Chapter 15: Before the Crash
$1515, $1511, $1509......
In less than 15 minutes, gold fell more than $25 in one go, plummeting 250 points and breaking through countless short-term stop-loss orders set near the 1521 level.
Within these fifteen minutes, Su Yu's position was profitable and skyrocketed.
A total of 1.6 lots of positions, the profit exceeded 8,000 US dollars, the total funds in the account came to more than 8,800 US dollars, and the free margin also increased to more than 7,400 US dollars.
Su Yu stared at the gold trend that continued to plummet, holding the mouse in his right hand, and did not increase his position for the time being.
If the bullish defense line of $1,500 is not broken, the price of gold will definitely go back and forth.
He is waiting for the market bulls who are still holding on to luck at this moment, using the last funds to buy the bottom, and make another secondary high before gold officially breaks through $1,500.
And that secondary high point is his heavy position entry position.
The distance between $1,521 and $1,500 has deposited too much bullish power, and even if the market is strong and bearish is blowing, it is difficult to break through directly in one breath.
So......
After plummeting more than 250 points in one go, it should be inevitable that gold will use a short-term rebound to digest the recovery of profitable ultra-short-term investors, as well as the solid long investors with luck to buy the bottom.
Sure enough, in Su Yu's patient waiting.
Gold rebounded at 7:33 after hitting a low of 1508.75.
"Haha, hold on, under the bearish attack, gold once again held the price of $1,500." Seeing that gold rebounded rapidly after the bearish plunge, many bullish posts began to appear on the various trading forums that Su Yu paid attention to, "depending on the situation...... It seems to be a bottom divergence! ”
"There is no doubt about it, it is a divergence."
"Indeed, today's lows and last Thursday's lows are exactly the same as the trend of divergence on the daily line."
"Twice bearish, failed to make the gold price break through $1,500, which is enough to prove the strong support attribute here, right? Bullish on gold...... Today there must be a V-shaped reversal. ”
"What a godsend!"
"One blow, then decline, three and exhaustion, since the bears have failed to break through the support of $1,500 in the case of bearishness, it is impossible to break through again."
"The price of gold has retraced from $1,920 on September 6, 11 to now, and it has been corrected for a long time, and it is almost time to regain the momentum."
"Go long, go long......"
"In the current situation of high global inflation, it is most reassuring to go long in gold."
"Yes, since 01, gold has been bullish for more than ten years, and even Goldman Sachs said that it will see $2,500 in the next year, so there is no reason not to buy the bottom at this time."
Among the many remarks, bullishness and longism are still the majority.
After all, after more than ten years of gold bull market, being long and bullish on gold has almost taken root in the hearts of the vast majority of investors.
Even at this moment, the price of gold is only a line away from falling below the bull and bear line of $1,500.
It is not expected that gold will break through $1,500 and fall into a miserable bear market.
With the influx of bulls and the profit-making of ultra-short-term bears, in the last period of the European market, gold prices continued to rise after the bearish blow, quickly approaching the previous low of $1,521.
And after entering the U.S. market......
The rebound in gold prices has begun to weaken again as the power of profit-covering by ultra-short-term bears has been exhausted again.
Su Yu saw that the price of gold was near the $1518 position, and pulsed upwards several times, but he failed to get out of the continuous upward trend, knowing that the secondary rebound high he was waiting for had come, he clenched the mouse and placed 2 gold short orders in this position in one breath.
Compare the total funds in his account at the moment, as well as the amount of free margin.
A gold short order of 2 standard lots can already be regarded as a heavy position.
After Su Yu's order was completed, the price of gold continued to fluctuate briefly around $1,518 before it began to fall again under the suppression of bearish forces.
After digesting the ultra-short-term profit taking order in the stage of the European market bearish crash.
Gold's downward trend has become more bullish than the previous rebound, and in more than half an hour, it is once again approaching the bearish plunge low of $1508.75.
Su Yu stared at gold's smooth falling tick line and did not make any more moves.
He's waiting......
Wait for the new bearish appearance of the market tonight, and wait for gold to consume all the bulls' bottom-buying power, and finally in the form of a flash crash, quickly break through the $1,500 mark, burying all the bulls in the market.
