Chapter 752: Opportunity Trade-off in the Hot Spot Rotation!
"Hey, in the past two days, the net value of our fund has withdrawn a lot!"
In the continuous fierce trading of the market, at about 11:05, Yuhang, Yuhang Investment Company, the main fund trading room, has been observing the trend of the disk, and guiding the members of their trading group, Wang Can, who used a small position to do T in the day, saw that the 'CEFC Securities', a thick-eyed securities weight stock, has fallen by nearly 4% in the day, and couldn't help but sigh softly, and said: "In the past two days, the market has changed, and the main decline is all the constituent stocks held by our fund products. It's really evil. ”
"What's there to be evil about?" Next to Wang Can, fund trading manager Zhao Lijun responded with a smile, "The adjustment of the bull market stage is normal, strong stocks make up for the fall, and weak stocks make up for the rise, which causes the overall valuation level of the two cities to once again reach a relatively stable equilibrium situation."
At the same time, it also gives the next market main rise and brewing opportunities, isn't it normal?
Even if it's a bull market.
Even if a stock is strong, it can't keep rising every day, right? Nor can a tree rise to heaven.
Besides, these weighted stocks are different from the concept stocks that can continue to speculate only on emotions, such as 'Huake Sugon, Bluestone Heavy Equipment, and Shanghai Ganglian'.
There is no sustained positive support, and there is no substantial fundamental shift to impress.
There is no increasingly clear expectation of an outburst of performance.
It is still very difficult for these weighted stocks to continue to open up space.
Besides, don't let the weak stocks, as well as the low-level mainline stocks, fill in the valuation that has recently opened, in the market, the valuation gap between the strong high-level mainline stocks and the low-level mainline stocks is too wide and too big, and the strong mainline stocks will not go far. ”
"That's right." Wang Can said, "But looking at the profit drawdown of millions or tens of millions every day in the shareholding account, I still feel uncomfortable, and I feel more uncomfortable than losing money in my own account." ”
Zhao Lijun said with a smile: "This shows that you have enough sense of responsibility and have the mental qualities and conditions to become a fund manager." ”
"I believe you're a ghost." Wang Can heard his ridicule and responded, "I have a few catties and taels myself, I still know, if I really let me manage fund products, it will definitely not work, I think it's good to be a trading team leader, but sometimes my hands are itchy, and I always want to sell when I make money." ”
At the current stage, their fund's holdings on the main line of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.
Its profits are already very lucrative.
If it weren't for Su Yu's basic trading strategy, which did not allow each major fund product to reduce the dynamic position level, Wang Can might have sold the main line of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' in the special sale account long ago.
"Lao Zhao, you said that we will not do T for the time being, transfer point positions, and buy some of the main line stocks of 'big consumption' that are currently hot, what do you think?" After a pause, Wang Can said again, "You just said that the bull market is adjusted, strong stocks make up for the fall, and weak stocks make up for the rise, since that's the case...... Why don't you make money if you have money? ”
When Zhao Lijun heard Wang Can's words, his eyes briefly moved away from the fierce trading of the two cities, glared at him fiercely, and said: "Wang Can, I advise you not to think about it, and you also know the trading rules, this is not a question of why you don't make money if you have money, but the position adjustment you said has deviated from the direction of our main line of investment." ”
"The boss just told us not to lower the dynamic position level, and didn't say that it is not allowed to adjust positions between individual stocks." Wang Can responded, "You just say why not, right?" ”
Although he has this in mind.
However, without the consent and instruction of Zhao Lijun, the fund trading manager, he will definitely not move his position and trade according to his own ideas.
Zhao Lijun responded: "Do you know the trade-offs of opportunities in the transaction?
We are not retail investors, there is no way to chase the rise and kill the fall, quickly move and convert, you go to chase hot spots, what if the main line of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' rises again? Could it be that time...... You're cutting the meat again and chasing it back?
And we trade in the market.
