Chapter 250: The Theory of the Fundamentals of the Bull Market
"At this age, this opinion is at least farther than you and me!" Tu Yuanhua laughed.
Zhou Bangyao pondered for a while and said: "If you and I were two or thirty years ago, they were naturally stronger than us, but in the past twenty or thirty years, there have been many brilliant figures in the industry. ”
"There are not a few of them." Tu Yuanhua said with a chuckle, "But at the age stage, I can have such a deep understanding of financial market trading, among the people I have met, this young man is already the only one...... It's not too bad. ”
"It's a pity......"
After a pause, Tu Yuanhua sighed again: "This young man was originally supposed to be a member of our 'CEFC Securities' system, but I didn't expect that the sales department below was not retained at all. ”
For the sales department below to let go of such an outstanding talent, Tu Yuanhua has always been worried about it.
He thought...... If Su Yu was still in the CEFC Securities business department, how good would it be? He ordered him to be transferred to the Yanjing headquarters, believing that in a few years, the proprietary investment department he was in charge of would be able to take on a new look, and Su Yu would most likely become the most proud student in his life.
"Yo...... I didn't expect him to come from your CEFC Securities! Zhou Yaobang joked slightly, "It's a pity that such talents are not retained." ”
"However, your company, internal talent training and career development problems, many stubborn diseases."
"It's time for a change."
"I remember that Yang Lingfeng, who seems to be 'Tomorrow Capital', also went out from your CEFC Securities, right? Before, the reputation and ability were not obvious, but as soon as you came out of CEFC Securities, it was out of control, and this is not the first time. ”
"Laugh if you want!" Tu Yuanhua coughed lightly and said, "There are some stubborn diseases, it's not that you can easily change them, haven't you also been in Huajin Company before?" Something...... Is it up to you and me to make the final decision? All...... Don't listen to the arrangement yet. ”
Proprietary institutions, public funds, and private equity companies are fundamentally different.
Not only is the degree of market supervision different, but there will also be some interference in the direction of investment strategy, let alone in the direction of internal system reform.
Not to mention that he is just the general manager of a market investment department of CEFC Securities.
Even if he is the general manager of the entire CEFC Securities Group, it is difficult to change some of the company's existing systems, and I don't know how many people will be moved.
"That's just as well!" Zhou Bangyao nodded slightly, and was about to squeeze his friend for two more sentences.
At this time, other industry insiders who are familiar with the two of them have gathered around and rushed to greet them, after all, whether they are identities or statuses, they are considered seniors in the industry, and the financial circle and fund circle, although the seniority is not so serious, but there is still some necessary respect for the seniors in the industry.
With more and more people......
After 6 o'clock in the afternoon, the dinner begins.
In the dinner of "Mr. Su's ......", Xie Wanting and Su Yu sat at the same table, only to see him smile and say, "I listened to Mr. Su's overall views on the market trading place before, and I was very touched, but I don't know how Mr. Su views the macro level of the market?" Is there a bull market basis in the current market? ”
"What does Miss Xie think?" Su Yu did not take the initiative to answer, but asked rhetorically.
Xie Wanting pondered for a while and said: "According to the theory you said before, that is, the market money-making effect and incremental funds, I think the foundation of the bull market is already there. ”
"This year's market trend is obviously better than the previous two or three years."
"Internet finance, mobile games, Shanghai Free Trade Zone, restructuring backdoor, smart phone industry chain...... Many conceptual quotes are interpreted one after another. ”
"Especially at the end of June, after a deep round of correction in the market."
"I feel that the market trend has become easier, and the market money-making effect and the continuous entry of incremental funds are also more intense than in the first half of the year."
"At the beginning of the year, the average turnover of the entire market was two or three hundred billion, and now it is ...... But there is an average turnover of 100 billion. ”
"In terms of quantity and energy alone, it has expanded by more than three times."
"This proves that incremental funds have been entering, and it proves that the majority of investors in the market, under the continuous money-making effect, have confidence in the bull market, and are fully recovering."
"So, I think ......"
"Whether it is in terms of money-making effect, incremental funds, or changes in market industry fundamentals, or in terms of regulatory attitudes...... Both macro and micro support the market bullish, and also believe that the pace of the bull market is very close at this time. ”
"Just like the four seasons of the year, the midwinter has passed, and the footsteps of spring have quietly come."
"Miss Xie's last sentence is good." Su Yu said with a smile, "I also think that the current market, the midwinter has passed, and the pace of spring has quietly come, but I don't think that the confidence of the market has recovered at this time, and I don't think that the foundation for the outbreak of the bull market has been fully equipped." ”
"How?" Xie Wanting asked.