The sword of Damocles, the central bank of Cyprus is about to sell off gold reserves on a massive scale, hangs over the market.
He doesn't believe that Wall Street's hedge funds, Goldman Sachs, Morgan and other large investment banks, will not do anything when they know that gold's fundamentals have turned bearish across the board.
At present, the long gold positions of the world's large hedge funds are still huge.
And that's the market, in the next ...... The reason why it is bound to plummet.
Because the large bullish institutions in the market cannot remain indifferent after realizing that the market is not good, they will inevitably reduce their positions significantly and reduce the risk of holding positions.
And the concentrated reduction and replenishment of these large institutions is the biggest weapon to kill the market.
Su Yu waited, and at 10:17 p.m., the price of gold touched the $1,508 level and once again gained temporary support.
At this time, the remaining bulls in the market are pouring in again, hoping that gold can bottom out and rebound, as it did last week, and launch a violent rebound.
Also at this time......
Su Yu, who was waiting patiently, suddenly received an application from the account manager of Huaguo East China, the foreign exchange trading company he opened an account, to join the group.
Su Yu glanced at it and agreed.
After all, his previous job was no different from the other party, and he would generally agree to this kind of group invitation, which does not involve his own interests.
Of course, after joining the group, in addition to being driven by work tasks, he generally does not like to talk.
"The price of gold fluctuates so much tonight, I don't know if I can hold on to $1,500?" After Su Yu entered the group, he found that everyone's topic was still on gold, so he couldn't help but read it.
"The bottom that the market has spent two years building should still have enough support strength."
"How much impact can the sell-off of excess gold reserves in a small country with its central bank have on the market? I don't think there's any need to be afraid. ”
"Anyway, I bought the bottom and placed a long order for 1.5 lots of gold at a price of $1508.45."
"Last Thursday, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, scary enough, right? At that time, the bearish sentiment of the whole market was unprecedentedly high, but gold came to a shocking reversal in the second half of the night, I think today's gold market, the probability is also the same, in this position long win rate, should be much greater than short. ”
"Yes, even if it is the bearish crisis of the Central Bank of Cyprus, gold has fallen from above $1,530 all the way to $1,508, I think it should have been reflected, and the follow-up should be the market repair after the bearish landing, long...... No problem at all. ”
"There's nothing wrong with going long, but you didn't get to the point." A person with the ID of 'Golden Point Gold Hand' said, "The reason why gold has strong support here and will not fall below is because this price is the cost range of Goldman Sachs, Morgan, and many large hedge funds around the world that have repeatedly increased their long positions, and it is also the cost range of gold positions held by major central banks around the world, and this is the real bull and bear line of gold, the current global economic situation is still not optimistic, inflation is still climbing, and the gold bull market will definitely continue." ”
"So, boldly increase positions and buy the bottom."
"If you miss this opportunity, I am afraid that you will not see this price of gold again in the next year."
"Since Mr. Huang is strongly bullish and calls for the bottom, then gold will definitely not fall below at this price, I listen to Mr. Huang, and increase the position of 2 hands of gold long orders."
"I will also continue to increase my position by 0.3 lots of gold long orders."
Su Yu saw the ID called 'Golden Point Golden Hand', and what everyone called it in the follow-up discussion.
I always feel that this person is a little familiar, but I can't remember it for a while.
"Mr. Huang's prediction was completely correct in the gold market last Thursday, but unfortunately I hesitated at that time and didn't have time to increase my position." Su Yu thought about it, and an ID named 'Investment Like the Sea' in the group continued to answer, "Since this is a rare opportunity, then I will attack with a heavy position, 1508 US dollars, 25 hands of gold more than a single entry, really make a lot of money, I will definitely invite Mr. Huang to dinner another day." ”
Su Yu saw the number of 25 hands and knew that this was a big household, and he was slightly surprised.
Then, he took a closer look at the public information of this person's account, only to find that this group friend who 'invests like a sea' was actually an investment customer of the sales department he was in charge of before.
This person's surname is Sun, and he is the owner of a construction company in Yuhang, and he has a lot of assets.
