Chapter 186: Market Discussion
Subsequently, 3 o'clock came, and the two markets closed.
The Shanghai index fell by 1.95%, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 2.21%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 2.52%, and the turnover of the two cities increased sharply month-on-month, setting an annual record near the 100 billion mark.
Of course, what few people know is that today, just one institution of Guangda Securities contributed more than 10 billion trading volume.
In the case of an overall decline in the index, the amplitude and turnover of the index have hit a new annual high.
In addition to the 'Shanghai local stocks' sector that was bought by funds on a large scale at the end of the market, the rest of the industry sectors and concept sectors are all scenes of large outflows of funds, and the overall market investment sentiment is relatively pessimistic.
After closing......
In the face of such a huge shock in the market performance, in the face of the sudden suspension of Guangda Securities, as well as the sharp decline in its Hong Kong stocks.
In the entire market, various rumors about Guangda Securities' manipulation of the market, and even malicious long and short markets, have also begun to spread further.
And, right in this time frame.
The executive president of Guangda Securities Company, who used delaying tactics to close the market, has once again received a call from the main leaders in charge of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
The other party strongly asked Guangda Securities to issue an announcement to explain the reasons for today's abnormal market volatility.
Give the market an explanation.
At the same time, the trading supervision team from the exchange has also fully settled in the investment and trading strategy department of Guangda Securities and taken over the relevant data.
So, in this case, 4 p.m.
Guangda Securities issued an explanation announcement, and at the same time, the regulator also issued an investigation document explanation for the abnormal trading of Guangda Securities, which led to extreme market volatility.
And it is also at this moment that the entire market is confused by the majority of investors.
Only then did I understand the reason for the extreme volatility of today's market.
"Oh my God, I didn't expect this to be the case!" Inside Yuhang Investment, in the trading team that was reviewing intraday trading and market changes, Li Meng was shocked when he saw the document announcement issued by Guangda Securities and the Securities Regulatory Commission, "It's really an oolong market." ”
"It's not just an oolong market." Su Yu looked at the document announcement issued by Guangda Securities and the Securities Regulatory Commission at the same time, sighed lightly, and said, "And...... Today, in accordance with the principle of information disclosure, Guangda Securities has only disclosed the true situation now, and it has violated the law, looking at the impact of this matter on the market and the investigation of the Securities Regulatory Commission. ”
"I see that on the Internet forum, everyone is discussing that Guangda Securities is deliberate." In the trading team, Wang Can said, "They all say that they are manipulating the market, influencing the index through the underlying stock, so as to arbitrage on stock index futures, and ...... Today, the CSI 300 stock index futures have indeed exploded in trading volume, and the longs and shorts in the market have all been looted, and there are countless stop-losses and liquidations. ”
"Deliberately shouldn't be." Li Meng said, "Guangda Securities is a large brokerage institution with a formal state-owned background, not a private arbitrage institution in the market, they will never make such a big battle just to arbitrage on the Shanghai Index futures, but what is the real interest appeal and truth here, whether the traders operating below have any other ideas and caused this mistake, it is unknown." ”
"Don't care about these ......," Su Yu said in the discussion of everyone, "although this matter has a deep impact on the trading system and risk control of the entire domestic financial market, but the impact on the trend of the market itself should still be limited, let's talk about the follow-up views and market analysis of the market!" ”
For more than a month, he has basically taught the team members how to analyze.
From what points to understand the market.
Now, it is time for everyone to apply what they have learned, analyze the market independently, analyze the market, and make corresponding follow-up investment strategies.
"Liu Yuan, you say it first!"
Su Yu paused, saw that everyone hesitated and didn't speak, and then began to roll call.
In addition to him, Li Meng, and Wang Can, the three initial members of the trading team, among the six new traders recruited in the future, he is the most optimistic about this girl who is slightly younger than him and has a strong ability to comprehend market changes.
Liu Yuan glanced at Su Yu, pondered for a moment, and replied: "Today's market, although the market sentiment and index trend are ugly, and the GEM index has fallen below the upward trend line, there is a risk of continuous plunge, but from the perspective of quantity and energy, in fact, the market is in this position, there is no shortage of undertaking strength. ”
"Today, it almost touched 100 billion in turnover."
"Despite this, there is the impact of the purchase volume of Guangda Securities, but compared with the average turnover of the previous five trading days, it has expanded by nearly 25 billion, indicating that today's turnover, in addition to the trading impact of Guangda Securities, should still rise sharply."
"And according to what Mr. Su said......"
"In addition to the GEM, the position of the main board of the Shanghai Index should be a historical bottom stage where the trapping is extremely serious, it is difficult to release the amount of energy, and the valuation is extremely low."
"Then, at this stage, releasing such a large amount of energy should be regarded as the bottom volume."
"That is to say, regardless of whether Guangda Securities' operation today is intentional or not, the extreme fluctuation of the market today can be regarded as the exchange of chips in the range of 2056 points to 2216 points, so that the original trapped chips in this range have loosened on a large scale today."
"When the chips in this point range are locked, the chips that are willing to sell loosen on a large scale."
"That means that the upward pressure on the index from the current position to the range of 2216 points will be much smaller."
