Zhao Lijun paused for a moment and continued to respond: "That can't, since the pattern of the market bull market has been laid, it will definitely not end so soon, I just think that the first wave of the bull market is rising, in this position, I am afraid that it should come to an end, after all, this kind of continuous crazy upward breakthrough skyrocketing, in the case of the amount of energy can not fully keep up, it is still difficult to continue, because the rapid advance of the index will rapidly increase countless profits."

After the previous continuous rise in the market, the short- and medium-term profit orders in the market have piled up very seriously.

Now, in such a sharp rise.

The group of profit-taking funds piled up in the market is even more serious.

Moreover, this part of the profit-making funds, in the case of seeing the market soaring rapidly and the chips in the hands of a large profit, it is very likely that it is difficult to resist not selling.

That's why I'm worried that this kind of continuous shorting is a bit too much. ”

"Shouldn't it, isn't it that the more it rises, the less pressure it will be?" Wang Can said, "Why is it that the more it rises, the greater the risk?" ”

"Manager Zhao's analysis is right." At this time, Zhu Tianyang thought about it for a while, and then said, "The market bullish sentiment has progressed to this extent, and in the short term, even if it is good, it is difficult to stimulate the mood again, and under this extreme emotion, almost all the active long capital forces will quickly pour into the market."

When this wave of active bullish funds is quickly exhausted in the exponential surge.

Then, the potential bullish power will naturally be exhausted.

In the process of the gradual weakening of the bulls' power, after the sharp rise of the index, the group of short- and medium-term profit-taking funds is still accumulating.

At that time, once the new influx of bullish capital power, after being greatly exhausted, it will not be able to effectively undertake the market.

The trend of the disk will naturally reverse quickly.

And the group of profit-making funds that have been accumulating will naturally concentrate on selling chips and taking profits in this case.

This is also the fundamental logic of the conversion of long and short patterns in the market.

After all, although the drive of market conditions and individual stock prices is driven by the combined force of factors, the most fundamental driving force is the ultimate combined force of capital.

Once buying weakens, selling surges, regardless of whether the market continues to be positive.

Then the stock price and index, it will naturally be difficult to maintain an upward trend. ”

"But the trend generally has a certain inertia." Hearing the worries in the hearts of Zhu Tianyang and Zhao Lijun, Liu Yuan, who pondered for a while, also responded at this time, "As long as the pattern of the market bull market remains unchanged, the macro fundamentals that support the market bull market, and the most important regulatory attitude remain unchanged, and the underlying investment logic of the entire bull market is still in place, then the long-term upward trend of the market will not change."

As for the short-term trend change, as well as the short- and medium-term adjustment, it should also be a benign adjustment.

What's more, the current market, the entire investment sentiment, investment confidence, has developed into a rather aggressive situation.

In this situation, the high-quality chips in the field will always be concerned by the continuous influx of incremental funds.

In the entire market, there are so many core mainline weighted stocks and high-quality growth stocks with a tough investment logic and a tough expectation logic......

In other words, there is a limit to the number of good chips in the market.

The result of the development of limited chips and the continuous influx of incremental funds is that as the market progresses, the stock price of high-quality chips will only get higher and higher.

Therefore, I think the market will have short- and medium-term adjustment needs.

We should also hold on to the high-quality chips in our hands, be fearless of adjustments, and continue to look forward to the future. ”

"National soldier, what do you think?" Hearing the discussion of several people, Li Meng, who was sitting next to the main control computer in the trading room, looked at a few people, pondered for a while, and did not express his opinion directly, but turned his gaze to Zhang Guobing, who has always had a unique view on the interpretation of the market, and asked, "What do you think about the current market trend?" ”

Zhang Guobing pondered for a moment, looked away from the computer screen in front of him, stood up and said: "Back to Mr. Li, I think it is still necessary for us to adjust our trading strategy, gradually shrink the range of positions, and at the same time reduce positions and take profits, so as to instantly harvest the profits of the rapidly expanding disk." ”

"Oh?" Li Meng looked slightly surprised, and said with a smile, "Let's talk about it specifically." ”

Zhang Guobing paused for a moment before continuing: "On the whole, the macro fundamentals are improving, the trend of the peripheral market is also improving, and the regulator is also continuing to release good news to the market, as well as the macro capital side, which is also continuing to develop in a good direction."

