Chapter 671: The Basic Logic of the Bull Market!
Xu Xiang, who was sitting next to Zhou Kan, squinted at the changes in the shape of the two markets, and responded with a smile: "This is the bull market!" As long as there are continued incremental funds to enter the market, as long as the market's outlook is expected to continue to improve, as long as the market still has a relatively strong money-making effect, and as long as the market investment sentiment and investment confidence are still in a relatively active stage, then the trend that has come out will continue to continue.
A short-lived divergence between long and short markets is actually not a bad thing.
The financial trading market is a very free buying and selling market, some people sell, and some people naturally buy.
If the market wants to continue to move forward, only the continuous exchange of chips, and the structural center of gravity of the market chips are constantly changing hands, and gradually moving upward, can we create a continuous 'bull market' market.
Moreover, the relatively aggressive market trading atmosphere.
Especially at this stage, the risk appetite of investors in the entire market is in a continuous rising stage.
All good news will be amplified by this emotional effect, and all bad news will be subconsciously ignored by this emotional effect and weaken the influence.
Even if there is no clear positive impact, under the strong bullish sentiment effect.
Most investors will also subconsciously dig out the corresponding benefits that are not available to create new confidence in their positions.
So, when the market enters the bull market phase.
Even if there is an extreme intraday trend correction in the index, it is generally difficult to hurt the daily sentiment.
What's more, last night's external market trend was very good, and many institutions in the industry are also changing their expectations for the future of the external market.
In this way, the domestic market in yesterday's intraday divergence adjustment.
Once again, it is easy to understand that the investment sentiment of the entire market is not retreating, but is advancing.
However, although the index will open higher or continue to hit a new intraday high under this emotional effect, it is not realistic to break through the continuous long white candle in the trading time before the index enters the historical concentrated hedging area, and the short-term profit market concentrates on selling.
It is very likely that in the subsequent market trend, the index will enter the trend of the previous few months, advancing two and retreating one, or small broken steps and continuing to rise.
After all, if the target of the index is more than 5,000 points.
From 3000 to 3500 points, which is a very heavy range position in the historical hedging disk, if the chip structure in the general direction is completely adjusted without some tossing, the pressure on the future index to hit a higher range position will only be greater, and the height of the bull market will also be seriously restricted. ”
Hearing Xu Shen's analysis, Zhou Kan pondered for a moment and responded: "So the boss thinks that it is completely normal for the market to have a large long-short divergence in this position range, and it is far better to get out of the previous week's high-rise mode and enter a volatile upward trend?" ”
"It's nature!" Xu Shen nodded and said, "Since the last round of bull market, the index has not touched the range of 3,000 to 3,500 points.
According to the psychology of the majority of retail investors.
At the beginning, those funds that were hedged at 4,000 points, 5,000 points, and even 6,000 points, felt that the index had no hope of recovering these historical highs, and there was a high probability that they would cut positions and stop losses on a large scale in the course of time, but the majority of retail investors in the range of 3,000 to 4,000 points.
Their psychology is completely different from the psychology of investors who are above 4,000 points.
The position of this interval is not high, and it is not low to say low.
In other words, they still have some hope in their hearts, and they feel that one day, the index can break through this range and let them untie it, so many of the capital chips in this range are usually not easy to cut positions at a low level, give up the glimmer of hope in their hearts, and admit losses one after another.
For many years, the index has just stopped at 3,000 points.
has always given these people hope, but has never let these people's hope come true.
This leads to the accumulation of hedging disks in this range, which should be the most stressful range in the upward phase of the index.
And such a large pressure range of the hedging plate, there is no strong continuous change of hands, there is no sufficient exchange of chips, relying solely on the continuous positive impact on the news surface, as well as the extremes of emotions, in the form of high fighting, quickly crossed, then it will inevitably lead to the inside of this range The chips are not clean, and the chip structure within this range is not stable.
And once that happens.
After the index is high, the mood once it declines rapidly.
What awaits the market will be a continuous and drastic adjustment, which is very likely to be a vicious extreme killing situation.
Once such a situation occurs, a large number of chips that have not been cleared in the range of 3,000 to 4,000 points will be sold intensively, and the market will not be able to bear it.
When the market can't bear it, the follow-up space of the bull market will not be able to open.
Only by letting the index in this pressure range, through continuous shocks, through continuous hand changes, so that the backlog of chips within this range can be fully exchanged, so that both bears and longs can have full cognition, in order to stabilize the support of the market in this position.
It can also make the market more stable and make the bottom foundation of the bull market more solid.
In general, at this time, the development of the index should be slow rather than fast.
We have to wait for the market bullish sentiment to further ferment, the expectation of the bull market to be recognized by more investor groups, and the over-the-counter capital group to pour more into the market.
At this stage, it is just that the curtain of the bull market has just opened, and the market is still in the time of interweaving and switching between long and short.
At this time, we have to see the actual trend pattern of the market, and in which stage, we must be more patient with the market and have more determination to hold positions. ”
"I agree with what the boss said." Zhou Kan said, "However, once the market pattern returns to the trend of the previous few months, the main line of 'big finance', especially the core logic of investment in the securities sector, will not be so strong!" ”
"The general market volume of 600 billion yuan and the balance of trillions of financial institutions can't support the fundamental transformation of the securities sector?" Xu Shen smiled and said, "What's more, the main institutional groups were not optimistic about the 'big finance' sector before, and the weight of everyone's positions in this main line field was not high in the early days, which led to this big main line, and there was no shortage of follow-up large capital groups to undertake follow-up."
There is also the expectation that the central bank's monetary easing policy is almost open.
I judge......
