someone to pay for him---- considering the positive energy, not to say that the taxpayers pay, just say that the state pays----- so although there is an impact in this regard, it is not as serious as private enterprises, and state-owned enterprises are not bad for money, which Chinese know.

The second is political influence. The impact of this is severe, long-lasting and far-reaching, and it may lead to a major shift in China's politics and diplomacy, which is the greatest danger if it is not changed in time, and the impact will not only be political, but also economic.

The EU troika, Britain, Germany and France, among which Germany is strong, but after all, it is a defeated country, and the UN "Standing Committee" has no share in it, but Britain and France have always been against each other, although they are all "Standing Committee members", but no one obeys anyone, and no one can suppress anyone, and then Germany is important. To put it simply, the EU is actually a Romance of the Three Kingdoms, but a big-nosed version. However, Britain's retreat, the situation has changed, within the EU, if France and Germany wrestle, Germany is not qualified, so the current EU has formed a situation in which France is the only one.

When the EU is a three-country country, China can take advantage of their contradictions, although Europe has always been dissatisfied with China's human rights and the like, but capital has to increase in value, and you Britain give up money for ideals。。。。。 Anyway, Britain doesn't look for France, France doesn't look for Germany, there is always one who is willing, and if one is willing, the others will naturally not be able to adhere to their ideals and not waver.

Now, Britain has withdrawn, and Germany alone cannot stand with France, what does that mean? It means that China can only and must get the nod of France in order to enter the EU. Previously, Germany and Britain supported China's market economy status and the lifting of the embargo on sales to China, while France opposed it. Now, what are the consequences of Britain's retreat? This is only for the moment, there will be many troubles in the future, people will not recognize your market economy status, your enterprises will enter the EU will have to be treated as a non-market economy status, although the positive party media and the like say that "the Chinese people don't care", but I really care, at least I know what this means economically and politically, and it is not far to take the production cost of similar enterprises in Singapore instead of the production cost of Chinese enterprises and calculate it as evidence that Chinese enterprises dump and punish. Of course, this does not affect the wisdom and martial arts of the leadership, and whoever dares to say that it has harmed anyone has ulterior motives。。。。。 Well, I took the initiative to expelle myself from the ranks of the people.

Now, France has a rotating first move: if you want political interests, you can make a fuss about China economically, if you want economic interests, you can make a political fuss, and even if you want economic interests, you can make economic articles, and you can do political things with political interests. Although the EU cannot say that France is the same, France is now dominant, and it is really impossible for China to bypass France.

As a negative energy with ulterior motives, I am pessimistic about whether the wisdom of the Chinese leadership can solve this problem, because I am not used to looking at the world by the ass, only used to using my head, seeking truth from facts, from the facts of the past few years, I already have the answer, but since it is negative energy, we will not spread it, you know.

So I think it's better for you to get used to Europe and put pressure on Chinese politics in advance, and then the People's Daily and the like and the like will close the door and shout that we are not afraid, and it would be better to get used to the fact that Chinese companies are constantly being punished in Europe, and then the Xinhua News Agency and the like will shout behind closed doors that China has a clever way to deal with it. Naturally, I am afraid that it is necessary to adapt to the fact that at least exports to Europe will be damaged.

In the nineties of the last century, although Zhu Xiang was ruthless enough internally (this blogger would never praise him), but he was also ruthless enough externally (this blogger absolutely liked), if you dare to punish me, I will fight an economic war with you, although China at that time was in ruins, and it is true that Chinese companies dumped a lot of Europe, although Europe was strong at that time, but the hard ones were afraid of being stunned, and the stunned ones were afraid of dying, and China was not going to fight an economic war, and the final result was that Europe had to seek compromise and compromise. Although China will still suffer in the end, it is at least stronger than the result of not fighting an economic war, and after that, Europe will not dare to find trouble with China for a long, long time. It means a long, long time, and it is nearly 20 years. And now, well, it is said that China is very powerful now, and it is said that the whole world is afraid of China, so it is that Myanmar threw a few shells at China, Indonesia caught a few Chinese fishermen, and we in China ignored them generously. So, let's pray that Europe will not do what it did in the nineties, otherwise... Please read the editorials of the People's Daily and Xinhua News Agency to boost morale, and if you can't do it, listen to Foreign Minister Wang's harsh words.

By the way, it has to end like this: Brexit is a great benefit to China, socialism has once again defeated capitalism, good, mighty, and hopeful!

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The corners of Pandora's mouth self-comment: I myself look at the Brexit from the side, the first Brexit impact on the EU is certainly very far-reaching, since the Elizabethan era, Britain has been an isolated and indispensable mediator on the European continent, the local (marginal) politics is very slippery, since the Conservative Party was replaced, Britain was once dragged into the big quagmire of Europe and could not extricate itself, and its transcendent status was lost, as a maritime island country, this is very fatal. If you look at Japan on the other side of the world, it is very clear that Japan has not recovered since World War II, and although they have a strong economy, you have to look at Japan's political structure, and what kind of strong country is there in the countries that are basically controlled by the chaebols and US imperialism? Of course, the United States is also a 'free' country under the control of the chaebols, and I think most people with a discerning eye know this very well.

However, after the Liberal Democrats came to power in 2010, all this seems to be slowly getting better, and the Conservative Party is indeed very suitable for the British political system.

So I think the manipulators of this Brexit are basically the British Conservatives, with China, the United States (Wall Street brothers) and Russia behind the scenes.

Most of the Conservatives are older and have good incomes, so Brexit has the least impact on them, and of course the impact on young people is very large, and it will be much more difficult for young people in Britain to think about doing some business in Europe than before.

If you consider it from the perspective of people's livelihood and the long term, it cannot be said that the Conservative Party has done wrong, but the consistent ruling ideology has made them walk into a dead end and cannot get out, after all, it is not the era of World War II, if you continue the original routine, you may not be able to keep up with the changes, but in any case, at least pull your feet out of the quagmire, then the Conservative Party must have a way to slowly pull the economy back, otherwise the people can no matter what ruling ideas you have, and they will kick you out of power if they don't have money for us, I have to say that this is the power of democracy, but also the sorrow of democracy, the mediocrity will always be the majority, and politicians have been very skilled in manipulating public opinion。

Let's talk a little more about the understanding of the economy, this time the Brexit exchange rate has plummeted, don't those consortiums behind it take the opportunity to make a profit? The second generation of China's officials and wealthy can exchange the US dollar for the renminbi and continue to be dashing! Not to mention the huge amount of money that speculates in foreign exchange, don't be too happy!

The benefits to China may not be visible for the time being, but after reading so many comments, at least one thing will definitely happen, the euro and the pound are weak, and the yuan will directly confront the dollar, and if the yuan wins, then the US economy will be greatly hit, and it will be easier to lay the position of the yuan and China in the world, why is China isolated by the world now? Playing socialism, you can play, especially the rapid development of a huge economy, the Americans can't bear this, their own domestic economy is regressing rapidly, but China can still maintain growth, think about it is terrifying, do not deepen the confrontation earlier, once it is dragged to the Great Depression, it will be fun, the people at the bottom are really poor to a certain extent, the crime rate rises very quickly, in the time of internal and external difficulties, I can't guarantee that those states will have some independence referendums or something.