Chapter 613: More and More Market Consensus!
Qin Qiuyue said: "There is no problem with the investment logic of the 'big finance' line, but when it will be launched, I can't say." ”
"Hmm!" Zhou Hui responded, "We can only wait patiently." ”
At present, the position structure of several of the company's main fund products has been adjusted to the main line of 'big finance', and in the face of the 'infrastructure' and 'military' sectors that have been in the emotional hot stage and formed the main rising market, they can no longer chase and adjust their positions.
Therefore, in addition to patiently waiting for the main line of the market to switch, there is no other better investment strategy.
While the two were talking, the market trading time had come to 3 o'clock in the afternoon, and the two markets ushered in the closing.
I saw that under the leadership of the two main lines of the two major industries of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry', as well as the core concept theme plates such as 'Eurasian Economic Belt', 'On the Road of the New Era, Maritime Silk Road', and 'Reform and Reorganization of Central Enterprises and State-owned Enterprises', the Shanghai Index has once again continued to refresh the new highs of this round of rebound and the new annual highs.
A number of popular stocks in the core main line are also refreshed with the index, which also refreshed the new high of this round of rebound and the new high of the year.
Of course, the performance of the popular main line in various markets is still in full swing.
These popular mainline fringe concept stocks, as well as many concept stocks that are hard to come up and have impure concepts, have begun to appear in a pattern of large-scale stagflation.
In addition to the two main lines of the industry, "infrastructure" and "military industry".
As well as the corresponding concept theme plates around the main lines of the core popular concepts of the 'Eurasian Economic Belt', 'On the Road of the New Era, the Maritime Silk Road', and the 'Reform and Reorganization of Central Enterprises and State-owned Enterprises', the performance of the corresponding concept theme plates is extremely bright, and the continuous money-making effect is extremely hot.
The main line of traditional investment in other markets, as well as the main line of 'technology growth' in the field of emerging industries.
The performance is still quite sluggish, and there is basically no independent market trend, all of which follow the passive fluctuations of the index.
Of course, under the circumstance that the performance of these main investment lines is not very good, the phenomenon of siphoning funds by the popular main lines of the "infrastructure" and "military industry" markets within the main investment lines has weakened.
For example, there are several major sectors of 'big finance', as well as several major sectors in the main line of 'technology growth'.
In terms of closing results.
The main capital flow within the sector has only shown signs of a small outflow.
"It seems that the main lines of the major market industries of 'infrastructure' and 'military industry', as well as the entire 'large infrastructure' investment theme, have gradually weakened the siphon effect on the active capital groups within the market." Seeing the closing situation of the two cities, at about 3:30 in the magic capital, inside Zexi Investment Company, in the main fund trading room, Xu Shen squinted his eyes, briefly reviewed the closing results of the two cities, and said with a smile, "The effect of the entire 'big infrastructure' investment theme of siphoning funds has weakened, which means that the long and short form of this big main line should almost reach the point of conversion." ”
Next to Xu Shen, Zhou Kan, who also reviewed carefully, nodded, and said: "The line of 'big infrastructure', for other main line areas in the market, the siphon effect of funds has weakened, which should be able to show that most of the free active funds in other main line areas have poured into the main line of 'big infrastructure', right?"
It can also show that there is really no oil and water to squeeze in other main investment areas of the market.
In this way, there is no continuous undertaking of a large number of active funds.
In this position, the main investment line of 'big infrastructure', if it continues to be strong, with the stock price rising, the volume of the circulating disk and the volume of funds required to undertake will continue to expand, which will inevitably lead to the lack of undertaking of this main line and the reversal of long and short forces. ”
Xu Shen nodded slightly and said, "That's right, that's it!" ”
"It seems that the line of 'big infrastructure' is indeed going to peak in the short term, and it has almost to be adjusted." Zhou Kan said, "In that case...... Boss, are we going to start slowly reducing our positions in the main fund products on the line of 'big infrastructure'? ”
The main line of this level, if you want to adjust, it doesn't matter whether it's time or space.
It shouldn't be small.
In this case, then they don't have to waste time on this big main line, continue to hold the chips, and waste time.