Even if the index slows down, there is a high probability that the market of the main line of 'big finance' will not slow down, and it is very likely that it will continue to accelerate.
Don't forget, the real driving force of the market is not the real fulfillment of expectations.
It's the anticipation itself.
As long as the logic of the market bull market has not changed, as long as the central bank's intention to promote monetary easing has not changed, as long as the volume of the market can continue to maintain an extremely high level, as long as the balance of the two financial institutions can continue to grow and move closer to the scale of trillions, as long as the weight of many institutional groups in the industry in the direction of "big finance" has not reached a high water mark like the original "infrastructure" and "military industry" main lines.
So, the line of 'big finance' is currently facing the market trend.
There is only one way to go, and there is only one way to go.
Looking at the current entire market, there is no core main line of the future market expectation logic, and the line of 'big finance' is so positive and so strong.
Since we judge that the bull market in the market will not stop.
Judging the range of 3000 points to 4000 points, although there are repeated, but it is bound to be broken through, judging that under the guidance of the continuous money-making effect, the risk appetite of market investors will gradually rise, and the incremental capital group will continue to pour into the market.
Then, we should have firm confidence in the line of 'big finance'.
For the firm market this point......
Mr. Su of the 'Yuhang Department' can be regarded as a good example for all of us.
The entire 'Yuhang system' capital group should now basically shift the focus of their positions to the main line of 'big finance'.
It can be seen through the positions of the main fund products of the "Anzhao Fund" controlled by the "Yuhang Department".
More than a month ago, after the other party almost fully intervened in the main line of 'big finance', it basically did not move its position.
We should also have this kind of concentration and faith.
The curtain of the bull market has just been opened, and "big finance", as the pioneer of the bull market, has been "the bull market has not moved, and the securities go first", and the entire market, the vast majority of smart main capital groups, the unanimous expectation is also the same, since this is the case...... Then we have to follow this logic of expectation and follow the actual trend of the market to invest and operate. ”
Zhou Kan saw Xu Shen speaking, his eyes were full of confidence in the market outlook, and at the same time, he was also full of confidence in the distribution of the weight of the fund's holdings in the direction of the main line of 'big finance', and couldn't help but smile and nodded, and said: "Okay, let's take it for a long time, continue to lock up positions, and wait for the full realization of the expectations of the main line of 'big finance'." ”
Xu Shen nodded, and then put his gaze back on the trading board of the two markets again.
At this time, the two cities have passed the initial call auction period and entered the real call auction period at 9:20.
And after the initial call auction in the first 5 minutes.
At 9:19, a large number of false pending orders were cancelled.
The market situation of the two markets, compared with the moment of 9:15, has obviously fallen, and the general high opening pattern is not so obvious.
Among them, the relatively high-level main areas such as 'infrastructure' and 'military industry', which were hit hard yesterday.
It is already a general trend of opening slightly lower.
In particular, the stock of 'Blue Stone Reloading', which is still highly concerned in the two cities, has reached a decline of 4.21% on its disk at this moment.
Of course, as the majority of investors in the market, as well as the main core and main institutional groups of the two cities, the main line of 'big finance', especially the securities sector and the Internet finance sector, which have continued to lead the market in the two cities in the past few days, are still very strong in the performance of the call auction at the moment.
The index of the securities sector rose by about 1%.
The core constituent stocks in the sector opened 1.55% higher in Western Securities, 1.13% higher in Orient Securities, 0.89% higher in CEFC Securities, and 0.76% higher in Huashang Securities...... Of the dozens of constituent stocks, only about 10% of the stocks opened flat or slightly lower.
The performance of the Internet finance sector is even better than that of the securities sector.
The Internet financial sector index, at the moment has risen 1.35%, the core constituent stocks in the sector field, Straight Flush in the case of yesterday's failure to seal the board, completely withstood the selling pressure, the higher opening range is around 5.21%, Hengsheng Electronics opened 2.33% higher, Jinzheng shares opened 2.11% higher, and Oriental Wealth opened 1.55% higher......
As for the core theme of 'technological growth', which was seriously divided yesterday.
Yesterday's strongest performance of the 'film and television media' sector, at the moment to maintain a slightly higher trend, the rest of the 'Internet software', 'Internet application', 'smart phone industry chain' and other branch concepts, are gradually falling, showing a flat or slightly low opening trend.
The rest of the 'big consumption', 'non-ferrous cycle', 'pharmaceutical business', 'petrochemical'...... and other main lines.
At this moment, the performance has gradually fallen from the general high opening pattern at 9:15 to the current general flat opening or slightly lower opening trend.
Finally, when the time moved from 9:20 a.m., it gradually moved forward to 9:25 a.m.
When the call auction ends in both markets.
I saw that the Shanghai Composite Index finally fixed at a 0.23% increase, only slightly higher; The Shenzhen Index and the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) Index maintained a flat opening trend; The small and medium-sized board index opened slightly lower by 0.21%, and the strongest A50 index, also under the continued strong support of the main line of 'big finance', opened at 0.52% higher, continuing to lead the important core indices of the two cities.
And, in addition to the index performance.
The turnover of the two cities in the entire call auction process has increased again compared with yesterday.
This shows that although the mood in the morning is very good, the internal selling pressure has not been digested, and the differentiation trend of the market, with a high probability, will continue.
In the face of such a market opening situation......
Inside and outside the market, the vast number of investor groups feel that it is somewhat lower than expected.
After all, last night's U.S. stocks rose sharply, the external market trend is booming, even if the news is not substantially positive, according to everyone's expectations, the core indices of the major markets, the opening of the high opening range, should be at least more than 0.5%, now it is just a slight higher opening trend, obviously seriously lower than expected.