Chapter 348: The Core Thread of 'Great Power Infrastructure'!
Su Yu pondered for a while and replied: "In the pilot of preferred shares, the first to eat crabs must be state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, so the orientation of this concept is basically the same as the orientation of state-owned enterprise reform." ”
"As for the recovery of the real estate economy......"
"Although all aspects of macro policies, for the direction of real estate, has been fully liberalized, but in the specific market response, inventory digestion, demand boost, the national housing prices back to the growth channel, but it takes time to react, that is to say, there is expected, but in the short term, the fundamental improvement and performance of related enterprises, must not keep up, coupled with the particularity of the real estate industry, related real estate enterprises in the performance confirmation, usually lag behind the market for half a year to a year."
"Therefore, in the direction of real estate, there is a strong expectation and a rebound demand, but the space may not necessarily be how high."
"What do you mean...... Aren't we going in this direction? Li Meng asked.
"No, it's going to happen!" Su Yu continued, "Since the country has returned to the development path with 'urbanization construction' as the core in macroeconomic regulation and control, and liberalized the real estate industry, the market's 'low expectations' for this field will gradually transform into 'high expectations', and due to the low expectations of the previous market, the valuation of the entire market in this regard is greatly compressed, and the entire 'real estate economic industry chain', PE valuation is basically below 10 times, or even 8 times, that is to say, the spring of valuation has been compressed to the limit, once the expectation changes, The flexibility of the entire industrial chain is very large. ”
"It's just that we need to streamline our thinking when we invest in this direction."
"Streamline your thoughts?" Li Meng didn't understand very well.
Su Yu smiled and continued: "The core of stock speculation is the difference in expectations, and the core of support for stock prices is the company's fundamental improvement and real performance growth. ”
"There is a strong difference in expectations, but there is no ability to deliver on performance."
"Then, the stock will be reduced to a simple concept of speculation, and after the surging main capital speculation, the stock price will fall back to the original point because of the filling of the expected difference."
"Correspondingly, when a stock's performance is stable, and the market's future expectations are very poor, the stock valuation will be repeatedly compressed, and there will often be a situation where the performance increases, while the stock price does not rise, or even falls."
"And if we want to achieve excess returns in the market, we have to start from both the difference in expectations and the growth of performance."
"Only when these two complement each other can we get out of the trend of big bull stocks."
"On the other hand, look at the 'real estate economic industry chain' we discussed, which accounts for a very heavy proportion in the macroeconomic development route of 'urbanization construction', in the expected change, the policy from suppression to relaxation, and even encouragement on the way, the entire industry is expected to change at the same time, how will the profit of the industrial chain be presented? In the entire industrial chain, which link will be the first to explode in demand? ”
When Li Meng heard Su Yu say this, the originally hazy thoughts in his mind instantly became clear, and he said: "What do you mean, let's carry out layout hype in the order of the entire industrial chain and the expected outbreak?" ”
"Yes!" Su Yu said with a smile, "At the same time, through this main line, the concepts of 'state-owned enterprise reform' and 'preferred stock pilot' are all connected." ”
"As for the restructuring backdoor under the suspension of the IPO review you mentioned earlier, as well as the main concepts of 'mobile Internet' and 'Apple industry chain' that performed well last year and even at the beginning of this year, there is not much room for the difference in future expectations, and it is okay to pay proper attention, but I think it is not the main breakthrough direction of our next operation."
"Do you still insist that the subsequent reversal of the market will form a pattern of 28 divergence?" Li Meng asked.
Su Yu nodded and said: "From the perspective of market expectations, this is inevitable, last year's small and medium-sized board, gem rose well, the market investment institutions, the majority of retail groups, for the 'mobile Internet', 'Apple industry chain' The future expectations of the two core main lines have been pulled to the highest point, and the current market, although compared with the high point in November and December last year, has fallen a lot, but on the whole, the valuation of the popular stocks of the two core main lines is still about 3 to 5 times the average valuation of the market. ”
"Market hype, too consistent expectations, often there is little space."
"Consistency is optimistic, consistency is declining, and there is no essential difference."
"According to what I said before, the two large, medium and small boards, and the core main line areas of the gem are currently full of future expectations, waiting for the process of performance realization, if the performance is not as expected, the stock price fell back to the origin of the year, many votes have been cut in half, and next, it will continue to make up for the fall, if the performance is generally beyond expectations, these two core main lines, will once again appear expected differences, ushering in investment opportunities."
"Before that, there is a lot of uncertainty."
"Because, in the case of already high expectations, it is quite difficult to further raise market expectations and pull out new space."
"On the other hand, in the direction of the motherboard, many areas that have been suppressed in all directions before."