At that time, in order to let this person open an account and invest in the sales department, Su Yu put a lot of thought into it, but unfortunately, it was ...... Later, the other party disliked that the stock market was really sluggish, could not make money, and was not exciting enough, so he did not continue trading and withdrew from his customer list.
Su Yu never expected that after the other party withdrew from the stock market, he actually turned to the foreign exchange market.
I didn't expect to meet in this group.
"You're welcome, friend." Su Yu pondered, the ID of the 'Golden Point Golden Hand' replied, "I just said my understanding of the market situation, so that I can track it myself, what the real market trend will be, no one can say for sure, my friend wants to operate with my opinion, you can't blame me for the loss." ”
After Su Yu saw that the other party was bullish on gold, he immediately began to clear his responsibility.
There was some disdain in my heart.
Seeing this, the ID of 'investment is like a sea' immediately replied: "What I agree with is Mr. Huang's views and logic, investment...... Once you enter the market, you are naturally responsible for your own profits and losses. ”
As he spoke, he posted a screenshot of his position in the group.
I saw that in the account with a total of 130,000 US dollars, there were already 32 long positions in gold, and 25 of them were obviously just added.
See this amount of money in a forex investment account.
In the group of more than 800 people, many retail investors online have issued an exclamation of 'big guy'.
Su Yu raised his eyebrows, feeling that the other party's hundreds of thousands of dollars, nearly one million dollars, without a stop loss, is very likely to be zero overnight in the next plunge of gold.
The other party was a former customer of his, and he was thinking......
In the face of the imminent risk of huge losses, is there any need for him to remind the other party.
After pondering carefully for a while, Su Yu felt that it was still necessary to remind him, whether the other party listened or not, at least after the trend of the gold plunge came out, how could he form this connection.
As long as he wants to take the road of private equity in the future, it is necessary to make friends with high-quality customers with tens of millions of assets.
Thinking about it......
Su Yu knocked on the other party's temporary chat box, identified himself, and expressed his opinion.
"You said the price of gold is at $1,500, and you can't hold it at all?" After reading the message sent by Su Yu, Boss Sun asked in surprise.
"I can't hold it!" Su Yu replied, "Goldman Sachs, Morgan and other international investment banks target price slogan, not worth believing, the global economy, as well as the monetary policy of central banks are rapidly turning, after the market bulls have been exhausted by the golden ten-year bull market, when the market macro fundamentals change, the hedge funds that hold large gold long positions in various departments quickly reduce their positions, and the market is simply unable to support." ”
"In my opinion, the collapse of gold is inevitable."
"However, didn't Mr. Huang say......," Boss Sun said with some hesitation, "He is a well-known big V of Huihai Finance Network, so he shouldn't talk nonsense, right?" ”
I heard Boss Sun mention the true identity of this 'golden hand'.
Su Yu then remembered everything about this person, and replied: "In the golden ten-year bull market, he has been singing long and short regardless of the short-term market term, logic and opinions, often the bull's head is not the horse's mouth, such a person...... Popularity is created by the market, not by his ability, and he is not trustworthy at all. ”
"Okay, Boss Sun, that's all I say, whether you listen or not, it's up to you."
After speaking, Su Yu closed the temporary conversation window.
After chatting with Su Yu, Boss Sun stared at the trend of gold, and his originally determined heart instantly became apprehensive, but he did not listen to Su Yu's words, immediately reduced his position, or closed many orders on a large scale, but knocked on the chat window of the 'Teacher Huang' alone, erased Su Yu's ID name, sent a screenshot of Su Yu's important views to the other party, and asked the other party's opinion again.
"Boss Sun, your friend's point of view is completely wrong." "Mr. Huang" was very angry at Su Yu's criticism of his views for nothing, "I have been tracking the trend of gold for seven years, although I am not sure of the short-term trend in the day, but I have never missed the judgment of the general direction of gold." ”
"There's no way gold is going to end the bull market here, and it's impossible to say to him...... Consecutive plunges. ”
After speaking, 'Mr. Huang' angrily closed the chat box with Boss Sun, and by the way, posted the screenshot that Boss Sun gave him in the group, and publicly mocked: "Some people think they know the market, but they are actually just frogs at the bottom of the market, and they ...... Or the kind of frog at the bottom of the well who has no self-knowledge and likes to bewitch others! ”