Of course, whether it is Zhou Kan or Xu Shen, do not think that the grand investment line of "large infrastructure", the medium and long-term market has been completed, after all, the regulator in the "reform and reorganization of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises", "the new era, the Maritime Silk Road", "Eurasian Economic Belt" these macroeconomic strategic planning policies, has not yet been deeply promoted.
Other words......
The future expectation of the grand investment line of 'big infrastructure' is still continuing to strengthen in essence.
It's just that at this stage, after two or three consecutive months of violent rally and continuous rise, there are too many short- and medium-term profits that have been accumulated.
In other words, the sedan chair is too heavy.
Without consolidation, throw some people who sit in a sedan chair down, and the capital group undertaken by the market cannot be lifted.
Xu thought about it for a while and said: "It's almost possible to reduce positions on the main line of investment in 'big infrastructure', but this big main line market, medium and long-term investment expectations and investment logic, are still quite good, we can reduce our positions, but there is no need to completely clear our positions."
At the same time, when reducing the main line of 'big infrastructure'.
It's time for us to start building the main line of 'big finance'. ”
"A bargaining chip to open a position in the line of 'big finance'?" Zhou Kan was slightly stunned and asked, "Boss, do you think that when the line of 'big infrastructure' enters the cleaning and adjustment stage of short- and medium-term profits, the line of 'big finance' can undertake the funds gushing out of the line of 'big infrastructure' and form the high and low switching of the main line of the market?"
But I think ......
Compare the future expectations of the 'big finance' line, as well as the fundamental situation.
I am afraid that the line of 'science and technology growth', which is dominated by small and medium-sized boards and gem constituent stocks, will be better, and maybe the line of "science and technology growth" is the core development direction of the main line when the "big infrastructure" is adjusted.
Moreover, according to the market performance last year and the first half of this year.
The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index have been going on a seesaw market.
In addition, the line of "scientific and technological growth", in the case of "large infrastructure" frantically siphoning funds inside and outside the market in the past two or three months, has actually been adjusted quite sufficiently, and it is possible to regather financial strength, consolidate the internal chip structure, and then give birth to a wave of the main rising market.
There is also the entire market, in addition to the current expectation of the line of 'large infrastructure'.
It should be said that the expectation of the line of "technological growth", in the case of "mobile Internet" and "smart phone industry chain" dual-core drive, is also incomparable to the main line of investment in other markets, after all, these two major industries, but the real incremental industry, whether it is expected to achieve performance, or the growth of industry scale, are with a lot of imagination. ”
Xu Shen responded with a smile: "The two major investment themes of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' and related emerging industries are indeed the most imaginative investment areas in the current economic development, but the future expectations of the market in these two fields have been full early."
Take a look at the corresponding core hot stocks for the 'tech growth' main line.
Whether it is its valuation level or the position of its stock price, it is far beyond the other main sectors of the market.
Although after such a long period of adjustment, the technical form of many stocks has gone very well, but in terms of expectations, it is still a little bit less interesting!
At present, inside and outside the market, the vast majority of investor groups are still focused on the direction of the main board.
And the line of 'technology growth', in the adjustment of several consecutive months, the blood loss is too serious, in the market investor group for this line expectations, there is no new breakthrough, and at the same time, many core hot stocks in this field, performance expectations have not kept up.
In this direction, it is still difficult to quickly gather enough emotions and consistent expectations.
In the end, it will take on the vanguard force of market breakthrough and undertake the huge amount of funds that have poured out of the line of 'big infrastructure'.
Compare the line of 'technological growth'.
Obviously, at the current stage, the line of 'big finance' seems to be weak, but in fact, its potential explosiveness is obviously stronger.
First of all, the turnover of the two cities has stood at 350 billion.
Compared with the overall volume performance of less than 150 billion at the beginning of the year, and the low peak last year, it was still less than 200 billion volume performance.
This almost doubled volume of energy can bring substantial profit growth to various brokerage institutions.
Secondly, the sharp increase in the financing balance of the two cities can also bring very rich profit growth to brokerage institutions.
Finally, looking at the rise of the Shanghai Index this year, in terms of its current position, the Shanghai Index has risen from around 2,000 points at the beginning of the year to more than 2,800 points now, an increase of nearly 40%.