Su Yu replied with a smile: "Regarding market confidence, I just mentioned that in the direction of the main board, whether it is banking, securities, real estate, consumption, infrastructure and a series of industries, the valuation and stock price have not reversed, that is, the value has not returned, whether it is retail investors, or many large domestic investment institutions, in this regard, they all hold a relatively pessimistic view. ”
"If you want the market to be bullish in an all-round way, a continuous bull market will be born."
"With the current volume of the GEM alone, it can not move the market."
"The recovery of market confidence not only refers to the recovery of the confidence of retail investors and investors, but also the confidence of institutions is also an important part of market confidence."
"My understanding ......"
"It is only these weighted core industries, value and stock prices, that have begun to give positive feedback, and can get out of a round of continuous money-making effect, the market is no longer a seesaw effect, and the turnover of the entire market can go further, reaching 150 billion, or even about 200 billion."
"It can be said that market confidence has been fully restored."
"As for the basis of the bull market outbreak, in my opinion...... At least there is one point of dissatisfaction, and that is further easing of credit. ”
"At the current stage, the savings conditions of our domestic residents are no longer as good as in 06 and 07."
"If you don't have wide credit, you can increase your credit and increase leverage......"
"Then, in a market where retail investors account for more than 80% of the market investor share, the trading volume cannot be further expanded."
"In other words, even if market confidence is restored."
"In the case that the volume of the A-share market has nearly doubled compared with 06 and 07, there is not so much incremental capital to push up the market."
"So, I don't think there is such a condition as easy credit, easy credit, and increased leverage."
"There will not be a full-blown bull market in the market, it will only be a partial bull market pattern."
"I agree that the spring of the market has quietly come, and the pace of the bull market is gradually approaching, but the market's 'inverted spring cold' still exists, and it is too early to turn to full optimism at this time."
"Wide credit, wide credit, increased leverage?" Xie Wanting muttered, thought about it, and said, "But the Federal Reserve has officially withdrawn from the QE plan, and the global central bank, in the choice of monetary policy, is also being forced to follow the Federal Reserve and shift from easing to tightening strategy. ”
Su Yu nodded slightly: "China's economic growth capacity, is still very strong, although the level of residents' savings has declined, but the family leverage rate is generally not high, coupled with China's traditional thinking, in the concept of consumption, has always been conservative, if the implementation of the 'easy credit, wide credit, increase leverage' monetary strategy, for economic growth, for consumption stimulation, is still very great." ”
"In addition, China's infrastructure and urbanization rate are not high, and the construction of financial markets is also in its infancy."
"Under the strategy of 'easy credit, easy credit, and increased leverage', the additional funds issued have a place to go, and will not cause obvious inflationary consequences."
"And the current, emerging economic sectors."
"That is, the fields of 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain' have been revealed, and new consumption incremental markets have emerged, which can also absorb a large amount of additional funds."
"So, when this scenario ......"
"I think that the road of 'easy credit, wide credit, and increased leverage' is likely to be taken."
"Infrastructure, urbanization rate, financial construction, mobile Internet, smart phone industry chain." Xie Wanting smiled, "If you expect the future, the central bank really chooses the path you said in terms of monetary policy, these aspects are likely to be the direction you are optimistic about, right?" ”
When Su Yu heard this, he glanced at Xie Wanting in great surprise.
He was just pushing back the trajectory of the future market development, but he didn't want the other party to instantly summarize the precise investment direction from his words.
And in essence......
In the macro context of 'wide credit, wide credit, and increased leverage' in the future, investment in these directions has indeed shone brightly and has become the direction of wealth gathering.
"If the future market development and macro monetary policy direction really go in this direction......," Su Yu paused and said, "My investment choices will most likely be in these directions." ”
"Mr. Su's bull market inference is very bullish!" During the discussion between Su Yu and Xie Wanting, Xu Zhongji couldn't help but praise, "Hearing the opinions of the two, I am so old that my blood has been rushing upward, and I can't wait for the end of the National Day to open the market and directly grab a full position." ”
"Mr. Xu wants to grab the first prize!" Gao Tianhe of Anhe Fund laughed.
"Although my knowledge and understanding of the macroeconomy is far inferior to that of Mr. Su, I agree with the view that the market winter has passed and spring is quietly approaching." Xu Shen paused and said, "Fear and greed, just like twin sisters, the market has experienced fear for several years, and it is time to enter the stage of greed." ”
"Indeed." Gao Tianhe said, "Even from the perspective of historical laws, the 2000 bull market has been separated from the 06 and 07 bull markets for more than 5 years, and from the 08 bear market to the present, it has been almost more than 5 years, and the market should enter a reversal cycle." ”
"It's the first time I've heard that someone actually uses the bull-bear dividing timeline of the past market to speculate on the future market." While Gao Tianhe was talking, a young man about twenty-seven or eighteen years old, holding a wine glass, suddenly appeared next to Su Yu's table, "Use the past bull and bear dividing timeline to speculate the market outlook, what is the difference between this and those retail investors in the market who are staring at the K-line, speculating on the subsequent rise of stock prices, and judging the motive of the main funds?" This is also unavoidable...... Too one-sided, right? ”
"Who are you?" Gao Tianhe glanced at each other and frowned.
