Chapter 748: Respect the Market Trend!
Of course, in addition to the buying and selling data of individual stocks.
The overall trading data disclosed by the two cities, as well as the collective trends of institutions, such as the capital trends of the special seat of the 'Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect', are also worthy of attention and discussion.
According to the data of the Dragon and Tiger List disclosed by the two cities, it can be seen that although the net outflow of main funds in the main line of 'big finance' is more serious today, the trading data disclosed by the entire Dragon and Tiger List is still in a state of net buying, that is, among the popular stocks on the list, the main capital group is still in a state of continuous increase, while the retail capital group is in a state of continuous selling.
In terms of the performance of seat trading under the 'Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect'.
Although this seat, among the stocks on the list today, there are some sales, but on the whole, it is still showing a net buying trend, and the amount of net buying funds is still as high as more than 100 million funds.
Therefore, despite today's market trend of the two markets, it is obviously in a downward state.
However, according to the trading data disclosed in the list of dragons and tigers in the two cities, in the discussion of the vast majority of investor groups inside and outside the market, everyone's expectations for the market outlook, and even the investment ideas in their hearts, are still positive and optimistic, no one doubts the pattern of the market bull market, and no one thinks that the Shanghai Index will completely stop at the 3500 point position and fall back to the 3000 point position.
However, even after the release of the data of the Dragon and Tiger List.
Investment sentiment and investment confidence in the two cities remain positive.
However, in the evening, the trend of the external market is still cloudy, especially the US stocks, which continue to open low in the middle of the night, casting a shadow on the global financial market.
The next day, Friday, November 21, arrived.
Under the influence of the U.S. stock market opening low and moving lower, it is also under the influence of other markets in the Asia-Pacific region that have opened lower in early trading.
In the domestic market, the sentiment in early trading has dropped significantly compared to last night.
However, despite the obvious decline in sentiment, there are still very few clear bears in the entire market, inside and outside the market, among the vast investor group.
"It seems that most of the market today is open low."
At around 8:40 a.m., in the trading room of the 'Yinghui No. 2' fund product trading room in the magic capital, Yinghui Fund Company, fund manager Shao Xiaoyun frowned slightly and said: "I originally thought that the Shanghai Index broke through 3500 points, it should be effortless, and the position of 3500 points will not have much resistance, but now it seems that it ...... The external disk does not cooperate, and the Shanghai Index wants to stand at 3500 points and continue to open up the upward market space, which is very difficult! ”
"At 3,500 points, it's not so easy to fully stand firm." Beside Shao Xiaoyun, Liu Changling, head of the fund trading team, responded, "Since the Shanghai Index broke through 3,000 points and entered the bull market stage, especially in the last half a month, the Shanghai Index has risen too fast, and it is almost a continuous short force to go up.
There is no need to go through a violent oscillation back and forth, or to exchange time for space.
In order to fully digest the historical heavy hedging disks in this range field, as well as the large number of profit orders accumulated in the past half a month.
It's hard to really stand at 3,500 points.
In fact, as long as the overall investment confidence of the market, there is no obvious recession, the macro fundamentals are still good, the regulator's attitude towards the market is still positive, the atmosphere of the bull market, and the bull market expectations, have not obviously changed to other directions, the market in this position, adjust it, correct the continuous technical divergence pattern after the continuous short rise, and there is no harm in the follow-up market, but will make the follow-up market go more smoothly. ”
"Starting from the analysis of medium- and long-term investment logic, this is naturally the case." Shao Xiaoyun said, "But starting with the analysis of the short- and medium-term market trends, this is not the case, and we ...... It still has to fall on the current market situation. ”
"What does Mr. Shao think?" Hearing Shao Xiaoyun's words, Liu Changling paused and asked.
Shao Xiaoyun thought for a while and said: "Changling, do you think that if the market enters the adjustment stage, will it be generally adjusted or partially adjusted?" ”
Liu Changling responded: "With such a high liquidity in the current market, a daily turnover of more than 800 billion yuan, and investment confidence is still in continuous progression, and affected by the expected bull market, many capital groups outside the market are still continuing to enter the market."
Under such market fundamentals, even if the market situation and the Shanghai Composite Index briefly encountered upward resistance.
It has been under concentrated selling pressure from historical hedging and short-term unhedging and profit-taking orders.
