"Scared?" Zhang Guangnian was slightly stunned, and joked with a smile, "You are not satisfied, the market is not good, you always complain, the market is too good, you still complain." ”

Liao Guanghua was not angry at Zhang Guangnian's teasing, but said seriously: "Lao Zhang, don't you really think that the market has changed too fast in the past month or so?" In particular, the progressive explosion rate of turnover, as well as the continuous skyrocketing speed of financing balances, the turnover has increased from an average of two or three hundred billion yuan to an average of 900 billion now, and the financing balance has increased from more than 700 billion yuan at the beginning to more than 1.1 trillion yuan now.

The burst speed of this amount of energy ......

I remember the last round of bull market, the gradual increase in market turnover, and the incremental increase of several times.

It will take at least half a year to catalyze, but now it takes less than a month to catalyze to such a point, these ...... Isn't it scary?

There is also a change in market sentiment and a change in investment confidence, which is also too fast.

More than a month ago, when the Shanghai Composite Index did not succeed in breaking through 3,000 points, the market's investment sentiment was obviously in a big divergence.

However, if you look at the overall market investment sentiment now, it has basically turned into a consistent bull market expectation sentiment.

This change in mood is truly astonishing.

It stands to reason that changes in the market, especially changes in investment confidence and capital, take time to digest slowly, but today's market ...... It didn't follow the normal logic and development at all, so I felt a little unsettled.

I always feel that the foundation of this round of bull market outbreak does not seem to be so solid, and there are always some hidden dangers! ”

"You, it's just unfounded." Zhang Guangnian smiled and said, "When was the last round of bull market?" '06, '07, right? At that time, what was the domestic environment? What is the environment for the dissemination of information and information? And now......

It's the era of mobile Internet.

The Internet user group is several times more than in 06 and 07? It's a tenfold, dozens of times growth.

And the speed of information transmission on the Internet is at least dozens or even hundreds of times that of the paper media era.

In other words, the current speed of market information dissemination is not the same as the beginning, whether it is the market is negative or good, the speed of fermentation, the speed of impact on investors, compared with the beginning, is a geometric multiple growth, and when the information affects the speed of geometric multiples.

The market fluctuates, and it is difficult not to increase geometrically.

In other words, every move in the market now, its emotional reaction will be much more violent than at the beginning, and it must be much more violent to be normal.

And this further contributes to the market's ups and downs and trend changes.

In addition, due to the rapid acceleration of information dissemination, the smart money in the market has become more and more.

Moreover, the capital group in the field, the ability to tap opportunities and concentrate on speculation has also become much faster and faster than before.

So, all things considered......

I think it is very normal for this round of bull market to break out so quickly, the market volume, and the investment sentiment and investment confidence to reverse so quickly.

Now that the market trend has been formed, the certainty of a bull market is getting higher and higher.

Then don't worry too much.

The position of 3500 points, since it has fully broken through, and fully released the historical hedging disk of the range of 3000 points to 3500 points of the Shanghai Index, it shows that the market's long-term consistency expectations are still very strong, and it also shows that the Shanghai Index should not easily fall back. ”

"I'm not worried about the Shanghai Composite Index falling back." Liao Guanghua said, "I'm worried that the Shanghai Composite Index will rise too fast, the chip structure will be unstable, and too much will overdraft the market's long power." ”

Zhang Guangnian said with a smile: "The self-regulation ability of the market has its own market, and we, as market participants, can only follow the market trend to adapt to investment and trading under the condition that we cannot change the development of the market trend, but in the short and medium term, as the core main lines that support the development of the market, such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry', there will be no problems in investment logic and expected development." ”

"Regarding the rumors circulating in the market in December, the central bank cut interest rates and cut the reserve requirement, is there any relevant internal information?" Hearing Zhang Guangnian talk about the short- and medium-term investment logic of the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', Liao Guanghua paused for a while, and said, "At present, the line of 'big finance' is so aggressive, mainly because of the expectations brought up by this news, if the news cannot be fulfilled and the expectation of the monetary policy turn in the macro market is true or false, then the follow-up market trend of the 'big finance' line is uncertain, at least ...... It shouldn't be as smooth as this time. ”