As soon as he said it casually, he was scolded by the other party, and the other party also said that he was not level, which made him quite angry.
"Reasoning at the technical level is not useless." Su Yu retorted in the other party's arrogant words, "You also know that most of the retail investors in the market are staring at the K-line, making investment choices and judging the main capital objects from the historical performance of the market." ”
"That being the case, the historical performance of the market, as well as the performance of the candlestick."
"It's the general expectation of a retail group."
"As long as this expectation exists, the agitation of emotions can make this scattered household that believes in the technical side follow suit, which forms the entry of incremental funds."
"And when the expectations of the majority of retail investors are at a certain point in time, they form a consistency."
"It is not entirely impossible for a steady stream of incremental funds to create a bull market."
"I think as an investor, if you ignore the past history of the market, you won't grasp the future at all, and if you can't grasp the future, how can you make money in the market?"
In Su Yu's cognition, technical investment and fundamental investment are not incompatible.
In essence, the two are fundamentally the same path, but they are presented in different ways.
"Who are you?" The young man squinted his eyes and did not answer Gao Tianhe's words, but stared at Su Yu seriously, "If the K-line and historical trends are useful, then the U.S. stock market will not be the current trend, and investors and institutions who believe in the K-line and feel that they can dig out the future and judge the future from the historical trend of the market have been strangled in the U.S. stock market in the past few years." ”
"As far as I know, in the current international market, there is no such thing as an institution that invests purely technically."
"The K-line system, after more than 100 years of development, has long been reduced to a tool that only records the market, and has no analytical significance."
"Hu Jiucheng, what do you mean...... Did you say that? Xie Wanting glared at the other party angrily, "What do you mean that technical analysis is useless?" The great man also said that only by learning lessons from history can we create the future, but I didn't expect that history would be useless in you? If there is no history, where is the future? ”
"I'm not saying that history is useless, I'm saying that historical candlestick analysis is useless." Hu Jiucheng emphasized a sentence and said with a smile, "Wan Ting, why are you sitting at this table, I am at the table of Uncle Tu and Uncle Zhou, but I have reserved a place for you." ”
"Can't I sit here?" Xie Wanting said angrily, "I don't drink again, what did I do in the past?" ”
She came to find Su Yu, not to climb the relationship, why did she come here and sit with a group of elders who had something to do with her father, making her feel uncomfortable.
Hu Jiucheng was choked by her, paused for a while, and then said: "I didn't mean that, I mean ......."
"You don't have to say anything." Xie Wanting interrupted him, "You are busy with yours, don't worry about me, of course...... I don't have to worry about you. ”
Su Yu listened to the words of the two and knew that the two should be people with similar family backgrounds and familiar with each other.
Moreover, the other party should have some thoughts about Xie Wanting.
"Who is this guy?" Hu Jiucheng saw that Xie Wanting was obviously a little close to Su Yu, and his heart was not very comfortable, so he couldn't help asking.
"It doesn't seem like it's your business, does it?" Xie Wanting replied.
"I ......" Hu Jiucheng was rebuked by Xie Wanting one after another, his face was a little ugly, and he couldn't get off the stage.
"Mr. Su, if there is an opportunity in the future, I still hope that the two of us can cooperate and cooperate!" When Hu Jiucheng was unhappy and didn't know how to step down, behind him, a middle-aged man had already taken the initiative to hold a wine glass, approached Su Yu, and took the initiative to toast, "If you're 'Yuhang Investment' can carry out the fund business of acting as an agent for other companies in the future, you must notify me as soon as possible." ”
"Definitely, definitely!" Su Yu stood up with a smile, picked up the wine glass, and touched the other party slightly, "Mr. Wang's face, I should give it anyway." ”
After a glass of wine......
Mr. Wang's eyes fell on Xu Shen, Gao Tianhe, Xu Zhongji and others again, and they all said hello and drank with each other.
As for Hu Jiucheng on the side, whether it is Mr. Wang, Su Yu, or other people at the banquet.
No one paid any attention to him.
After all, in everyone's eyes, this person is a guy with no family background, but he doesn't know how to socialize politely.
On the contrary, Xie Wanting, who is down-and-out, sincere, and extraordinary, has been liked by many people without clearly introducing her family background and background, and most people do not know that she is the pearl of Xie Zhenhua of 'Zhenhua Capital'.
In other words......
The people present are basically veterans of the financial circle with a net worth of hundreds of millions.