It is also unlikely that there will be a sustained general decline.
In fact, the market trend in yesterday's market adjustment is obvious, the adjustment of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure', and the low-level main lines such as 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain' have come up, forming a local money-making effect in the market under the index decline.
I think that if there is a structural adjustment trend in the market in the future.
There is a high probability that it will also be the pattern trend of yesterday's market, after all, the extreme adjustment trend like last Monday will definitely not be the norm, so we don't have to worry too much. ”
"I also think it should be a local adjustment of the strong main line." Shao Xiaoyun said, "I'm wondering if we can do a partial position adjustment in the market adjustment stage, and operate on the logic of the market's 'high and low switching' to reduce the drawdown of the fund's net value, and at the same time make some short- and medium-term profits." ”
"The logic of 'high and low switching' should be no problem." Liu Changling pondered for a while and said, "According to yesterday's market performance, under the logic of 'high and low switching', there are many market directions, and the variables are also very large, and it is difficult to say whether there is sustainability."
If we partially adjust our positions, we will reduce our holdings of the core weighted stocks of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' that we have already completed.
Go after these low-priced stocks that are showing a catch-up trend.
What if these stocks are not sustainable after a brief rally? Or rather...... Coldly, in terms of regulators and macro news, there is another wave of goodness that exceeds expectations?
At that time, the main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' will rise rapidly.
We don't have time to chase it.
Moreover, in this case, once you lose your positions and chips, miss the opportunity to buy back, and step on the wrong market rhythm, the subsequent operation will be more troublesome.
I feel like abandoning the core thread of greater market certainty.
To chase the main line of the 'top-up' pattern with short-term logic is a bit of a magnification and grasping the small, which is not very cost-effective, and the transaction risk is not small. ”
"That'...... What do you mean? Shao Xiaoyun saw that Liu Changling did not agree with his idea, hesitated for a moment, and asked, "Is it possible that we just watch the market adjust and continue to hold static positions, not moving like a mountain?" ”
Shao Xiaoyun thought for a while and said: "In fact, it is also good to continue to maintain static positions, the divergence in the bull market is not a selling point, it is usually a buying point, we just expect and guess that the market will be below 3500 points in this position, adjust for a period of time, but whether it will be adjusted, before the market comes out, no one knows!"
But what is certain is that regardless of whether the market will adjust or not.
The two core main lines of the market, "big finance" and "big infrastructure", are expected to cut interest rates and reserve requirements by the central bank in the bull market, the macroeconomic strategic planning expectation of "the road to the new era and the Maritime Silk Road", and the expectation of "reform and restructuring of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises...... This crowd is expected to be under the factors.
It is ironclad that it will continue to rise, and it will continue to refresh the current stock price position and create a higher space.
After all, these expected benefits have not materialized.
The huge group of incremental funds outside the market has not yet entered the market.
If we take the initiative to give up the chips with high certainty of these two core main lines and chase those low-level main line chips that are not so certain but are currently performing well, we will give up the certainty in the medium and long term, and choose the investment opportunities that are not so certain in the short and medium term!
Of course, if the market moves next, it is indeed less than expected.
The situation of adjustment is gradually becoming clearer.
Then, it is also possible to appropriately reduce a part of the chips, reduce the current position level of our fund, leave a part of the available liquidity in hand, and seek opportunities to increase positions at a low level.
It's just that I firmly disagree and follow the current pattern of the market.
Trade in the direction of 'high and low switching'. ”
After listening to Liu Changling's words, Shao Xiaoyun pondered carefully for a while, and said: "Okay, then let's take a look, if the adjustment of the market is indeed becoming more and more obvious, then according to what you said, we will first reduce part of the fund's position, so as to avoid the market's drawdown, and control the drawdown of the fund's net value within a small range." ”
Since Liu Changling did not agree to adjust his position and exchange shares, he changed his trading ideas.
Shao Xiaoyun thinks that the only way to control the net value drawdown of fund products in the possible continuous adjustment of the market is to control the fund position.
With the continuous communication between the two, as well as the pre-market market analysis and investment strategy analysis.
Before you know it, the time has entered 9:15, and the two cities ushered in the initial call auction.
I saw that the stagnant two markets quickly began to beat when the time hand just crossed 9:15, and a few seconds later, the market pattern of the two markets was revealed.
