Chapter 26 The Essence of Stock Investment
Su Yu doesn't care much about the various rumors about him in the online foreign exchange and gold trading financial circles.
After all, for a trader, fame is not enough to eat, only his ability is strong and can continue to make profits from the turbulent financial market.
It is the most important thing, and it is also the foundation of the real life.
After briefly browsing the financial information in the morning, Su Yu replied to the penguin, and Zhou Jianming, general manager of Huaguo Operations of Yingxiu Securities, asked him if he had received a text message that the account was opened, and then he set his eyes on the stock market that was about to open, as well as the stocks he cared about.
Hua Qingbao and Netspeed Technology still have no sudden positive and negative releases.
The two stocks, in the pre-market attention, are still in a cold, hot state, Hua Qingbao ranks among the top ten popular stocks, while Netspeed Technology is rarely concerned and discussed.
At 9:15, the two cities began a call auction.
After yesterday's emotional rest and stock price adjustment, Hua Qingbao opened slightly higher today, and then the bidding continued to rise, and finally opened 1.25% higher; During the call auction session, Netspeed Technology continued its consistent style of coldness, only 52 orders were traded, and finally opened 0.12% lower.
At 9:30, the two cities officially began trading.
Hua Qingbao first followed the long sentiment of the high opening, quickly pulled up for a while, and then began to dive gradually, falling into a volatile trend of rising and falling; Netspeed Technology is stable as usual, in the state of countless small single bidding transactions, closely following the fluctuations of the GEM index, and there is no independent market and trend.
Su Yu opened his stock trading account and looked at the 1.5 million funds lying in the account.
Continue to use small orders to continue to undertake the selling orders of Netspeed Technology.
At 10:33, through continuous operation, the 1.5 million funds in Su Yu's personal account were basically consumed by him, and all of them bought the shares of Netspeed Technology, holding a total of 60,000 shares, with an average cost price of 24.46 yuan.
When he bought all the speed technology......
Until the end of the afternoon, Netspeed Technology did not have any performance, and even fell slightly, closing at 24.39.
In the face of the continuous downturn of Netspeed Technology, as well as the loss of the wealth management account on behalf of customers for three consecutive trading days.
Su Yu still didn't care.
is one of the owners of his valet wealth management account, Liu Tianshui was confused after opening the stock account and taking a look at the position, and he couldn't figure out why Su Yu bought this stock.
However, even if he had doubts in his heart, he did not choose to interfere with Su Yu at this time.
Instead, he continued to choose to believe in Su Yu and remained silent.
After the three consecutive declines of Netspeed Technology, on Thursday, April 18, with the sluggish performance of the market, Netspeed Technology did not rise, but once again set a trend of four consecutive declines, making Su Yu's valet wealth management account lose money for four consecutive days.
After closing......
Liu Tianshui glanced at the account, still unable to figure out the reason for Su Yu's position, but he still remained silent.
And Su Yu, browsing all kinds of information in the market, is still full of confidence and patience for the fundamental changes and position logic of Netspeed Technology.
"Su Yu, I invite you to join the VIP customer group of our sales department, you can pass it."
When Su Yu was wandering around the online forum, Liang Bin sent him a message.
Su Yu replied with a 'um' word, then looked at the group invitation message that popped up, and clicked agree.
Entering the group, Su Yu found that the entire sales department, all the high-net-worth customers, were basically inside, among which Liu Tianshui and Sun Tianhong, who had intersected with him, were impressively listed.
Of course, there are no customers in the group.
There are also several major investment advisors and brokers in the sales department, as well as the manager in charge of the account department.
"Zhao Tougu, in recent days, the market has been very weak, and last week's strong rebound, completely in stark contrast, Huashang Bank, CEFC Securities, Ping An Group, Qianzhou Moutai and other stocks, basically fell back to the original point, is this the market rebound is completely over?"
"Many votes have not only fallen back to the original point, but even hit new lows."
"Yes, do so-called core assets such as Huaguo Petroleum, Shenhua Coal, and Huaguo Baosteel have a future?"
"Is there any hope for the market to go up to 2,500 points?"