Zhang Guangnian responded: "According to the information I can hear, I haven't heard of this matter yet, of course, there are insiders who have revealed that there is such an expectation, but there is no more definite news, but...... After all, in terms of the current macroeconomic environment, monetary liquidity is still tight, and the short-term financing environment of many enterprises has not changed much, and in terms of financial institutions, the bank is still relatively tight. ”

"Other measures to improve market liquidity have little impact on the trend of the financial market." Liao Guanghua said, "The key is to let the investor groups inside and outside the market understand the signal of a comprehensive reversal of the macro monetary capital in the market, so as to continue to maintain the pattern of the market bull market and further open up the market speculation space!" If this expectation does not hold, or if it falls short.

Then I guess......

The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3,500 points, and if it continues to rise, it will be difficult to continue to break through.

After all, the turnover of the two markets in the current market has exploded to about 900 billion, and the financing balance has also increased to about 1.1 trillion yuan.

This amount of capital pouring into the market is basically a full manifestation of the power of the bulls.

If the macro liquidity cannot be reversed, and the domestic monetary tightening expectations cannot be fully transformed into monetary easing expectations, then there will be no major basic conditions to support the bull market, and it will be difficult to have a larger incremental capital group with higher investment risk appetite to continue to pour into the market.

And there is no large enough incremental funding group to continue to play a role.

In this position, the Shanghai Composite Index also wants to continue to play a higher space upwards and produce a more popular money-making effect, which will be quite difficult. ”

"Macro monetary policy, turn to the easing situation of this expectation ......" Zhang Guangnian continued, "if the Federal Reserve recently does not fix any moths, it should still be a high probability, I think the current 'big finance' line, the market is not wrong, of course, about the core of the main line of emotional progression, is indeed too fierce, especially the securities sector, the Internet financial sector of the short-term rise, it should be said that far beyond the expectations of the majority of investors in the market, very few people can think of these two major sector index, Can you double the position in just one month, right? ”

Liao Guanghua nodded with a smile and continued: "It's really unimaginable, but the most unimaginable and the most beyond everyone's expectations should be said to be the line of 'sub-new stocks', right?" In the past month, the line of 'sub-new stocks' is really crazy, not to mention doubling stocks, 3 times, 5 times stocks, also abounding. ”

"The 'sub-IPO' sector is completely a carnival of market funds." Zhang Guangnian said, "These new stocks listed in the second half of this year, the performance after listing, is really shocking, who would have thought that the mediocre 'Blue Stone Heavy Loading' stock, after listing, can go out of more than ten times the rise?" ”

Liao Guanghua said with a smile: "The line of 'new stocks', although the speculation is crazy, but the stimulating effect of the market is still relatively positive, if it were not for the extremely exaggerated money-making effect and hype height of the 'Blue Stone Reloading' check, I estimate that the Shanghai Index should not break through to the height of 3500 points so quickly, and the market turnover can not be so rapid.

This looks at the market trend from June to October in the second half of this year.

During the period from June to October, the market and money-making effect of the two cities were actually not bad under the leadership of the two core main lines of 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'.

But when it comes to the progressiveness of sentiment and the degree of incremental funds, it cannot be compared with November. ”

"That's for sure." Zhang Guangnian took over and continued, "I think this is also the reason why the regulators have basically let the speculation of market funds in the past two months or so, right?" After all, at this critical time when emotions and incremental capital groups are needed to vigorously stimulate the market, so as to derive a comprehensive bull market, the regulator must also hope to use the speculation of the capital group and the exaggerated money-making effect of the market to bring out the entire bull market situation. ”

"In order to open up direct financing channels in the market and open up the way and lay the foundation for the registration system in the subsequent market, the current attitude of the regulator is certainly beyond doubt." Liao Guanghua said, "But everything is too much, the current macro capital changes, has not really happened, but the market's incremental capital group, has exploded to an extremely terrifying point, whether it is the Shanghai market, or the Shenzhen market, basically have hit a record high in turnover."

