Chapter 373: The Core Logic of Market Speculation!
"What's going on?"
At the moment when the index and many popular stocks have risen and fallen.
In the Shenzhen Xinniu Fund Company, which also holds many popular stocks on the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', in the trading room of the 'Manniu No. 1' fund product, Mu Zhengxing, the leader of the trading team, looked at the trend of the disk, was taken aback, and hurriedly asked Fang Xinsheng, the fund manager next to him: "Is there a sudden negative in the market?" ”
"Probably not!" Fang Xinsheng kept an eye on the trend of the two markets and responded, "It should be that the market is attacking too quickly, causing the market incremental funds to not keep up, which has triggered a large number of hedging and profit-taking orders above, don't worry, this is a natural adjustment." ”
"So...... Here, it should be today's sentiment high and intraday high, right? Mu Zhengxing, who reacted, asked.
Fang Xinsheng nodded and replied, "Almost!" ”
"Then we can make a day T and make more profits." Mu Zhengxing said with a smile.
Fang Xinsheng responded: "On the way to the continuous rise of the market, doing T can only be done in the positive direction, not the other way around, in case I make a mistake in judgment, the chips you throw out at this time may not be able to be taken back, or that sentence...... Zhengxing, if we do trading, we can't just stare at this little profit on the plate, and we have to take a long-term view. ”
After a pause, Fang Xinsheng said again: "Do you know why retail investors in the market can't make money most of the time, even if they catch bull stocks? ”
"Because they lack patience." Mu Zhengxing said, "Retail investors, most of them are chasing up and down, in their shareholding philosophy, they can't wait to hold stocks to rise every day, as long as the stock does not rise one day, or lags behind the rise of the market, they can't help but want to sell." ”
Fang Xinsheng bowed slightly: "This is on the one hand, and more importantly, in their eyes, there are only small profits in front of them, and there is no macro big profit pattern, so they often pick up sesame seeds and lose watermelons because of a little small profit in front of them, just like what you just thought." ”
"The intraday situation of the stock market is the most difficult to predict."
"If you focus on this aspect and ignore the trend in the general direction, you will often forget the big profit because of the small profit."
"This is a mistake that is easy to make in personal trading, and it is also what we, as an asset manager, should put an end to and be vigilant about."
"Got it!" After listening to Fang Xinsheng's warning, Mu Zhengxing responded, "Then let's continue to maintain the current position and make no changes." ”
Fang Xinsheng smiled, and then continued to turn his gaze back to the plate.
At this time, the market trading time has crossed 11 o'clock, the Shanghai Index in the highest touch of 2241.49 points, all the way down to 2232 points, only to pause, and other market hot chase of "infrastructure", "state-owned enterprise reform" main line of popular stocks, also at this stage, there is an extremely violent shock trend, stock prices have retreated from the intraday high.
Among them, Huaguo Metallurgical and Huaguo China Railway, the two core leading stocks, retraced by 2%, from more than 5 points to about 3 points.
Huagong International, Bayi Iron and Steel, Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and other votes fell from about 3 points to less than 2 points.
As for the popular stocks in the real estate industry such as China Fortune, Kumho Group, Gemdale Group, and Poly Real Estate, the performance is even weaker.
Of course, in addition to the two core main areas of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'.
Other market areas, such as big finance, mobile Internet, smart phone industry chain and other main concepts, are basically following the index in shocks, there is no independent trend, there is no obvious gathering of main funds, active undertaking phenomenon, and does not show any continuous money-making effect.
"The money-making effect of the market is still hyped around the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', and has not been further deepened like the entire market." In the process of the index diving and falling, and the market fluctuated violently, at this moment of Yuhang, Yuhang Investment Company, in the fund trading room, Li Meng, who has been staring at the changes in the two markets, reported to Su Yu, "This money-making effect can not be as deep as the entire market for in-depth diffusion, and the current market active funds, under the divergence of long and short, can not further pull up the main line of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' that is already at a relatively high level, and further open up the market upside, so look at it...... The volatility of today's market should be in the range of 2241.49 points to 2218 points at the opening. ”
"Hmm!" Su Yu bowed slightly, "It's almost like this, the fall is not deep, but the rise is not high." ”
"But even so......"