What is the core main line and what main line has the continuous expectation logic of the medium and long term, we still have to know in mind.
The boss allows us to maintain the dynamic positions on the main line of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure', and we are not allowed to reduce our positions, so we can only do T with small positions to slowly further reduce costs, appropriately earn excess profits in the market, and continue to train traders to have a sense of disk.
This is a securities investment strategy that is formulated after careful consideration.
In the development of the market, it has always been a market pattern of 'the strong are always strong, and the weak are always weak', even if it is a bull market, it will not be an exception.
You are currently looking at the line of 'big consumption', which is rising hotly.
However, you must know that under the overall investment logic and future expectations of the current market, the line of 'big consumption' is not the core market line of the market.
In other words, this main line is just the demand to make up for the increase.
It is not a stock price reversal caused by various factors such as changes in fundamentals, changes in future expectations, and potential for performance explosions.
That is, this line, at present, only has a short-term rebound momentum, and the long-term upside potential of its stock price is currently inferior to the main line of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.
In market investment, how can you abandon high-quality chips with cost advantages and chase inferior chips?
If you want to adjust some positions and chase the hot spot of 'big consumption', you are putting the cart before the horse.
Also, if you want to obtain excess profits in the market, it is inevitable to bear the uncertain retracement of the market, to know that profit and loss are of the same origin, we are in the holdings, it is impossible to avoid some necessary downward callbacks, if you always want to avoid, it is likely to avoid the opportunity to rise after the adjustment. ”
"Manager Zhao is right." At this time, Zhu Tianyang also responded with a smile, "As traders, what we should pay attention to the most is the trade-off of opportunities, some downward adjustments, which seem fierce and uncomfortable, but they are necessary."
The two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.
This round of adjustment is mainly due to the selling pressure formed by the joint centralized selling of profit orders and unhedging orders during the vacuum period of the news surface.
Such a selling pressure was cleared as soon as possible and the chips were re-formed.
On the contrary, it is easier to make the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' out of a higher market height and a smoother upward trend.
Therefore, the adjustment at this time, to put it bluntly, is to make the follow-up market go better.
The current net value drawdown of our fund is also in preparation for the subsequent net value to burst to a new height.
If there is no such retracement, there is no adjustment trend of cleaning up short-term profits and untying hedging, blindly deviating from the technical side and continuing to attack strongly, continuing to hold high and fighting, and continue to open up the valuation gap with many low-level main lines in the market, such as the core weight stocks in the main line of 'big consumption'.
Well, the end result.
That is, the higher you go, the more profit-taking orders and unhedging orders are gathered.
And the group of funds that are willing to undertake at a high level will also be obviously hesitant after the valuation gap between the high-level main line and the low-level main line is too wide.
This will significantly weaken the capacity and willingness of the growing funding community.
However, when more and more profit-taking orders and unhedging orders are piled up, the size and willingness of the capital groups willing to undertake them are gradually weakened and reduced.
Then, the market is very natural and unsustainable.
And at that time, once the market turns, it will inevitably be a landslide and tsunami, which is very violent.
Moreover, due to the overdraft of too much long funds, it is difficult to restart the upward trend after the market turns rapidly and too many longs who stand guard at a high level to undertake funds.
Therefore, it is not necessarily a good thing to keep attacking strongly and continue to force the short to rise.
Timely adjustment, building a chip platform ladder again and again, and rising steadily step by step, so that the stock price can move forward in sync with the explosion of expectations and performance, is not necessarily a bad thing, but I think that just stop and go, steady upward is the best trend.
In other words, we're trading.
There are only two points that affect the profit obtained, one is the cost of buying, and the other is the position of selling.
As long as the market trend can make us sell higher, then we will not be able to maximize the excess profit of the market? ”
"It is no problem to continue to adhere to the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'." Hearing Zhu Tianyang's analysis, Liu Yuan also emphasized again, "The adjustment is for a better rise, and I believe that it won't be long before many of the weighted stocks held by our fund can easily break through new highs." ”
"It should be by the beginning of December, and the entire main line of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' will have an obvious upward trend and restart." Zhang Guobing, who had been silent, also responded at this time.