Compared with himself, he has no ability, but the so-called gentleman with a deep family background, everyone does not have a good feeling, and this kind of character will not make many waves in everyone's heart, but Su Yu's ability to make money is extremely prominent, whether it is theoretical insights or substantive achievements, the promising young people who beat the vast majority of the people present are the objects that everyone is vying to appreciate, like and pursue.
After a short interlude, the dinner continued.
After a few glasses of wine, everyone's chatterbox was opened and they became lively.
In the midst of everyone's praise and praise, although Su Yu still maintained a humble attitude, with the catalytic effect of alcohol, his heart was still slightly fluttering.
Before he was reborn, even when his career was at its peak, it was nothing more than that.
But I didn't want to, it was only half a year to achieve such an achievement.
And at the moment when he was smiling and drinking with everyone, neither humble nor arrogant, no matter how big or small people in the industry, they could treat everyone equally, and talk and laugh freely.
Xie Wanting, who was paying attention to him, had a smile on her face that became brighter and brighter.
She felt that Su Yu had a special charm, that kind of charm...... It seems to have made her heart flutter a little.
Originally, in her expectation, the genius trader who can crisscross the stock market, fight for profit, and operate extremely violently should be the kind of lonely and arrogant, with no one in his eyes, or it should be like Xu Shen, who doesn't like to talk, doesn't drink, speaks directly and doesn't turn around, and has a very withdrawn personality, but he doesn't want to ...... After initial contact, the other party's personality is quite gentle, and it always gives people a feeling of spring breeze.
Of course, this is just her one-sided feeling about Su Yu.
After all, at this moment, she doesn't know much about Su Yu, and she can't get a glimpse of all of his personality, and she doesn't know if there is a Ling Li side behind his gentle appearance.
"How...... Faced so red and drunk? ”
When Xie Wanting was in a daze, her teacher Zhou Guohua had come to her side at some point, and said with concern: "I'll ask Xiao He to drive you back." ”
"Teacher, when did you come?" Xie Wanting withdrew her daze gaze and asked.
"It's been a long time." Zhou Guohua said, "I have seen you being angry with the child of the Hu family, as well as talking and laughing with the surnamed Su." ”
"You see?" When Xie Wanting heard this, her face turned even redder, "What does the teacher think of this person?" ”
Zhou Guohua looked at Su Yu's back and said: "It's okay, not humble or arrogant, not arrogant, with a very high theoretical level and unique insights, after a few hours, these people in the industry, few people really regard him as an opponent and enemy, this person's future development potential is not small!" ”
"Well, I think so too." Xie Wanting said with a smile.
"But your father, I don't like such people." Zhou Guohua emphasized, "The historical foundation is too poor, and the uncertainty of the financial market is too great, and there is often only a thin line between billionaires and billionaires." ”
Xie Wanting snorted lightly and said, "He didn't care much about me, why do I have to ask him what he thinks?" According to his thoughts, I'm afraid I'm afraid I'm married to Yanjing a long time ago...... The so-called second-generation elites he picked out, and let Hu Jiucheng follow me all the time, he doesn't know, I don't like Hu Jiucheng at all? ”
"Uh......" Zhou Guohua coughed lightly.
It's not easy to arrange Xie Wanting's father, after all, he can get to where he is today, and the other party's help and support are indispensable behind him.
So, every time he encountered these things about Xie Wanting, he could only pretend to be deaf and dumb.
"Okay, I'll let Xiao He send you back!" Zhou Guohua paused and said, "It's October day, the weather has already turned cold, you shouldn't just wear this." ”
Zhou Guohua has no children......
Therefore, although Xie Wanting called him 'teacher', he still treats this girl as a daughter from the bottom of his heart, and his usual concern is naturally overflowing.
"Hmm!" Xie Wanting responded and did not refuse.
Anyway, her goal has been achieved, and she also has Su Yu's contact information, and it is not difficult to make an appointment with each other alone after that.
At the moment, there is no need to stay here anymore.
Seeing that Xie Wanting agreed, Zhou Guohua hurriedly called the assistant and instructed: "Xiao He, send Miss back, drive slowly on the road, and pay attention to safety." ”
"Okay, Mr. Zhou!" The assistant answered, and then followed Xie Wanting out.
And with Xie Wanting's departure, in an unobtrusive corner of the banquet hall, a middle-aged man glanced at Su Yu carefully, with a slight wariness in his eyes, and left.
After that, the banquet came to an end.
Su Yu felt that he had drunk a little too much, so he restrained himself, said goodbye to everyone, and returned to the hotel room.
Then, rest for the night.
The next day, when he woke up, washed up, finished breakfast, accompanied by assistant Li Xiaoling, came to the conference hall prepared by the hotel, the vigorous 'Future Investment' summit exchange meeting has kicked off!
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