So many groups of incremental funds have entered the market......

The nature of the funds entering the market, as well as the sources of these funds, are still very vigilant.

I feel that with the continuous rise of the market speculation and the sharp increase in the investment risk appetite of the entire market, more and more leveraged funds are pouring in.

If we blindly allow the expansion of the leveraged capital group.

Then, once there is an extreme huge adjustment in the follow-up market, and the leveraged funds are forced to recede, the market situation will be very miserable.

Perhaps, there will be a systemic market liquidity risk problem! ”

When Zhang Guangnian heard Liao Guanghua's words, he was slightly startled, paused for a moment, and then replied: "It should be...... Not really, right? On the whole, the current market risk should still be controllable, and compared with the global financial market, the overall valuation of our big A is still relatively low, and the continuous adjustment of extremes is unlikely to occur.

Of course, if we allow the market to continue to expand rapidly.

At the same time, the market is also rising rapidly, and the valuation level of the entire market has begun to enter the bubble stage from a reasonable range.

Naturally, there is still a risk.

It's just that at that time, as the regulators of the market, the leaders should also be aware of this, right?

Overall, I think this ...... It's not a problem we should consider at the moment, let's just analyze the market and analyze the investment direction. ”

"Haha...... That's right. Liao Guanghua laughed, "Anytime the sky falls, there will always be tall people on top of it, we short people, we really don't have to worry so much." ”

Zhang Guangnian nodded, pondered for a moment, couldn't help but change the topic, and said: "Lao Liao, the main fund products you manage, in addition to the holding chips of the core main line of 'big finance', there should be a lot of holding chips in the line of 'big infrastructure', right?" ”

Liao Guanghua said: "The position chips of the core main line of 'infrastructure' have been reduced a lot, what's wrong? Is there any new and huge trend on the core concept of 'the road to the new era, the Maritime Silk Road', or related policies? ”

Zhang Guangnian responded: "I'm not sure, but I think that the line of 'big infrastructure' should still be promising, and about the macroeconomic grand strategic concept of 'New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road', its policy support, how many times over the years of economic strategic planning, I have never seen such a big force, it is estimated that this line is to be continued as an important economic development route."

However, although there is no big new news about the macroeconomic grand strategic concept of 'the road to the new era and the Maritime Silk Road', there is a lot of new news about the 'reform and reorganization of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises'.

I heard that the State Council is promoting more 'mergers and acquisitions of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises' project initiatives, preparing to integrate resources to better solve the problem of overcapacity in many industries, as well as the development of the industry. ”

"Hmm!" Liao Guanghua pondered for a moment, nodded, and said, "I have also heard a lot about this news, okay, I will pay attention to the follow-up, appropriately take profit on the chips of the main line of 'big finance', and then focus on the layout of a number of central and state-owned enterprise stocks with 'merger and reorganization' expectations." ”

"Do you think those stocks have this kind of 'merger and reorganization expectations?' After a pause, Liao Guanghua asked again.

Zhang Guangnian thought for a while and responded: "It's hard to say, automobiles, high-speed rail, steel, cement, ...... and other fields, there should be strong expectations, right? As for the specific target, it can only look at the news, but there have been a few checks recently, but they have gone quite strongly, and I don't know if there is any news. ”

"Do you mean 'Huagong International', 'Huaguo Construction', 'Huaguo Railway Construction', 'Huaguo Communications Construction', 'Huaguo South Car', 'Huaguo North Car'...... This batch of 'Huazitou' infrastructure mainline weighted stocks, right? Liao Guanghua said, "These tickets, the recent trend is indeed a little beyond expectations, and look at the recent market disclosure of the transaction data, some time ago, has been in the 'big infrastructure', 'military industry' main line of the field of significant reduction, the main line of 'big finance' 'Yu Hang' funds, actually killed back, is indeed a bit evil, but I haven't heard any news." (End of chapter)