"If we gradually move from extremely pessimistic future expectations to no longer pessimistic, or even normal, or optimistic expectations, then the increase in valuation under the change in expectations will bring extremely high flexibility in stock prices, and even opportunities for profiteering in investment."
"Got it!" Li Meng said, "This is actually the essence of the fear and greed of market investors, the more they rise, the more optimistic they are, and the more they fall, the more pessimistic they become." ”
Su Yu responded with a smile: "Yes, the stock market is like a pendulum, under the guidance of market sentiment, no matter what rises and falls, it will be excessive, and this effect, put on the specific performance of the industry, individual stocks, etc., is the same, when optimistic, optimistic excessively, pessimistic excessively." ”
"The pendulum effect." Li Meng smiled and said, "This analogy is so good, so ...... Let's follow the direction of the 'real estate economic industry chain' and guide the operation, but ...... According to what you said about the demand of the industrial chain and the conductivity of the outbreak of Lilan, which link is the strongest in the current entire real estate economic industry chain? ”
"It depends on where the difference in expectations is the largest, the demand imagination is the largest, the policy tilt is the greatest, and the story is the best." Su Yu said with a smile, "At this stage, in the entire pan-real estate economy, it is obvious that infrastructure-related stocks are the strongest link, and the expectations are also the best, and there is also strong policy support." ”
"Infrastructure!" Li Meng was stunned when he heard that Su Yu's most optimistic direction turned out to be infrastructure, and then he understood, "You want to say 'New Silk Road'!" ”
"Yes!" Su Yu nodded and said, "The main line that can resonate with the macro policy is a good main line of the huge market, and the hype will not have any policy risks, and under the drive of various strong macro policies such as 'big country infrastructure', 'big country heavy equipment', 'further accelerating urbanization construction', 'rural revitalization', 'village roads', etc., the demand in this field is essentially in the explosive stage, and it also belongs to a part of the 'real estate economy'." ”
"Of course ......"
Su Yu paused, continued: "infrastructure, real estate, the whole is a whole, all belong to the 'urbanization construction' macroeconomic strategy development in a part, now, this field, there is policy support, huge demand one after another, there is a story of the 'new Silk Road' to tell, the valuation has been compressed by the market to a very low position, and the market in this regard, there is not much future expectations, once the hype up, the space is quite broad." ”
"But the market has also speculated in this direction before." Li Meng said, "But at that time, market investors did not admit their accounts and did not follow the trend to continue to attack, and in the end, this strong policy attribute, the main concept from top to bottom, was gone." ”
"That was the market time before, and it was not ripe." Su Yu said, "At that time, the market was in the unilateral decline channel that had just begun, and all kinds of funds gathered in the small and medium-sized board, the gem of the 'mobile Internet', 'smart phone industry chain' two main lines, has not yet ebbed the tide, naturally has no spare strength to do the 'new Silk Road' this main line, and at that time the market in this area of the valuation spring, compressed not enough to be ruthless, the flexibility is insufficient, in the case of overall low expectations, the valuation at that time is not enough to attract the majority of institutional investors to participate in the large-scale. ”
"But it's different now......"
"The market valuation has been compressed to the limit, the macro policy has loosened the restrictions on the real estate industry, the policy of accelerating urbanization has been clear, the policy of rural revitalization, the clear implementation of the policy of connecting villages and villages with highways, as well as high-speed rail, high-speed, various infrastructure construction, the rapid progress of major projects, the scale of the rapid advance, and then the further clarification and tone of the 'New Silk Road' policy."
"Valuation advantage, demand expansion, policy support, the market has completed the last fall, the bottom is reversed, and various opportunities are coming, and the natural final result will be completely different."
"Good!" Li Meng said, "Then let's stir up this nerve of the market." ”
"Hmm!" Su Yu nodded, "This direction can be used as a breakthrough in the core point, but the main line of breakthrough must also be coordinated by the branch line, only by diverging the market to multiple sectors and pulling out a clear macro main line, can we attract the participation of all parties and complete the establishment of the main line of the market." ”
Li Meng pondered for a moment and said: "Around the core point of infrastructure demand expansion, the upstream and downstream industrial chains should all be able to be used as branch lines, and according to what you said, the industrial demand and Lilan transmission path are often gradually transmitted from the upstream to the downstream, and the fields of building materials such as steel and cement also have considerable differences in market expectations." ”
"Yes!" Su Yu said, "these two areas, in the 'acceleration of urbanization construction', 'infrastructure construction', 'real estate industry recovery' and other conditions, have the opportunity to reverse, at the same time, as a traditional sunset industry, in the previous emerging industries led the market coquettish, has been hit to the bottom, the valuation can not fall, the difference in market expectations, is indeed quite large, can be used as a branch hype." ”
The two of them talked about the current market trend and market information.