Su Yu paused, continued: "The performance of individual stocks, is still remarkable, on the whole, the activity of the market is not low, which gives the market a fairly high vitality and popularity, in this situation, even if the index does not rise, through the local continuous money-making effect, the bullish sentiment in and out of the market, after a short adjustment, will once again pick up and recover, and re-lead the index to open up space." ”
"Indeed." Li Mengying said, "Today's tour capital led by many concept stocks, is the protagonist of the market, such as Beixin Road and Bridge, Shibei High-tech, Shanghai Sanmao, Pudong Construction, Shanghai Ganglian, High-tech Development and other popular stocks that rose yesterday's limit, this morning until now, have come out of the situation of the second board. ”
"You capital is the most sensitive group of investors in this market." Su Yu took over and said, "They think that there is still room for the market outlook, and it is natural for the market's expectations, after a short adjustment, to re-bias to the bullish direction." ”
"However, after expectations have reverted to unanimity......"
Su Yu pondered for a moment, and then continued: "The two main lines of the market, 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', the most lucrative market profit stage, I am afraid that it will come to an end, and when the market really reaches the acceleration stage of the same expectations, we are almost time to consider the follow-up operation strategy and investment plan." ”
"Hmm!" Li Meng responded, "Bottoming out in despair, rising in doubt, accelerating in enthusiasm, and peaking in madness...... There is no greater change in market sentiment than this. ”
"Mr. Su ......"
While the two were talking, Zhu Tianyang, a core trader, stared at the market and interjected and asked: "If the two main lines of the market, 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', reach a certain high level, and the money-making effect comes to an end, then the choice of active funds in the market ...... Will it turn back to the 'growth stocks' route with the small and medium-sized board and the gem as the core? ”
"After all, in this round of market rebound after the index bottomed out, at present, the 'growth stocks' route with the small and medium-sized board and the gem as the core is seriously lagging behind the rise of the broader market.
Su Yu turned his head, looked at Zhu Tianyang with a smile, and did not answer directly, but asked rhetorically: "Tianyang, what do you think...... What is the hype logic that the main funds in the market have been following? Good? Valuation? Expected changes in fundamentals? Emotional reactions? Or what......"
Zhu Tianyang pondered for a while, and replied uncertainly: "It should be...... Have it all! ”
"Liu Yuan, what do you think?" Su Yu still didn't respond directly, but glanced at Liu Yuan, the leader of the trading team 2 on the other side, and asked.
Liu Yuan thought for a while and said, "Money-making effect!" ”
"Yes!" Su Yu nodded with satisfaction, "The logic of all the underlying speculation is the money-making effect, the market news is good, the valuation of the target, the expected change in fundamental performance, and the reaction of market sentiment...... These are just some of the factors that support the divergence of the money-making effect. ”
"The fundamental reason for the hype is that everyone agrees with these logics and can make money by participating in them."
"All kinds of funds are willing to keep relaying speculation and opening up the space for the market."
"In the current market, the money-making effect and the strongest logical support are the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', which is also the reason why all kinds of funds are willing to follow up and continue to participate in the relay."
"But no matter how good the underlying expectation logic is, as long as it can't make money continuously, it will not be recognized by the main funds in the market, and then open up the market space."
"Just like the 'consumption', 'medicine', and 'big finance' fields in the market at the moment."
"Are you saying that their overall valuation is not low? Already at the extreme of history, there is no room for imagination in the future? Isn't it not, isn't there a main fund to take care of? Not even ...... A large number of major institutional funds have been concentrated in these areas, but the main funds from all walks of life have tried once, twice, or even many times, but they just can't open the situation. ”
"This is the money-making effect that has not been played, everyone participates in it, and they can't make money."
"In this way, there will naturally be no continuous main funds to enter the market to support the stock price and market."
"And how can we make the money-making effect expand step by step, so that the main line investment logic is recognized by more and more investors, so as to form a positive cycle of market development."
"This requires the various influencing factors just mentioned to form a multi-faceted resonance at a certain market opportunity."
"In this way, looking at what Tianyang just said, the two core main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' can be clearly quantitatively analyzed because of the gradual lack of follow-up money-making effect and the gradual departure of the main funds from all walks of life."
"Everything pays attention to a cost-effective price."
"The same is true of the financial trading market!"