"Why is it the beginning of December?" Wang Can asked.
His market analysis ability and trading level are limited by talent, and there is really a big gap compared to a few people.
Therefore, what everyone can understand, or what can be understood at all, he often needs to think carefully or get to the bottom of it.
Zhang Guobing continued with a smile: "Because at the beginning of December, the expectation that the central bank can reverse the entire macro monetary policy will gradually become clear about the central bank's interest rate cut and RRR cut. ”
"There's another reason." In a simple discussion, in front of the main control computer of several fund products of the company, Li Meng, who had been quietly observing the changes in the disk, interjected, "At the beginning of next month, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting can directly determine which way the macro monetary policy will turn." ”
"Mr. Li thinks that the wind direction is more positive or more negative?" Zhang Guobing couldn't help but ask.
Li Meng replied with a smile: "Regardless of whether the external wind direction is good or negative, it will have an impact in the short term, but in the long run, the central bank's monetary policy shift should be a high probability, after all, the economic recovery needs to be supported by monetary easing, and in the second half of this year, inflation data, as well as various economic data, are quite supportive of the central bank to relax monetary policy to stimulate the market, of course...... For the stock market, the focus is not on how much the central bank can cut interest rates and RRR cuts, but on the huge expectation that the macro monetary policy will turn under the action of cutting interest rates and RRR cuts. ”
Zhang Guobing nodded and said: "I also think so, the future macro monetary policy easing, there must be a high probability, coupled with the bull market atmosphere, the macroeconomic strategic concept of investment-driven economy, 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' The two main lines, there will definitely be huge investment opportunities in the future." ”
With the trading room, everyone's analysis of the disk and the outlook for the future.
and re-assertion of positions and the main direction of investment.
At this time, the trading time has unconsciously entered 11:30, and the two cities ushered in the closing moment at noon, and the disk was frozen.
I saw that after the last half hour of trading before midday.
In the end, the Shanghai index was fixed at 3422.43 points, down 1.23% during the day, while the Shenzhen Index and the ChiNext Index closed down 0.75% and 0.39% respectively, of which the A50 index closed down 1.76%, and the small and medium-sized board index maintained the situation of closing in the red market, closing up 0.13%.
A total of 983 stocks in the two cities were in the red, accounting for 48% of the number of individual stocks in the market.
This number of red-disc stocks fully shows that although the market is in adjustment, the local money-making effect is not bad.
At the same time, the half-day turnover of the two cities reached more than 430 billion, compared with the same period yesterday, continued to shrink.
In addition to the performance of several core indexes, red-plate stocks, and trading volume in the market, the core main line of the two cities, as well as the performance of many popular stocks.
Look at the ...... as a whole
The whole market still maintains the three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', and 'smart phone industry chain', related industry sectors, concept plates, and their related core weight stocks and popular concept plates to lead the two cities, while 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry' and their related industry sectors and concept plates led the market pattern of the two cities.
The top 20 stocks in the attention and discussion of investor groups in the two cities.
In addition to the stocks of 'Sugon, Shanghai Sanmao, Shanghai Ganglian, and All Access Education'.
Other ...... Popular stocks that are biased towards the main line of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' basically closed in a falling state, among them, 'Blue Stone Heavy Equipment', 'Chengfei Integration' fell to the limit, and 'Flush, Great Wisdom, Oriental Fortune', the three musketeers in the Internet financial sector, all fell by more than 5%.
The popular stocks that are biased towards the main line of 'big consumption', 'smart phone industry chain' and 'mobile Internet' basically closed in a red market, among them, 'Sanjiang Shopping, Huaqingbao, Anjie Technology' daily limit, 'LeTV, Netspeed Technology, Huaguo Software' all rose by more than 5%. (End of chapter)