In this year, the biggest contribution to the index is the core market line of 'big infrastructure'.
The line of 'big infrastructure' covers the direction of the main board, and many blue-chip and white-horse stocks are weighted.
Although due to the continued sluggish performance of blue-chip and white horse stocks in the market in the past few years, many institutional groups in the industry have reduced a lot of positions in this direction, so that the position level of institutions in this direction is generally low, but in the core sectors related to the main line of the entire 'big infrastructure', the annual increase is basically close to 100%.
These groups rely on such increases and subsequent continuous position increases.
It is also possible to make a lot of profits in this stage, and among them, the balanced allocation of brokerage institutions, banks, insurance and other asset management institutions are the direct beneficiaries.
The logic of the transformation of substantive performance in several aspects......
In addition, inside and outside the market, whether it is retail investors, floating capital, or various institutional groups, there is a growing willingness to go long, as well as the call for a bull market.
The line of 'big finance' is a change in fundamentals or a change in long-term expectations in the future.
At present, it can be said that they have reached a turning point.
There are a lot of smart funds in the market, and I believe that at this moment, there must be a lot of main funds that are secretly building positions in the main line of market investment in 'big finance'.
Generally......
If the line of 'big infrastructure' goes to the top position in the short term.
And its main rising market, the incremental funds that continue to enter the market, and the outflow of funds from other main line investment areas, can no longer fully undertake this main line, short-term profit-taking profits, and liberation of the hedging market.
When the main line of 'big infrastructure' is in the field, huge funds of deposition and lock-up gush out.
And under the guidance of the regulator, it is necessary to find the next main line of market investment to undertake the adjustment of the main line of 'big infrastructure', so that the index can continue to maintain high investment sentiment and investment confidence in the transformation of the main line, continue to expand the market's money-making effect, and stimulate a round of 'bull market'.
Then, at this moment, there should be no more suitable line than 'big finance'.
If it is said that after the market enters the short-term adjustment stage of the main investment line of "large infrastructure", the main line of the market will be switched between high and low, and the probability of choosing "technological growth" as the breakthrough and main direction of attack is 20%, then the time will ...... The main capital groups inside and outside the market, choosing 'big finance' as the main line of 'big infrastructure', and the probability of the main direction of attack of the Shanghai Index hitting the 3,000-point mark, is 80%. ”
After listening to Xu Shen's analysis, Zhou Kan pondered for a moment.
However, I also feel that the main line of market investment of 'technology growth' seems to be almost expected and fundamentals to further enhance the imagination space.
And the line of 'big finance'.
The current market valuation is extremely low.
At the same time, according to Xu Shen's analysis, there will be a significant change in its fundamentals and future expectations.
In this way, the expectation gap is indeed much larger than the line of 'technological growth', and the probability of funds choosing this direction as the core breakthrough is also greater than that of choosing the line of 'technological growth'.
"Good!" Zhou Kan nodded, "Since the boss already has the overall investment strategy direction in mind, then we ...... Adjust positions in the direction of 'big finance'. ”
Xu Shen bowed slightly, smiled, and continued: "However, although the direction of the investment strategy has been set, there is no need to be too anxious about the position building plan.
Since it won't be a spire, it's likely to be the top of the box.
Then, our reaction time on the strategy switch is obviously sufficient.
Let's use our newly established 'Zexi No. 2' main fund product to build a preliminary position.
The 'Zexi No. 1' fund product can slowly adjust the trading strategy, and gradually reduce our positions in the field of 'large infrastructure' from weak to strong in the subsequent market performance. ”
"Good!" Zhou Kan responded, immediately began to arrange, and made a trading plan for tomorrow.
And when the two of them discussed and planned to adjust the fund's investment strategy and trading strategy.
At this moment, inside and outside the market after closing, the vast number of retail investor groups gathered on the online stock investment discussion platform, everyone's views and remarks, as always, appear extremely radical and positive, no one thinks, or realizes that the core main line of the market of 'big infrastructure' has come to the point where it must be adjusted, and basically no one has found that many concept stocks in the main line of 'big infrastructure' have seen stagflation, and its trend is turning from strong to weak. (End of chapter)