From the analysis of the underlying logic of the bull market of the entire market, there is still no problem with the logic of the continuation of the bull market.

In other words, the macro trend of the bull market will definitely not end here.

However, as the asset manager of fund products, in addition to the analysis of macro trends, our primary responsibility is to be responsible for the net value of the fund products we manage, and to be responsible for the majority of investors who trust us.

Instead, they are responsible for the net value of the fund product.

Then the first point we consider is the trend of the net value of the fund.

Just now, Manager Zhao and Manager Zhu have analyzed that the current market has come to this position, and the short- and medium-term profit orders have been piled up too seriously.

As far as the current market is concerned......

The potential power of long funds and the potential strength of short funds have shown a trend of reversal of strength and weakness.

As the market continues to rise short, the bulls of the past will also be the bears of today, and the bears who have been fully shorted before, or even singing shorts, may develop into the bulls at this moment.

The long-short pattern of the market, as well as the long-short power, are not static as the market continues to change.

We need to have a clear understanding of the market and know which stage of market development the market has reached.

In the case that the strength of the market's long and short funds and the strength and weakness of the pattern have begun to reverse, whether the market is currently in a state of continuous rise or consolidation, the adjustment trend is impossible to avoid.

There is no way to quickly digest the excessive accumulation of short- and medium-term profit-taking funds through the continuous rise of the index as before.

What's more, the index has risen continuously before, and it is possible to adjust the chip structure while digesting the profits.

That's because the general emotional atmosphere in the market at that time was not as crazy as it is now, and there were not a few bears and bulls in the entire market.

As the saying goes, if there are differences, there is a market.

If there is a disagreement, there is the core point of the market, that is, the disagreement will cause a change of hands, which will lead to a continuous change in the chip structure, and will make the chips in the field constantly change hands, so that the profit plate will always remain in a relatively constant state, so as not to cause too much continuous pressure on the market disk.

However, at present, the investment sentiment of the entire market has fully shifted to a consistent bullish atmosphere.

That is, the bears on the surface have been completely dead.

The so-called bears do not die, and the bulls do not stop, so that no one in the entire market continues to be bearish, so the profit chips in the field will naturally fall into a short-term lock-up and further rapid accumulation of the situation.

In this situation, once the bulls are weak, they cannot fully support the continuous sharp upward breakthrough of the disk.

Then, a large number of profit-taking orders that continue to lock up positions now are bound to pour out profit-making orders.

At that time, the market will naturally have a continuous and drastic adjustment to digest the profit-making chips that are pouring out of these smashing orders.

However, at present, the turnover of the two cities is already approaching the trillion mark.

Moreover, the new incremental energy rate in the near future is gradually decreasing.

In other words, the active capital groups that can be added to the market in the short and medium term have almost all entered the market.

Subsequently, with the transformation of the macro capital side and the further release of monetary liquidity, even if there are still large-scale new capital groups waiting to enter the market, it will take enough time to react and brew.

Therefore, if the current market bullish and bearish forces reverse, the market will fall into a correction.

In order to fully digest the huge profit-taking chips since 3000 points, as well as the huge unhedging chips added above 3000 points.

It definitely takes a lot of time to digest.

That is, the space and timing of a possible market correction will surprise most of the current investor groups.

Of course, even if the possible market adjustment space and time will be somewhat, it will still be a benign adjustment when the underlying logic of the bull market still exists.

It just comes down to the transaction......