According to the individual stock pattern of the two cities shown.
In the entire market, there are more than 2,000 stocks, and there are nearly 1,200 stocks in the red, barely more than half.
Yesterday, the related industry sectors and conceptual plates in the field of 'big consumption', as well as the two major conceptual themes of 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain', are at the forefront of the industry sector and concept sector of the two cities.
As for the continuous surge in the early stage, it is the core weight of the main line to support the market.
The two main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure', related industry sectors and concept plates, still continued yesterday's weak form, and most of the related industry sectors and concept plates showed a slight downward trend.
Among them, the securities sector opened 0.44% lower, and the Internet finance sector opened 0.53% lower.
The building materials sector opened 0.41% lower; The building decoration sector opened 0.38% lower; The commercial real estate development sector opened 0.31% lower; The machinery and equipment sector opened 0.29% lower; The steel sector opened 0.27% lower; The public transport sector opened 0.25% lower; The non-public transportation sector opened 0.23% lower.
And yesterday opened high and went low, and finally closed sharply down the main line of the 'military industry'.
The 'national defense and military' sector opened more than 0.6% lower, showing signs of leading the decline in the industry sector of the two cities.
As for the weighted industry sectors in the two main areas of 'big finance' in 'banking and insurance', they are showing a trend of flat opening, and their relative performance is still relatively stable, which is worthy of being the townstone of the market.
In addition to the core main line of the market, the performance of popular industry sectors and concept plates.
A number of popular stocks in the two cities performed.
The check of 'Huake Sugon', which has the highest attention and discussion among market investors, directly presents a trend of one-word price limit at this moment, and the price limit board is sealed, with more than 100,000 hands.
The check of the 'Shanghai Ganglian', which ranks second in the heat of the two cities, opened 5.12% higher, and the initial active buying on the disk is also relatively positive.
The third-ranked 'Shanghai Sanmao' opened 4.65% higher.
After that, the initial opening of 'all-access education' was 6.39%; 'Bluestone Heavy Load' initially opened 4.59% lower; 'Chengfei Integration' directly appeared in the trend of falling limit one-word board, and the falling limit sealed orders reached 36,200 hands; 'Straight Flush' opened 1.22% lower, the long and short divergence on the disk was larger, and the initial plan was to be combined into a single delivery, which was as high as 1122 hands; 'Great Wisdom' opened 0.89% lower, and the divergence on the market was also large.
There is also 'Oriental Fortune' opened 1.11% lower; 'CEFC Securities' opened 0.52% lower; 'Hua Investment Capital' opened 0.75% lower; 'Huaxin Securities' opened 0.62% lower; 'Western Securities' opened 0.31% lower; 'Huaguo South Car' opened 0.21% lower; 'Huaguo North Car' opened 0.19% lower......
A group of popular stocks, the number of low and high openings, almost half each.
It is still relatively consistent with the overall market performance of the two cities.
"The main line of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' continues to be weak!"
At 9:16, next door to the 'Yinghui No. 2' fund product trading room, in the 'Yinghui No. 1' fund product trading room, Yu Lei, the head of the trading team, stared at the market pattern of the two cities that had begun to collect auctions, frowned slightly, and continued: "It seems that the market adjustment is inevitable, and the core main lines of the market, the form of 'high and low switching', with the efforts of the main funds from all walks of life, have finally been a little successful switching." ”
"yes!" Beside Yu Lei, fund manager Liu Guanhai also stared at the disk, and said with emotion, "The trend of the technical side, although not necessarily accurate, but also has a certain reference, the Shanghai Index, the A50 index, as well as the 'big finance' main line of securities, Internet finance and other sectors, the K-line form divergence is too serious, all kinds of funds in the undertaking, there was already some hesitation, now the external market is weakening, the internal macro surface, and there is no new blockbuster beyond the expected good support, to undertake the decline of the capital group, profit and unhedging concentrated out, The trend naturally went in the direction of adjustment.
In other words......
For the core main line of 'big finance', especially the securities, Internet finance sectors, and even the Shanghai Index and A50 index.
The K-line pattern is gradually returning to the important moving average, which is the least resistance to the direction of development, which no one can stop, and we have to respect the market. (End of chapter)