"How long is the bear market going and when is the bull market coming? I heard that the Federal Reserve is ready to withdraw from the QE program and is ready to raise interest rates in the future, does this mean that our stock market will have to fall? ”
"Zhao Tougu used to say that bank stocks are less than 0.8 times PB, which is absolutely undervalued, and you can increase your position, but now the valuation of several major banks such as Huashang Bank, Huajian Bank, and Huanong Bank is about 0.7 times PB, and the stock price is still falling, what is going on?"
"And I found that the recent trend of the GEM has been stronger than the main board, does this mean that the future market will be on the GEM stocks?"
"Is there any future for the concept of 'mobile games' that have been hyped up recently?"
"Hua Qingbao fell into a big fall again today, the high retracement is more than 12%, I bought a lot at a high level, what should I do now, do you want to sell?"
"Is there a future for mobile phone industry chain stocks?"
"I have a position in Xingwei Communications, how about this stock?"
Su Yu opened the chat box in the group, and saw countless questions presented in front of him.
"Investing in the stock market is an endurance race." In the midst of countless questions, Zhao Investment Advisor in the group replied, "I insist that the 0.7 times PB of big bank stocks have investment value and can be invested for a long time, and no one knows whether the stock price will rise in the short term, but in the long run, I believe that this must be the bottom range, and investing in this position will likely be able to obtain a rich return on investment in the future." ”
"As for the impact of the Fed's withdrawal from QE and even the expected interest rate hike on the domestic market......"
"In this regard, the macro analysts of our brokerage have several research analysis reports, which are very clear, and I can share them in the group."
As he spoke, he shared a link.
"There is still ......," Zhao Tougu paused and continued, "The overall PE of the GEM is significantly higher than the valuation of PE in the entire market, and the investment risk is very high. ”
"The reason why the recent trend of the GEM is significantly stronger than that of the main board."
"It is mainly because of the dominance of market capital, which is supported by many concepts of speculation and attracting retail investors in the market to follow suit."
"However, without the guidance of long-term funds, it is impossible to support the long-term market by relying on floating funds alone...... The market will return to a normal investment environment, and the core blue chips, as well as many core asset stocks, will also see a revaluation. ”
"The hype piled up on the bubble will not last long, as history proves."
"Therefore, I am not optimistic about the market of the GEM, and I hope that all customers will participate cautiously."
"As for the analysis of individual stocks, China Commercial Bank, CEFC Securities, Ping An Group and other heavyweight stocks, I have been pushing, now the fundamentals of these stocks are still excellent, and the valuation is very low, I am still optimistic, other stocks, please also pay attention to the relevant research reports of our brokers."
After expressing his opinion, Zhao Tougu stopped speaking.
Su Yu bowed slightly, although he did not agree with many of the views of this Zhao Investment Advisor, he still appreciated the overall situation of his investment strategy.
Indeed, investing is a long endurance race, not a sprint.
The short-term concept of hot chasing seems to be lively, but in the long run, there are very few people who can continue to make profits through this short-term chasing.
So......
For ordinary investors, long-term investment within the margin of safety is the only magic weapon to win.
However, at this moment, the domestic investment market is not mature.
Whether it is a group of retail investors with a small amount of funds, or market investors with millions or tens of millions of funds, and even many private equity institutions and fund institutions, they all pay attention to short-term effects and can't endure the excessively long holding cycle, which naturally creates a continuous trend of conceptual speculation in the market and a short-term chasing effect.
"So...... All the stocks on the GEM can't be held for a long time? ”
"Hey, it seems that Hua Qingbao will not rise again."
"Indeed, even if the large-cap blue chips fall for a month, it is only a decline of 7 or 8 points, and it is easy when the concept stocks rise, and it is easier when they fall...... It's still blue-chip. ”
"But even if the blue chips fall slowly, the long-term cumulative decline is also terrifying!"
"Yes, cutting meat with a blunt knife is more uncomfortable than cutting meat with a quick knife."
"GEM stocks, is it really worse than the blue-chip stocks on the main board? Why do bad stocks keep rising, while good stocks keep falling? ”
"Expected!" Seeing this, Su Yu couldn't help but reply, "I don't think there is a difference between good and bad stocks, only the difference between future expectations." ”
"What do you mean?" Someone continues to ask.