Now that we have seen that there is a high probability that there will be a benign correction point with a long time and space adjustment time, if the corresponding trading strategy change is not made, it will inevitably lead to a sharp drawdown in the net value of the fund product, or it will waste a lot of follow-up market opportunities.

What's more, at the end of each year.

Basically, it is the day when the industry institutions adjust their positions or settle the net value of the corresponding fund products.

At this juncture, the capital situation will not be particularly abundant, and the market has begun to overdraft expectations, and it is difficult to hit a new height space.

At least among the majority of investors in the market, the consensus expectation is that the Shanghai Composite Index will hit the 4,000-point mark upward.

A high probability is unlikely.

Therefore, I suggest that we can actually start to prepare for the net value liquidation at the end of the year, gradually reduce the position weight of our fund products, and gradually reduce positions and take profits in the order of weak and strong individual stock positions.

Only at this time, reduce the position and take profit, vacate the position, and leave the amount of money.

Then wait for the serious accumulation of profit-taking orders and unhedging funds in the market to smash out, so that we can regain what we believe to be the core main line high-quality chips at the subsequent relative pullback low. ”

"But before Master leaves, didn't he tell us to maintain the dynamic position level and not change it?" Liu Yuan listened to Zhang Guobing's analysis of the disk, and subconsciously retorted, "And the current market, there is indeed no trace of possible adjustment, whether it is the main line weight of popular stocks, or a number of marginal main line stocks, the disk is very good, the market loss effect is basically nothing, and today's market volume is still increasing." ”

Zhang Guobing then responded: "Although there is no trace of adjustment in the current market, it can be perceived that even in the core main line area, the disk trend between strong popular stocks and general core main line constituent stocks has shown a completely differentiated situation.

What's more, as we all know, our company has several main fund products.

The current total volume of positions has reached the scale of 200 billion, such a large scale of positions, if we really have to wait until the market situation completely changes, or the majority of investors in the market, most of them have realized that the market has turned long and short at the moment, and then we will reduce positions and take profits......

I believe that with our 'Yu Hang system' related trading seats, for the current influence of the entire market.

There is a high probability that we will not be able to get out, and we will not be able to achieve the effect of the trading strategy we need at all.

After all, our amount of funds, really large-scale in a short period of time to take profit, is not able to hide on the disk, and once revealed on the two cities of the dragon and tiger list, other major capital groups, as well as a large number of retail groups to smash, then don't think about reducing positions and taking profit successfully.

Therefore, we must anticipate the changes in the market and make a good change in the effect strategy in advance. ”

"What the national soldiers said is reasonable." After listening to all of Zhang Guobing's analysis opinions, Li Meng pondered carefully for a moment, nodded with a smile, and responded, "The most essential difference between small funds and large funds in terms of investment strategy is liquidity.

Whether it is in the position opening stage or in the position reduction stage.

Once the market goes to the pattern of long and short cards, we start to implement the corresponding investment strategy, which is very unfavorable.

The so-called bull market does not mean that the market can keep rising, we insist on the long-term bull market thinking, but in the control of the retracement, we still have to pay special attention.

At the same time, under the execution of the corresponding policy.

In the case of preferential liquidity, we also need to learn to actively give up certain profits that seem to be easy to obtain, so as to avoid some possible risks.

When Mr. Su left, he did say that he would keep the dynamic position level of the fund unchanged.

However, it has also been said that if there are extreme market changes in the market, we still have to learn to actively adjust our strategies to deal with extreme market conditions. ”

After speaking, Li Meng glanced at everyone with a smile.

Subsequently, seeing that everyone had no other opinions, he was ready to continue to instruct everyone to change the previous investment strategy in a timely manner, and gradually reduce the position and take profit of the stocks held by each major fund product in accordance with the idea of 'from weak to strong' as Zhang Guobing said.

But I don't want to, at this time......

Su Yu suddenly pushed open the door of the trading room and walked in with a smile. (End of chapter)