"And look at the bottom of the index, after the Shanghai Index fell sharply on June 24 and June 25, in the past one or two months, it has fluctuated in the range of 2000 points to 2100, which should be a very solid chip gathering bottom, unless the market suddenly encounters a major negative event like a 'black swan', otherwise it should be difficult to fall through."
"This also means that the index has a small downside space and a downside probability, and the upside range and upside probability are very large."
"At least...... I believe that today's long upper shadow line caused by the misoperation of Guangda Securities can be recovered by the Shanghai Composite Index in the next time. ”
"Looking at the GEM index again, after falling below 1200 points, it has overfallen in the short term."
In addition, the GEM refers to the fact that when the early breakthrough is made, in fact, the range of 1000 points to 1200 points is the entire amount that can be intensively amplified, and after repeated stepping back on the tamping of the high-level turnover range of chips, and then adjusted downward...... It is also the momentum of the decline, which is much smaller than the momentum of the upside. ”
"So, in my opinion, although the index is ugly today, it is more like a wash and a short lure."
"Moreover, the main board's 'Shanghai local stocks' sector, today's end of the obvious large-scale funds to buy the bottom; in terms of the gem, all the hot stocks in the early stage, popular concept plates, etc., the adjustment is also relatively sufficient, and the long-term support logic and expectations of these stocks and plates also exist, from the dragon and tiger list for several days, it can also be seen that stocks with strong expectations such as Internet speed technology and fenda technology have ebbed and flowed, but the institutions have not retreated."
"That is to say, the core sectors and concept stocks that drive the Shanghai Index and the Growth Enterprise Market have not been cut off and ended, and they can continue to break out into a hot and continuous money-making effect."
"So...... Overall, I'm bullish on the market outlook and think we should still maintain a relatively aggressive investment strategy. ”
After listening to Liu Yuan's market analysis, Su Yu bowed slightly, picked up her intraday trading report, and said: "This is the reason why you hit all the chips in your hand at the high price of midday trading at the lowest point of the day, when the market panicked, right?" Yes, opinions and actions are consistent, and they are still commendable. ”
In general, Liu Yuan's market analysis, although ignoring some market macro conditions and changes in the peripheral financial market.
But it is still logical and organized, and it is basically consistent with his judgment of the market.
Of course, this also shows that this girl is indeed talented.
After all, Su Yu still remembers that more than a month ago, when the other party first came, in addition to being able to execute trading instructions to the letter, the rest of the understanding of the disk really only stayed on the rise and fall of the stock price and the K-line pattern.
"Thank you, Mr. Su, for your compliment." Liu Yuan answered, and then stopped talking.
Su Yu nodded and smiled, then glanced at her, turned to Zhu Tianyang, who had passed the assessment and had not been transferred to the trading department for a long time, and asked, "Tianyang, what do you think?" ”
"In judging the direction of the Shanghai Index, I am consistent with Liu Yuan."
Zhu Tianyang replied: "It's just the gem...... I have a different opinion, the gem index in the rise, although the recent pullback for many days, but still far beyond the Shanghai index, now the market active funds, from the gem related to the popular constituent stocks, large-scale ebb tide, the main board of the 'Shanghai local stocks' sector of the hype main line appeared, large-scale convergence of funds here, in the entire market incremental funds, active funds can not support the two lines in parallel, can not achieve a continuous rise in the market. ”
"I think the adjustment of the GEM refers to I'm afraid it won't end so soon."
"And for a period of time in the future, there will be no fundamental change in the situation of strong and weak Shanghai."
"Of course, in the case that the overall incremental funds in the market cannot support the overall market, the elasticity of the GEM index is still better than that of the main board."
"Once the GEM refers to the adjustment in place......"
"The follow-up market style, the main continuity of the market, it is estimated that it will have to be transferred to the core concept plate of the gem and the strong leading stocks in the early stage."
"Well, that's good!" Su Yu nodded with a smile, "The market is subject to volume first." ”
Zhu Tianyang's opinion can be regarded as a supplement to Liu Yuan's thoughts, and of course, it is also more in-depth and precise.
"Wang Can, what do you think?" After asking the two of them, Su Yu turned his eyes and stared at Wang Can.
Wang Can thought for a while and said: "Since Mr. Su said that the market is based on volume, there is no market, and the current market sentiment is not very good, and it is difficult to drive more incremental funds to enter the market, then I think that whether it is the Shanghai Index or the ChiNext Index, I am afraid it will be difficult to get out of the continuous rising market, and for a period of time in the future, most of the market will still be dominated by shocks." ”
"Li Meng, what about you?" Su Yu turned to continue asking.
Li Meng replied: "I think that whether the index is volatile or upward, at least there is not much room for downward movement, that is to say, there is not much risk in the macro aspect of the market." ”
"In this case, we should be a little more aggressive in operation."
"Also, at this time, since the new increase in the market can not maintain the general rise of the market situation, it can only bring local markets and seesaw effect markets."
"Then we should light the index and focus on individual stocks."
"As long as we hold stocks, the investment logic still exists, and the expectations still exist, I don't think there's anything to worry about."