Su Yu thought about it and felt that he was no longer an employee of the sales department, and there was nothing to take care of.
So he continued: "The core essence of stock speculation is the speculation of future expectations, and the reason for the rise and fall of stocks is also due to the changes in market investors' expectations for the future of stocks. ”
"Blue chip stocks, everyone thinks they are good, because of their performance and stable development."
"But it is precisely because of its performance and enterprise development that it is difficult to exceed market expectations, so its stock price can only fluctuate around the average valuation level of the market, and it is difficult to have a sharp rise and fall trend."
"And many three-no-concept stocks, everyone thinks that garbage, because of its performance and enterprise development, which are often full of uncertainty."
"Of course, because of this uncertainty and the market's low expectations for it."
"Then, once there is some positive in the market that can promote the fundamental change of these stocks, its stock price will have a lot of room for speculation."
"Take Hua Qingbao as an example......"
"Based on its historical performance and company fundamentals, it doesn't fall into the list of stocks that the public thinks are good."
"However, under the pattern of unprecedented growth in the entire smartphone terminal market and the broad prospects of the potential incremental market of 'mobile games', it has the possibility of rapidly changing its performance and ushering in huge development of the enterprise."
"And with these possible expectations, that's why the stock price has skyrocketed."
"According to what you said, Hua Qingbao can still rise?" There are customers in the group who have taken over the quilt cover of this stock, and they ask urgently.
Su Yu replied: "It depends on whether Hua Qingbao can rise at this stage, and it depends on its current stock price and whether it fully reflects future expectations." ”
"What do you think of this?" Someone wondered.
Su Yu continued: "For example, whether there are any new changes in the industry that promotes the change of its fundamentals, such as its ability to release its performance under the transformation of industry fundamentals, has it been misestimated...... The study of stocks is not only to stay on the K-line, but not only to stay on the market sentiment, but to do sufficient market research. ”
"Only in this way can we make the right judgment and ensure that we do not panic in the shareholding stage."
Zhao Tougu in the group was a little surprised when he heard Su Yu's words, and replied with a smile: "What this gentleman said 'there is no difference between good and bad stocks, only the difference between expectations' has a certain truth, and the stock price is indeed a performance that reflects the company's fundamentals and expectations." ”
"But it is necessary to realistically judge whether the current share price of a stock fully reflects future expectations."
"It's a huge challenge."
"Ordinary investors, without the research ability of institutional investors, are unlikely to see the real situation of many stocks with poor fundamentals, and can only follow the market sentiment to speculate."
"So, once you're involved, it's hard to get out at the right time."
"This has become a source of losses for ordinary investors."
"In view of this situation, I think it is most appropriate to invest in the long term by embracing blue chips and investing in the long term within a margin of safety that is really suitable for ordinary investors."
"I don't agree with what Zhao Tougu said." Su Yu said, "The difficulty of cognition, whether it is a blue chip stock or a concept stock, actually exists, and a company's excellent performance in the past does not mean that it will also perform well in the future." ”
"So, the margin of safety ......"
"I don't think there's any risk capital that exists."
"I also believe that blue-chip, concept stock investment, short-term and long-term investment, in essence, there is no superiority or disadvantage, only related to investors' risk appetite and personal investment style."
As the topic deepened, the differences in the views of the two on investment philosophy became bigger and bigger, and there were many differences.
However, with the increase of differences, Zhao Tougu felt more and more that Su Yu's insights and experience in investment and the market were even more thorough than himself.
This surprised him, and even more shocked, a gold medal investment consultant in the sales department.
couldn't help but hurriedly inquire about Su Yu's identity.
On the other hand, the old customers in the group, when they saw the new customer member who joined in, was able to debate with the gold medal investment advisor of the sales department in terms of market investment for so long, and some of the ideas they said were indeed simple and clear, which benefited them a lot, and they were secretly surprised for a while, and they were curious about Su Yu's identity.
"This gentleman, your theory is certainly solid, but the investment is ...... It always has to be put to fruition. When the discussion between Su Yu and Zhao Investment Advisors came to an end, a customer in the group couldn't help but say, "Can you tell me which industry, which sector, and which stock you are optimistic about?" ”