"Looking at the entire market, in the dynamic changes of the market, which areas are attractive enough to support the factors that can support the money-making effect, that ...... That field will be the main capital of all parties, and the next field of convergence and speculation. ”
And obviously...... The main line of 'growth stocks' with the small and medium-sized board and GEM as the core. ”
"At present, no matter the valuation, future performance expectations, sentiment, market positive information, there are no mature conditions, the valuation of this field is the highest area in the market, although the future performance is expected to be good, but compared with the high valuation, compared with the main board of the blue chips and white horses that have been pressed to the historical limit of the valuation level, there is no advantage, on the emotional side, we have experienced the speculation of various funds in this field last year, and after the short-term strength of this field at the beginning of the year, many people still have expectations in their hearts, Emotions have not reached freezing point. ”
"If the emotion is not freezing, the various hedging chips gathered above this field will not be clean, which will cause huge pressure on the stock price to rise."
"In terms of positive market information, there is no 'new story' on the line of 'growth stocks'."
"Therefore, it is obvious that the opportunity for the line of 'growth stocks' to undertake the subsequent market development is not mature, so for the time being...... There aren't any big investment opportunities here either. ”
"Then Mr. Su thinks that where will the direction of the next main capital in the market be?" Li Meng saw that Su Yu dissected the logic of the market speculation in detail for everyone, and asked with a smile, "According to your analysis, the pattern of the 28th transformation of the market should not change, and the field that can take over the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' and switch between high and low should also be in the direction of the main board." ”
"Clever!" Su Yu bowed slightly, "But I am not a god in the market, the specific direction of switching, I can't see it at present, I only know that in the current market dynamics, the two main areas of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' are still the best areas of market investment, cost performance, and profit and loss ratio." ”
"All in all......"
Su Yu paused and continued: "Although the market is dynamic and unpredictable, the choice of main funds and the formation of opportunities in the main line market are the easiest areas for the market to make money. ”
"Even our information channels, market analysis and understanding capabilities are not as good as some large institutions with deep backgrounds."
"But in the process of trading, behind this string of numbers, the huge flow of funds that flow cannot deceive people."
"With the investment of real money, every choice of huge funds has its logic and purpose."
"This is the meaning of our staring, and it is also one of the underlying logics followed in market analysis and opportunity searching."
"Thank you Mr. Su for your advice." After listening to Su Yu's analysis, Zhu Tianyang was touched in his heart, as if he understood some trading logic and market analysis logic that he couldn't figure out before, and couldn't help but be grateful from the bottom of his heart.
In the trading room, other traders, under the guidance of Su Yu's words, were also touched in their hearts.
Meantime...... I also feel extremely happy.
After all, for them, it is more important for them to be able to get the personal guidance of Su Yu, a legend in the financial market, to deepen their understanding of trading and improve their true skills.
And in fact, the competition for the position of trader and analyst in the 'Yuhang Investment' company is so fierce.
In addition to the generous salary offered by Yuhang Investment, the most important reason is that everyone is eager to get the guidance of Su Yu, the top investor in the market and the legendary fund manager of domestic private equity, after entering the company, so that they can really improve their ability and future development.
With a short internal exchange, as well as market analysis.
When Su Yu turned around and focused his eyes on the two cities, the time had already passed 11:30, and the two markets were frozen.
I saw that after violent shocks, it was finally closed at noon.
The Shanghai Composite Index returned to below 2230 points, closing at 2225.79 points, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Index and the ChiNext Index returned to the vicinity of the opening point, maintaining a slight decline.
Except, of course, for index performance.
The conceptual sectors and industry sectors of the two cities also performed relatively flat.
Even the two core main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', which have attracted a lot of market attention, rushed up sharply in the one-hour trading stage in the morning, and all fell back at noon, and many core hot stocks in the medium and large markets returned to the price near the opening price in the morning.
However, the overall performance of the two core main lines is somewhat unsatisfactory.
However, many small-cap concept stocks in the field are brilliant under the all-round attack of various funds, and they are not inferior to the state of yesterday's comprehensive counteroffensive of the market.
Among them, Beixin Road and Bridge, Shibei High-tech, Shanghai Sanmao, Pudong Construction, High-tech Development, Shanghai Ganglian, Shanghai Construction Engineering ...... A number of mainline concept stocks, in the market correction near noon, still strongly sealed the daily limit, maintaining a trend of two consecutive daily limits.
Overall......
The whole morning was a bit like mid- and large-cap stocks and indices taking a stage together.
The main concept stocks under the leadership of tour capital continue to condense the market-making effect, and they have taken the stage to sing, and have gradually become the protagonists of the market.