For the market outlook and investment strategy, they discussed for several hours before they fully established the follow-up investment ideas, and they fell asleep tiredly.
The next day, under the unanimous decision of the two.
The two main funds, 'Yuhang No. 1' Fund and 'Yuhang No. 2' Fund, began to make final position adjustments, and further focused their positions on infrastructure, real estate, steel, cement, and building decoration with 'urbanization construction' as the core.
Of course, in this process of further concentrating the center of gravity of the position.
Regarding the positions of several core stocks in the field of 'Internet finance', they are still unchanged and have maintained their original status.
After 4 consecutive trading days of fine-tuning......
By April 22, when the index was slowly approaching 2070 points again, the two main funds finally completed all the rebalancing tasks.
At 9:48 a.m., in the internal trading room of Yuhang Investment.
Su Yu looked at the market that fell into infinite sideways shocks again, looked at the chaotic and disorderly various hot spots on the disk, and completely failed to form a joint force of funds, and also looked at the 75% position watermark in the fund account management background, as well as the 32 core underlying stocks that have completed the opening of positions, and knew that this moment is the best time to complete the concept switch and create the main line of the market.
As a result, I couldn't help but quickly turn my head, and immediately issued a concentrated fund to Li Meng, as well as all the traders in the trading room, to pull up the infrastructure sector, and have completed the construction of the five large-cap stock trading instructions of 'Huaguo Construction, Huaguo Metallurgical, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, and Huaguo China Railway' with the concepts of 'state-owned enterprise reform', 'New Silk Road' and 'preferred share issuance', which triggered market sentiment.
At the same time, he had more than 70 million funds in his own stock account.
He also smashed on the same infrastructure sector, a stock called 'Beixin Road and Bridge'.
As he gives orders, with his own trading actions.
However, in ten seconds, Huaguo Construction, Huaguo Metallurgical, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, and Huaguo China Railway, five stocks that have shrunk to the extreme, changed instantly, and under the effect of tens of millions of capital buying, they have risen in a straight line, and they have risen on the list of instant gains in the two cities.
And Su Yu used his own stock account to attack the 'Beixin Road and Bridge', because the plate is not large, the selling and circulating disks are limited.
The tens of millions of funds directly smashed out by Su Yu pulled out a straight straight line vertically upward, and directly sealed the price limit, which instantly attracted the collective attention of market investors.
", the infrastructure big guys are collectively changing, this is ...... What happened? ”
Noticing the changes in the entire infrastructure sector, some investors exclaimed.
"Beixin Road and Bridge has a straight line limit, Huaguo Construction, Huaguo Metallurgical, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, and Huaguo China Railway have also rioted in a straight line, is this any good?"
"The main capital is crazy, isn't it, pulling blue chips at this time?"
"Liar, huh? It must be a scam, the trend of blue chips, the low point is lower than the previous time, how can there be any market at all? ”
"The main force saves itself, don't follow!"
"Who is stupid with whom, the blunt knife of the blue chip cuts the flesh, which is much more fierce than the concept stocks of the small and medium-sized board and the gem."
In the hesitation, doubt, hesitation, and disbelief of many investors......
At 9:51, the five stocks of 'Huaguo Construction, Huaguo Metallurgical, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, and Huaguo China Railway', which were fully changed, rose by 5% after absorbing more than 100 million surging purchases, and the entire market, the vast majority of investors, were shocked.
At the same time, due to the direct drive of these five stocks.
In a few minutes, the industry sector of building decoration rose directly to the top of the industry sector in the two cities.
Seeing that the main funds continue to attack, the buying is surging, at 9:55, has attracted the attention of all investors in the building decoration sector, began to gradually usher in the pursuit of the trend, many active short-term funds, in the straight line of Beixin Road and Bridge, Huaguo Construction, Huaguo Metallurgical, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, Huaguo China Railway and other stocks continue to rise under the demonstration role, have entered the opening of the trial and error, to join the long army.
At 10:02, Su Yu carefully observed the follow-up of various funds in the 'building decoration' sector, and couldn't help but issue instructions again, so that traders could continue to push up the buying volume of several benchmark core stocks of 'Huaguo Construction, Huaguo Metallurgical, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, and Huaguo China Railway', while pulsively pulling the core stocks in the fields of steel, cement, and real estate, attracting more market funds to converge in this field.
At the same time, it also took advantage of the attention of market investors to quickly focus on this field.
The attack path with funds fully demonstrates the core logic of the macro main line of "big country infrastructure" brought about by the "recovery of the real estate economy and the acceleration of urbanization".